Toyota 500
Darlington Raceway, May 20, 2020
Denny Hamlin
Winner
208
Laps
39
Entries
13
Leaders
Denny Hamlin won the 2020 Toyota 500 at Darlington Raceway on May 20, 2020, leading 12 of 208 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Kevin Harvick rounded out the podium. The race featured 13 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Wednesday, May 20, 2020
Track
Season
2020
Winner
Leaders
13 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16 | +15 | Denny Hamlin |
| 2 | 26 | +24 | Kyle Busch |
| 3 | 20 | +17 | Kevin Harvick |
| 4 | 8 | +4 | Brad Keselowski |
| 5 | 13 | +8 | Erik Jones |
| 6 | 3 | -3 | Joey Logano |
| 7 | 9 | +2 | Aric Almirola |
| 8 | 37 | +29 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 9 | 7 | -2 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 10 | 15 | +5 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 11 | 24 | +13 | Christopher Bell |
| 12 | 34 | +22 | William Byron |
| 13 | 14 | +1 | Tyler Reddick |
| 14 | 6 | -8 | Ryan Newman |
| 15 | 18 | +3 | Kurt Busch |
| 16 | 21 | +5 | Bubba Wallace |
| 17 | 23 | +6 | Michael McDowell |
| 18 | 19 | +1 | Alex Bowman |
| 19 | 2 | -17 | Ty Dillon |
| 20 | 10 | -10 | Austin Dillon |
| 21 | 5 | -16 | Ryan Blaney |
| 22 | 4 | -18 | Clint Bowyer |
| 23 | 32 | +9 | Chris Buescher |
| 24 | 31 | +7 | Corey LaJoie |
| 25 | 39 | +14 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 26 | 35 | +9 | Quin Houff |
| 27 | 25 | -2 | Daniel Suarez |
| 28 | 29 | +1 | J.J. Yeley |
| 29 | 30 | +1 | Joey Gase |
| 30 | 11 | -19 | Matt Kenseth |
| 31 | 22 | -9 | Cole Custer |
| 32 | 28 | -4 | Gray Gaulding |
| 33 | 33 | — | Timmy Hill |
| 34 | 36 | +2 | Garrett Smithley |
| 35 | 12 | -23 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 36 | 38 | +2 | B.J. McLeod |
| 37 | 27 | -10 | Brennan Poole |
| 38 | 17 | -21 | Chase Elliott |
| 39 | 1 | -38 | Ryan Preece |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clint Bowyer | 1 | 1 | — | 20 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 2 | 3 | — | 17 |
| Chase Elliott | 7 | 2 | — | 13 |
| Alex Bowman | 4 | 8 | — | 10 |
| Joey Logano | 5 | 9 | — | 8 |
| Ryan Blaney | 3 | — | — | 8 |
| Denny Hamlin | 8 | 7 | — | 7 |
| Erik Jones | — | 4 | — | 7 |
| Kevin Harvick | — | 5 | — | 6 |
| Aric Almirola | 6 | — | — | 5 |
| William Byron | — | 6 | — | 5 |
| Matt Kenseth | 9 | — | — | 2 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | — | 10 | — | 1 |
| Ryan Preece | 10 | — | — | 1 |
| Kyle Busch | — | — | — | — |
| Brad Keselowski | — | — | — | — |
| Jimmie Johnson | — | — | — | — |
| Christopher Bell | — | — | — | — |
| Tyler Reddick | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Newman | — | — | — | — |
| Kurt Busch | — | — | — | — |
| Bubba Wallace | — | — | — | — |
| Michael McDowell | — | — | — | — |
| Ty Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Chris Buescher | — | — | — | — |
| Corey LaJoie | — | — | — | — |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Quin Houff | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | — | — | — |
| J.J. Yeley | — | — | — | — |
| Joey Gase | — | — | — | — |
| Cole Custer | — | — | — | — |
| Gray Gaulding | — | — | — | — |
| Timmy Hill | — | — | — | — |
| Garrett Smithley | — | — | — | — |
| John Hunter Nemechek | — | — | — | — |
| B.J. McLeod | — | — | — | — |
| Brennan Poole | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 28 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.3 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denny Hamlin | 6.2 | 1 | +5.2 |
| 4 | Brad Keselowski | 15.4 | 4 | +11.4 |
| 5 | Erik Jones | 14.7 | 5 | +9.7 |
| 6 | Joey Logano | 11.9 | 6 | +5.9 |
| 8 | Jimmie Johnson | 19.9 | 8 | +11.9 |
| 10 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 10 | +5.4 |
| 11 | Christopher Bell | 9.2 | 11 | -1.8 |
| 12 | William Byron | 10.7 | 12 | -1.3 |
| 13 | Tyler Reddick | 11.2 | 13 | -1.8 |
| 16 | Bubba Wallace | 12.7 | 16 | -3.3 |
| 17 | Michael McDowell | 16.9 | 17 | -0.1 |
| 18 | Alex Bowman | 16.2 | 18 | -1.8 |
| 19 | Ty Dillon | 22.9 | 19 | +3.9 |
| 20 | Austin Dillon | 19.9 | 20 | -0.1 |
| 21 | Ryan Blaney | 8.2 | 21 | -12.8 |
| 23 | Chris Buescher | 9.2 | 23 | -13.8 |
| 24 | Corey LaJoie | 22.2 | 24 | -1.8 |
| 25 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19.9 | 25 | -5.1 |
| 27 | Daniel Suarez | 12.7 | 27 | -14.3 |
| 28 | J.J. Yeley | 28.6 | 28 | +0.6 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Denny Hamlin: has 41 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 7.5 avg finish (10 wins) — the model correctly identified this strength.
- Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P8 vs predicted P20. Track history: 29 starts, 16.0 avg finish.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2020 Toyota 500?
Denny Hamlin won the 2020 Toyota 500 at Darlington Raceway driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Where was the 2020 Toyota 500 held?
The 2020 Toyota 500 was held at Darlington Raceway on May 20, 2020.