NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT MIAMI
Homestead-Miami Speedway, November 16, 2019
Tyler Reddick
Winner
200
Laps
38
Entries
6
Leaders
Tyler Reddick won the 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT MIAMI at Homestead-Miami Speedway on November 16, 2019, leading 84 of 200 laps. Cole Custer finished second; Chase Briscoe rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, November 16, 2019
Track
Season
2019
Winner
Leaders
6 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | — | Tyler Reddick |
| 2 | 2 | — | Cole Custer |
| 3 | 5 | +2 | Chase Briscoe |
| 4 | 10 | +6 | Noah Gragson |
| 5 | 7 | +2 | Christopher Bell |
| 6 | 6 | — | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 7 | 3 | -4 | Austin Cindric |
| 8 | 4 | -4 | Brandon Jones |
| 9 | 18 | +9 | Jeb Burton |
| 10 | 9 | -1 | Harrison Burton |
| 11 | 20 | +9 | Michael Annett |
| 12 | 14 | +2 | Ryan Sieg |
| 13 | 23 | +10 | Brandon Brown |
| 14 | 16 | +2 | Justin Allgaier |
| 15 | 13 | -2 | Landon Cassill |
| 16 | 11 | -5 | Jeremy Clements |
| 17 | 26 | +9 | Gray Gaulding |
| 18 | 17 | -1 | Alex Labbe |
| 19 | 22 | +3 | Josh Williams |
| 20 | 12 | -8 | B.J. McLeod |
| 21 | 15 | -6 | Colin Garrett |
| 22 | 32 | +10 | Will Rodgers |
| 23 | 25 | +2 | David Starr |
| 24 | 21 | -3 | Stephen Leicht |
| 25 | 36 | +11 | Jairo Avila Jr. |
| 26 | 37 | +11 | Vinnie Miller |
| 27 | 35 | +8 | Joey Gase |
| 28 | 33 | +5 | Robby Lyons |
| 29 | 38 | +9 | Joe Nemechek |
| 30 | 28 | -2 | Matt Mills |
| 31 | 27 | -4 | C.J. McLaughlin |
| 32 | 31 | -1 | Garrett Smithley |
| 33 | 8 | -25 | Justin Haley |
| 34 | 24 | -10 | Timmy Hill |
| 35 | 29 | -6 | Chad Finchum |
| 36 | 19 | -17 | J.J. Yeley |
| 37 | 34 | -3 | Tyler Matthews |
| 38 | 30 | -8 | Ray Black, Jr. |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 15 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.6 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyler Reddick | 11.2 | 1 | +10.2 |
| 2 | Cole Custer | 22.0 | 2 | +20.0 |
| 3 | Chase Briscoe | 7.8 | 3 | +4.8 |
| 4 | Noah Gragson | 22.9 | 4 | +18.9 |
| 5 | Christopher Bell | 9.2 | 5 | +4.2 |
| 6 | John Hunter Nemechek | 18.3 | 6 | +12.3 |
| 7 | Austin Cindric | 15.4 | 7 | +8.4 |
| 14 | Justin Allgaier | 17.1 | 14 | +3.1 |
| 20 | B.J. McLeod | 24.7 | 20 | +4.7 |
| 23 | David Starr | 21.0 | 23 | -2.0 |
| 27 | Joey Gase | 22.9 | 27 | -4.1 |
| 33 | Justin Haley | 20.9 | 33 | -12.1 |
| 34 | Timmy Hill | 23.9 | 34 | -10.1 |
| 35 | Chad Finchum | 28.2 | 35 | -6.8 |
| 36 | J.J. Yeley | 28.6 | 36 | -7.4 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Tyler Reddick: has 13 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 8.5 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Chase Briscoe: was the model’s top pick based on 10 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 11.2 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P3 on the day.
- Cole Custer: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P22. Track history: 11 starts, 13.1 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT MIAMI?
Tyler Reddick won the 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT MIAMI at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Where was the 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT MIAMI held?
The 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT MIAMI was held at Homestead-Miami Speedway on November 16, 2019.