Bluegreen Vacations 500
Phoenix Raceway — November 10, 2019
Denny Hamlin
Winner
312
Laps
20
Entries
5
Leaders
Denny Hamlin won the 2019 Bluegreen Vacations 500 at Phoenix Raceway on November 10, 2019, leading 143 of 312 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Ryan Blaney rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, November 10, 2019
Track
Season
2019
Winner
Leaders
5 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | +4 | Denny Hamlin |
| 2 | 17 | +15 | Kyle Busch |
| 3 | 3 | — | Ryan Blaney |
| 4 | 16 | +12 | Kyle Larson |
| 5 | 13 | +8 | Kevin Harvick |
| 6 | 23 | +17 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 7 | 4 | -3 | Erik Jones |
| 8 | 8 | — | Clint Bowyer |
| 9 | 7 | -2 | Joey Logano |
| 10 | 12 | +2 | Brad Keselowski |
| 11 | 27 | +16 | Kurt Busch |
| 12 | 9 | -3 | Paul Menard |
| 13 | 21 | +8 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 14 | 10 | -4 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 15 | 20 | +5 | Daniel Suarez |
| 16 | 25 | +9 | Chris Buescher |
| 17 | 2 | -15 | William Byron |
| 18 | 11 | -7 | Ryan Newman |
| 19 | 19 | — | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 20 | 24 | +4 | Ty Dillon |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Logano | 4 | 1 | — | 17 |
| Brad Keselowski | 3 | 4 | — | 15 |
| Ryan Blaney | 7 | 2 | — | 13 |
| Clint Bowyer | 2 | 8 | — | 12 |
| Kyle Busch | 6 | 5 | — | 11 |
| Ty Dillon | 1 | — | — | 10 |
| Ryan Newman | — | 3 | — | 8 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 5 | — | — | 6 |
| Kurt Busch | — | 6 | — | 5 |
| Chris Buescher | — | 7 | — | 4 |
| Paul Menard | 8 | — | — | 3 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 9 | — | — | 2 |
| Daniel Suarez | — | 10 | — | 1 |
| Denny Hamlin | — | — | — | — |
| Kyle Larson | — | — | — | — |
| Kevin Harvick | — | — | — | — |
| Erik Jones | — | — | — | — |
| Matt DiBenedetto | — | — | — | — |
| William Byron | — | — | — | — |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 14 matched drivers, the model averaged 5.2 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Good
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 1 | +5.8 |
| 2 | Kyle Busch | 15.6 | 2 | +13.6 |
| 3 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 3 | +3.8 |
| 4 | Kyle Larson | 8.6 | 4 | +4.6 |
| 6 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 13.8 | 6 | +7.8 |
| 7 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 7 | +10.7 |
| 9 | Joey Logano | 12.1 | 9 | +3.1 |
| 10 | Brad Keselowski | 12.0 | 10 | +2.0 |
| 14 | Jimmie Johnson | 17.7 | 14 | +3.7 |
| 15 | Daniel Suarez | 15.6 | 15 | +0.6 |
| 16 | Chris Buescher | 10.3 | 16 | -5.7 |
| 17 | William Byron | 10.3 | 17 | -6.7 |
| 19 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.1 | 19 | +1.1 |
| 20 | Ty Dillon | 24.3 | 20 | +4.3 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Denny Hamlin: has 29 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 11.5 avg finish (1 win) — the model correctly identified this strength.
- Kyle Busch: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P16. Track history: 34 starts, 7.1 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2019 Bluegreen Vacations 500?
Denny Hamlin won the 2019 Bluegreen Vacations 500 at Phoenix Raceway driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Where was the 2019 Bluegreen Vacations 500 held?
The 2019 Bluegreen Vacations 500 was held at Phoenix Raceway on November 10, 2019.