Food City presents the Supermarket Heroes 500

Bristol Motor Speedway — May 31, 2020

Brad Keselowski
Winner
500
Laps
25
Entries
8
Leaders

Brad Keselowski won the 2020 Food City presents the Supermarket Heroes 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway on May 31, 2020, leading 115 of 500 laps. Clint Bowyer finished second; Jimmie Johnson rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Sunday, May 31, 2020
Season
2020
Leaders
8 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 6 +5 Brad Keselowski
2 15 +13 Clint Bowyer
3 20 +17 Jimmie Johnson
4 1 -3 Kyle Busch
5 16 +11 Erik Jones
6 19 +13 Austin Dillon
7 7 Kurt Busch
8 21 +13 William Byron
9 34 +25 Christopher Bell
10 18 +8 Bubba Wallace
11 3 -8 Kevin Harvick
12 32 +20 Ryan Preece
13 22 +9 John Hunter Nemechek
14 30 +16 Michael McDowell
15 23 +8 Ryan Newman
16 17 +1 Matt Kenseth
17 12 -5 Denny Hamlin
18 37 +19 Daniel Suarez
19 38 +19 Timmy Hill
20 9 -11 Martin Truex, Jr.
21 2 -19 Joey Logano
22 8 -14 Chase Elliott
30 Gray Gaulding
31 10 -21 Matt DiBenedetto
40 11 -29 Ryan Blaney
Stage Results
Driver Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage Pts
Joey Logano 3 4 15
Ryan Blaney 5 2 15
Brad Keselowski 14 1 10
Chase Elliott 2 16 9
Matt DiBenedetto 4 9 9
Martin Truex, Jr. 10 5 7
Kevin Harvick 6 22 5
Austin Dillon 12 7 4
Jimmie Johnson 11 8 3
Kurt Busch 8 12 3
Clint Bowyer 9 13 2
Erik Jones 18 10 1
Gray Gaulding
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 18 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.7 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 Brad Keselowski 12.0 1 +11.0
3 Jimmie Johnson 17.7 3 +14.7
4 Kyle Busch 15.6 4 +11.6
5 Erik Jones 17.7 5 +12.7
6 Austin Dillon 17.0 6 +11.0
8 William Byron 10.3 8 +2.3
9 Christopher Bell 8.6 9 -0.4
10 Bubba Wallace 14.0 10 +4.0
12 Ryan Preece 10.8 12 -1.2
13 John Hunter Nemechek 20.1 13 +7.1
14 Michael McDowell 15.0 14 +1.0
17 Denny Hamlin 6.8 17 -10.2
18 Daniel Suarez 15.6 18 -2.4
19 Timmy Hill 24.3 19 +5.3
20 Martin Truex, Jr. 13.8 20 -6.2
21 Joey Logano 12.1 21 -8.9
22 Chase Elliott 8.3 22 -13.7
40 Ryan Blaney 6.8 40 -33.2

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Brad Keselowski: has 48 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.1 avg finish (5 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 48 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.3 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P17 on the day.
  • Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P18. Track history: 45 starts, 14.7 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2020 Food City presents the Supermarket Heroes 500?
Brad Keselowski won the 2020 Food City presents the Supermarket Heroes 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway driving for Team Penske.
Where was the 2020 Food City presents the Supermarket Heroes 500 held?
The 2020 Food City presents the Supermarket Heroes 500 was held at Bristol Motor Speedway on May 31, 2020.