Food City presents the Supermarket Heroes 500
Bristol Motor Speedway, May 31, 2020
Brad Keselowski
Winner
500
Laps
40
Entries
8
Leaders
Brad Keselowski won the 2020 Food City presents the Supermarket Heroes 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway on May 31, 2020, leading 115 of 500 laps. Clint Bowyer finished second; Jimmie Johnson rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, May 31, 2020
Track
Season
2020
Winner
Leaders
8 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | — | Brad Keselowski |
| 2 | 23 | +21 | Clint Bowyer |
| 3 | 24 | +21 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 4 | 7 | +3 | Kyle Busch |
| 5 | 15 | +10 | Erik Jones |
| 6 | 20 | +14 | Austin Dillon |
| 7 | 12 | +5 | Kurt Busch |
| 8 | 13 | +5 | William Byron |
| 9 | 35 | +26 | Christopher Bell |
| 10 | 36 | +26 | Bubba Wallace |
| 11 | 8 | -3 | Kevin Harvick |
| 12 | 33 | +21 | Ryan Preece |
| 13 | 18 | +5 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 14 | 25 | +11 | Michael McDowell |
| 15 | 17 | +2 | Ryan Newman |
| 16 | 14 | -2 | Matt Kenseth |
| 17 | 10 | -7 | Denny Hamlin |
| 18 | 37 | +19 | Daniel Suarez |
| 19 | 38 | +19 | Timmy Hill |
| 20 | 5 | -15 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 21 | 3 | -18 | Joey Logano |
| 22 | 6 | -16 | Chase Elliott |
| 23 | 19 | -4 | Chris Buescher |
| 24 | 34 | +10 | Brennan Poole |
| 25 | 40 | +15 | J.J. Yeley |
| 26 | 31 | +5 | Garrett Smithley |
| 27 | 28 | +1 | Quin Houff |
| 28 | 39 | +11 | B.J. McLeod |
| 29 | 2 | -27 | Aric Almirola |
| 30 | 30 | — | Gray Gaulding |
| 31 | 9 | -22 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 32 | 32 | — | Corey LaJoie |
| 33 | 27 | -6 | Joey Gase |
| 34 | 16 | -18 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 35 | 22 | -13 | Cole Custer |
| 36 | 21 | -15 | Tyler Reddick |
| 37 | 11 | -26 | Alex Bowman |
| 38 | 26 | -12 | Bayley Currey |
| 39 | 29 | -10 | Ty Dillon |
| 40 | 4 | -36 | Ryan Blaney |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Elliott | 1 | 1 | — | 20 |
| Kevin Harvick | 6 | 3 | — | 13 |
| Joey Logano | 5 | 4 | — | 13 |
| Denny Hamlin | 8 | 2 | — | 12 |
| Brad Keselowski | 3 | 9 | — | 10 |
| Ryan Blaney | 2 | — | — | 9 |
| Aric Almirola | 4 | — | — | 7 |
| Kyle Busch | — | 5 | — | 6 |
| Clint Bowyer | — | 6 | — | 5 |
| William Byron | — | 7 | — | 4 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 7 | — | — | 4 |
| Erik Jones | — | 8 | — | 3 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 9 | — | — | 2 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 10 | — | — | 1 |
| Chris Buescher | — | 10 | — | 1 |
| Austin Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Kurt Busch | — | — | — | — |
| Christopher Bell | — | — | — | — |
| Bubba Wallace | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Preece | — | — | — | — |
| John Hunter Nemechek | — | — | — | — |
| Michael McDowell | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Newman | — | — | — | — |
| Matt Kenseth | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | — | — | — |
| Timmy Hill | — | — | — | — |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Brennan Poole | — | — | — | — |
| J.J. Yeley | — | — | — | — |
| Garrett Smithley | — | — | — | — |
| Quin Houff | — | — | — | — |
| B.J. McLeod | — | — | — | — |
| Gray Gaulding | — | — | — | — |
| Corey LaJoie | — | — | — | — |
| Joey Gase | — | — | — | — |
| Cole Custer | — | — | — | — |
| Tyler Reddick | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Bowman | — | — | — | — |
| Bayley Currey | — | — | — | — |
| Ty Dillon | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 28 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.6 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Keselowski | 13.8 | 1 | +12.8 |
| 3 | Jimmie Johnson | 18.0 | 3 | +15.0 |
| 5 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 5 | +12.7 |
| 6 | Austin Dillon | 17.7 | 6 | +11.7 |
| 8 | William Byron | 10.8 | 8 | +2.8 |
| 9 | Christopher Bell | 8.3 | 9 | -0.7 |
| 10 | Bubba Wallace | 12.6 | 10 | +2.6 |
| 12 | Ryan Preece | 12.6 | 12 | +0.6 |
| 13 | John Hunter Nemechek | 19.0 | 13 | +6.0 |
| 14 | Michael McDowell | 15.6 | 14 | +1.6 |
| 17 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 17 | -10.2 |
| 18 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 18 | -4.0 |
| 19 | Timmy Hill | 23.1 | 19 | +4.1 |
| 20 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 14.0 | 20 | -6.0 |
| 21 | Joey Logano | 10.3 | 21 | -10.7 |
| 22 | Chase Elliott | 9.9 | 22 | -12.1 |
| 23 | Chris Buescher | 12.0 | 23 | -11.0 |
| 24 | Brennan Poole | 23.0 | 24 | -1.0 |
| 25 | J.J. Yeley | 27.3 | 25 | +2.3 |
| 28 | B.J. McLeod | 24.9 | 28 | -3.1 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Brad Keselowski: has 50 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.6 avg finish (5 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 49 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.5 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P17 on the day.
- Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P18. Track history: 43 starts, 13.8 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2020 Food City presents the Supermarket Heroes 500?
Brad Keselowski won the 2020 Food City presents the Supermarket Heroes 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway driving for Team Penske.
Where was the 2020 Food City presents the Supermarket Heroes 500 held?
The 2020 Food City presents the Supermarket Heroes 500 was held at Bristol Motor Speedway on May 31, 2020.