Toyota 500
Darlington Raceway — May 20, 2020
Denny Hamlin
Winner
212
Laps
38
Entries
13
Leaders
Denny Hamlin won the 2020 Toyota 500 at Darlington Raceway on May 20, 2020, leading 12 of 212 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Kevin Harvick rounded out the podium. The race featured 13 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Wednesday, May 20, 2020
Track
Season
2020
Winner
Leaders
13 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | +2 | Denny Hamlin |
| 2 | 4 | +2 | Kyle Busch |
| 3 | 9 | +6 | Kevin Harvick |
| 4 | 8 | +4 | Brad Keselowski |
| 5 | 19 | +14 | Erik Jones |
| 6 | 6 | — | Joey Logano |
| 7 | 1 | -6 | Aric Almirola |
| 8 | 12 | +4 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 9 | 21 | +12 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 10 | 11 | +1 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 11 | 36 | +25 | Christopher Bell |
| 12 | 16 | +4 | William Byron |
| 13 | 15 | +2 | Tyler Reddick |
| 14 | 13 | -1 | Ryan Newman |
| 15 | 7 | -8 | Kurt Busch |
| 16 | 23 | +7 | Bubba Wallace |
| 17 | 26 | +9 | Michael McDowell |
| 18 | 10 | -8 | Alex Bowman |
| 19 | 34 | +15 | Ty Dillon |
| 20 | 17 | -3 | Austin Dillon |
| 21 | — | — | Ryan Newman |
| 22 | 18 | -4 | Clint Bowyer |
| 23 | — | — | Bubba Wallace |
| 24 | — | — | Erik Jones |
| 25 | — | — | Chris Buescher |
| 26 | — | — | Daniel Suarez |
| 27 | 37 | +10 | Daniel Suarez |
| 28 | — | — | Christopher Bell |
| 29 | — | — | J.J. Yeley |
| 30 | — | — | James Davison |
| 31 | — | — | Garrett Smithley |
| 32 | — | — | Quin Houff |
| 33 | — | — | Timmy Hill |
| 34 | — | — | Joey Gase |
| 35 | — | — | Corey LaJoie |
| 36 | — | — | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 37 | 27 | -10 | Brennan Poole |
| 38 | 5 | -33 | Chase Elliott |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Logano | 1 | 2 | — | 19 |
| Aric Almirola | 2 | 1 | — | 19 |
| Kyle Busch | 4 | 8 | — | 10 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 7 | 5 | — | 10 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 13 | 3 | — | 8 |
| Alex Bowman | 9 | 6 | — | 7 |
| Chase Elliott | 5 | 10 | — | 7 |
| Kurt Busch | 6 | 24 | — | 5 |
| Kevin Harvick | 34 | 7 | — | 4 |
| Brad Keselowski | 8 | 15 | — | 3 |
| Denny Hamlin | 36 | 9 | — | 2 |
| Erik Jones | 10 | 38 | — | 1 |
| Ryan Newman | — | — | — | — |
| Bubba Wallace | — | — | — | — |
| Erik Jones | — | — | — | — |
| Chris Buescher | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | — | — | — |
| Christopher Bell | — | — | — | — |
| J.J. Yeley | — | — | — | — |
| James Davison | — | — | — | — |
| Garrett Smithley | — | — | — | — |
| Quin Houff | — | — | — | — |
| Timmy Hill | — | — | — | — |
| Joey Gase | — | — | — | — |
| Corey LaJoie | — | — | — | — |
| John Hunter Nemechek | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 24 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.8 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denny Hamlin | 8.2 | 1 | +7.2 |
| 2 | Kyle Busch | 17.0 | 2 | +15.0 |
| 4 | Brad Keselowski | 11.2 | 4 | +7.2 |
| 5 | Erik Jones | 16.7 | 5 | +11.7 |
| 6 | Joey Logano | 14.7 | 6 | +8.7 |
| 8 | Jimmie Johnson | 19.9 | 8 | +11.9 |
| 10 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 10 | +5.4 |
| 11 | Christopher Bell | 10.7 | 11 | -0.3 |
| 12 | William Byron | 10.7 | 12 | -1.3 |
| 13 | Tyler Reddick | 6.2 | 13 | -6.8 |
| 16 | Bubba Wallace | 12.7 | 16 | -3.3 |
| 17 | Michael McDowell | 17.0 | 17 | 0.0 |
| 18 | Alex Bowman | 13.5 | 18 | -4.5 |
| 19 | Ty Dillon | 23.4 | 19 | +4.4 |
| 20 | Austin Dillon | 17.1 | 20 | -2.9 |
| 25 | Chris Buescher | 9.2 | 25 | -15.8 |
| 26 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 26 | -12.0 |
| 29 | J.J. Yeley | 28.8 | 29 | -0.2 |
| 33 | Timmy Hill | 23.9 | 33 | -9.1 |
| 34 | Joey Gase | 23.4 | 34 | -10.6 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Denny Hamlin: has 41 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 7.6 avg finish (10 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Tyler Reddick: was the model’s top pick based on 21 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 13.4 avg finish (1 win), finishing P13 on the day.
- Kyle Busch: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P17. Track history: 42 starts, 14.1 avg finish.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2020 Toyota 500?
Denny Hamlin won the 2020 Toyota 500 at Darlington Raceway driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Where was the 2020 Toyota 500 held?
The 2020 Toyota 500 was held at Darlington Raceway on May 20, 2020.