Bluegreen Vacations 500
Phoenix Raceway, November 10, 2019
Denny Hamlin
Winner
312
Laps
39
Entries
5
Leaders
Denny Hamlin won the 2019 Bluegreen Vacations 500 at Phoenix Raceway on November 10, 2019, leading 143 of 312 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Ryan Blaney rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, November 10, 2019
Track
Season
2019
Winner
Leaders
5 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | +2 | Denny Hamlin |
| 2 | 1 | -1 | Kyle Busch |
| 3 | 10 | +7 | Ryan Blaney |
| 4 | 5 | +1 | Kyle Larson |
| 5 | 7 | +2 | Kevin Harvick |
| 6 | 4 | -2 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 7 | 9 | +2 | Erik Jones |
| 8 | 13 | +5 | Clint Bowyer |
| 9 | 2 | -7 | Joey Logano |
| 10 | 12 | +2 | Brad Keselowski |
| 11 | 8 | -3 | Kurt Busch |
| 12 | 19 | +7 | Paul Menard |
| 13 | 16 | +3 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 14 | 22 | +8 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 15 | 15 | — | Daniel Suarez |
| 16 | 17 | +1 | Chris Buescher |
| 17 | 18 | +1 | William Byron |
| 18 | 20 | +2 | Ryan Newman |
| 19 | 24 | +5 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 20 | 29 | +9 | Ty Dillon |
| 21 | 27 | +6 | Daniel Hemric |
| 22 | 11 | -11 | Aric Almirola |
| 23 | 14 | -9 | Alex Bowman |
| 24 | 28 | +4 | Austin Dillon |
| 25 | 23 | -2 | Bubba Wallace |
| 26 | 25 | -1 | Ryan Preece |
| 27 | 26 | -1 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 28 | 32 | +4 | Ross Chastain |
| 29 | 39 | +10 | J.J. Yeley |
| 30 | 21 | -9 | Michael McDowell |
| 31 | 35 | +4 | Garrett Smithley |
| 32 | 34 | +2 | Bayley Currey |
| 33 | 33 | — | Landon Cassill |
| 34 | 36 | +2 | Joe Nemechek |
| 35 | 31 | -4 | Corey LaJoie |
| 36 | 30 | -6 | David Ragan |
| 37 | 37 | — | Reed Sorenson |
| 38 | 38 | — | Joey Gase |
| 39 | 6 | -33 | Chase Elliott |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 24 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.1 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 1 | +5.8 |
| 3 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 3 | +3.8 |
| 4 | Kyle Larson | 10.3 | 4 | +6.3 |
| 6 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 14.0 | 6 | +8.0 |
| 7 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 7 | +10.7 |
| 9 | Joey Logano | 10.3 | 9 | +1.3 |
| 10 | Brad Keselowski | 13.8 | 10 | +3.8 |
| 14 | Jimmie Johnson | 18.0 | 14 | +4.0 |
| 15 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 15 | -1.0 |
| 16 | Chris Buescher | 12.0 | 16 | -4.0 |
| 17 | William Byron | 10.8 | 17 | -6.2 |
| 19 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.4 | 19 | +1.4 |
| 20 | Ty Dillon | 23.1 | 20 | +3.1 |
| 23 | Alex Bowman | 15.6 | 23 | -7.4 |
| 24 | Austin Dillon | 17.7 | 24 | -6.3 |
| 25 | Bubba Wallace | 12.6 | 25 | -12.4 |
| 26 | Ryan Preece | 12.6 | 26 | -13.4 |
| 27 | John Hunter Nemechek | 19.0 | 27 | -8.0 |
| 28 | Ross Chastain | 12.6 | 28 | -15.4 |
| 29 | J.J. Yeley | 27.3 | 29 | -1.7 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Denny Hamlin: has 28 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 10.6 avg finish (1 win) — the model correctly identified this strength.
- Erik Jones: was the biggest surprise, finishing P7 vs predicted P18. Track history: 22 starts, 16.0 avg finish.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2019 Bluegreen Vacations 500?
Denny Hamlin won the 2019 Bluegreen Vacations 500 at Phoenix Raceway driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Where was the 2019 Bluegreen Vacations 500 held?
The 2019 Bluegreen Vacations 500 was held at Phoenix Raceway on November 10, 2019.