Drydene 400
Dover Motor Speedway — October 6, 2019
Kyle Larson
Winner
400
Laps
21
Entries
9
Leaders
Kyle Larson won the 2019 Drydene 400 at Dover Motor Speedway on October 6, 2019, leading 154 of 400 laps. Martin Truex, Jr. finished second; Alex Bowman rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, October 6, 2019
Track
Season
2019
Winner
Leaders
9 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | +5 | Kyle Larson |
| 2 | 3 | +1 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 3 | 12 | +9 | Alex Bowman |
| 4 | 2 | -2 | Kevin Harvick |
| 5 | 1 | -4 | Denny Hamlin |
| 6 | 4 | -2 | Kyle Busch |
| 7 | 21 | +14 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 8 | 18 | +10 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 9 | 13 | +4 | Kurt Busch |
| 10 | 10 | — | Clint Bowyer |
| 11 | 8 | -3 | Brad Keselowski |
| 12 | 19 | +7 | Paul Menard |
| 13 | 9 | -4 | William Byron |
| 14 | 17 | +3 | Daniel Suarez |
| 15 | 16 | +1 | Erik Jones |
| 16 | 23 | +7 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 17 | 14 | -3 | Aric Almirola |
| 18 | 22 | +4 | Austin Dillon |
| 19 | 26 | +7 | Ryan Preece |
| 20 | 27 | +7 | Bubba Wallace |
| 23 | 24 | +1 | Ty Dillon |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | 2 | 3 | — | 17 |
| Clint Bowyer | 7 | 10 | — | 5 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 9 | 9 | — | 4 |
| William Byron | 8 | — | — | 3 |
| Erik Jones | — | 8 | — | 3 |
| Austin Dillon | 10 | — | — | 1 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 1 | 4 | — | — |
| Alex Bowman | — | — | — | — |
| Kevin Harvick | 4 | 2 | — | — |
| Denny Hamlin | 5 | 5 | — | — |
| Kyle Busch | 3 | 1 | — | — |
| Matt DiBenedetto | — | — | — | — |
| Kurt Busch | — | — | — | — |
| Brad Keselowski | — | — | — | — |
| Paul Menard | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | — | — | — |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Aric Almirola | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Preece | — | — | — | — |
| Bubba Wallace | — | — | — | — |
| Ty Dillon | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 15 matched drivers, the model averaged 5.3 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Good
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Larson | 8.6 | 1 | +7.6 |
| 2 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 13.8 | 2 | +11.8 |
| 3 | Alex Bowman | 14.0 | 3 | +11.0 |
| 5 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 5 | +1.8 |
| 6 | Kyle Busch | 15.6 | 6 | +9.6 |
| 8 | Jimmie Johnson | 17.7 | 8 | +9.7 |
| 11 | Brad Keselowski | 12.0 | 11 | +1.0 |
| 13 | William Byron | 10.3 | 13 | -2.7 |
| 14 | Daniel Suarez | 15.6 | 14 | +1.6 |
| 15 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 15 | +2.7 |
| 16 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.1 | 16 | +4.1 |
| 18 | Austin Dillon | 17.0 | 18 | -1.0 |
| 19 | Ryan Preece | 10.8 | 19 | -8.2 |
| 20 | Bubba Wallace | 14.0 | 20 | -6.0 |
| 23 | Ty Dillon | 24.3 | 23 | +1.3 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kyle Larson: has 13 career starts at Dover Motor Speedway with a 10.2 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 14 career starts at Dover Motor Speedway with a 11.8 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P5 on the day.
- Martin Truex, Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P14. Track history: 14 starts, 8.0 avg finish.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2019 Drydene 400?
Kyle Larson won the 2019 Drydene 400 at Dover Motor Speedway driving for Chip Ganassi Racing.
Where was the 2019 Drydene 400 held?
The 2019 Drydene 400 was held at Dover Motor Speedway on October 6, 2019.