Federated Auto Parts 400
Richmond Raceway — September 21, 2019
Martin Truex, Jr.
Winner
400
Laps
20
Entries
3
Leaders
Martin Truex, Jr. won the 2019 Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond Raceway on September 21, 2019, leading 109 of 400 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Denny Hamlin rounded out the podium. The race featured 3 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, September 21, 2019
Track
Season
2019
Winner
Leaders
3 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | +16 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 2 | 12 | +10 | Kyle Busch |
| 3 | 3 | — | Denny Hamlin |
| 4 | 8 | +4 | Brad Keselowski |
| 5 | 25 | +20 | Ryan Newman |
| 6 | 13 | +7 | Kyle Larson |
| 7 | 1 | -6 | Kevin Harvick |
| 8 | 24 | +16 | Clint Bowyer |
| 9 | 7 | -2 | Daniel Suarez |
| 10 | 23 | +13 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 11 | 11 | — | Joey Logano |
| 12 | 22 | +10 | Bubba Wallace |
| 13 | 14 | +1 | Chase Elliott |
| 14 | 10 | -4 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 15 | 9 | -6 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 16 | 6 | -10 | Aric Almirola |
| 17 | 15 | -2 | Ryan Blaney |
| 18 | 4 | -14 | Kurt Busch |
| 19 | 26 | +7 | David Ragan |
| 20 | — | — | Matt Tifft |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | 3 | 4 | — | 15 |
| Kevin Harvick | 1 | 6 | — | 15 |
| Aric Almirola | — | 1 | — | 10 |
| Clint Bowyer | 2 | — | — | 9 |
| Kyle Busch | 5 | 9 | — | 8 |
| Jimmie Johnson | — | 3 | — | 8 |
| Joey Logano | — | 5 | — | 6 |
| Kurt Busch | 7 | — | — | 4 |
| Daniel Suarez | — | 8 | — | 3 |
| Ryan Blaney | 9 | — | — | 2 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Denny Hamlin | — | — | — | — |
| Brad Keselowski | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Newman | — | — | — | — |
| Bubba Wallace | — | — | — | — |
| Chase Elliott | — | — | — | — |
| Matt DiBenedetto | — | — | — | — |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| David Ragan | — | — | — | — |
| Matt Tifft | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 12 matched drivers, the model averaged 6.5 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Good
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 13.8 | 1 | +12.8 |
| 2 | Kyle Busch | 15.6 | 2 | +13.6 |
| 3 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 3 | +3.8 |
| 4 | Brad Keselowski | 12.0 | 4 | +8.0 |
| 6 | Kyle Larson | 8.6 | 6 | +2.6 |
| 9 | Daniel Suarez | 15.6 | 9 | +6.6 |
| 10 | Jimmie Johnson | 17.7 | 10 | +7.7 |
| 11 | Joey Logano | 12.1 | 11 | +1.1 |
| 12 | Bubba Wallace | 14.0 | 12 | +2.0 |
| 13 | Chase Elliott | 8.3 | 13 | -4.7 |
| 15 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.1 | 15 | +5.1 |
| 17 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 17 | -10.2 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Martin Truex, Jr.: has 18 career starts at Richmond Raceway with a 11.2 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 27 career starts at Richmond Raceway with a 9.8 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P3 on the day.
- Kyle Busch: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P16. Track history: 34 starts, 10.2 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2019 Federated Auto Parts 400?
Martin Truex, Jr. won the 2019 Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond Raceway driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Where was the 2019 Federated Auto Parts 400 held?
The 2019 Federated Auto Parts 400 was held at Richmond Raceway on September 21, 2019.