YellaWood 500
Talladega Superspeedway — October 4, 2020
Denny Hamlin
Winner
200
Laps
29
Entries
18
Leaders
Denny Hamlin won the 2020 YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway on October 4, 2020, leading 26 of 200 laps. Erik Jones finished second; Ty Dillon rounded out the podium. The race featured 18 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, October 4, 2020
Track
Season
2020
Winner
Leaders
18 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | +2 | Denny Hamlin |
| 2 | 11 | +9 | Erik Jones |
| 3 | 25 | +22 | Ty Dillon |
| 4 | 17 | +13 | William Byron |
| 5 | 1 | -4 | Chase Elliott |
| 6 | — | — | Ryan Newman |
| 7 | 29 | +22 | Tyler Reddick |
| 8 | 26 | +18 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 9 | 32 | +23 | Brennan Poole |
| 10 | 20 | +10 | Ryan Preece |
| 11 | — | — | Justin Haley |
| 12 | 30 | +18 | Austin Dillon |
| 13 | 34 | +21 | Quin Houff |
| 14 | 8 | -6 | Alex Bowman |
| 15 | 38 | +23 | Timmy Hill |
| 16 | — | — | Matt Kenseth |
| 17 | 37 | +20 | Joey Gase |
| 18 | 14 | -4 | Brad Keselowski |
| 19 | — | — | Cody Ware |
| 20 | 2 | -18 | Kevin Harvick |
| 21 | 9 | -12 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 22 | 23 | +1 | Chris Buescher |
| 23 | 12 | -11 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 24 | 27 | +3 | Bubba Wallace |
| 25 | 5 | -20 | Ryan Blaney |
| 26 | 13 | -13 | Joey Logano |
| 29 | 21 | -8 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 36 | 22 | -14 | Michael McDowell |
| 37 | 6 | -31 | Aric Almirola |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Harvick | 1 | 2 | — | 19 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 7 | 3 | — | 12 |
| Joey Logano | 3 | 7 | — | 12 |
| Brad Keselowski | 32 | 1 | — | 10 |
| Chase Elliott | 2 | 25 | — | 9 |
| Tyler Reddick | 9 | 4 | — | 9 |
| Aric Almirola | 8 | 6 | — | 8 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 4 | 17 | — | 7 |
| Alex Bowman | 6 | 20 | — | 5 |
| Erik Jones | 10 | 14 | — | 1 |
| Ryan Newman | — | — | — | — |
| Justin Haley | — | — | — | — |
| Matt Kenseth | — | — | — | — |
| Cody Ware | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 23 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.7 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denny Hamlin | 16.0 | 1 | +15.0 |
| 2 | Erik Jones | 18.5 | 2 | +16.5 |
| 3 | Ty Dillon | 21.1 | 3 | +18.1 |
| 4 | William Byron | 13.9 | 4 | +9.9 |
| 5 | Chase Elliott | 10.4 | 5 | +5.4 |
| 7 | Tyler Reddick | 13.6 | 7 | +6.6 |
| 8 | John Hunter Nemechek | 20.5 | 8 | +12.5 |
| 9 | Brennan Poole | 25.2 | 9 | +16.2 |
| 10 | Ryan Preece | 21.1 | 10 | +11.1 |
| 11 | Justin Haley | 23.4 | 11 | +12.4 |
| 12 | Austin Dillon | 23.4 | 12 | +11.4 |
| 14 | Alex Bowman | 15.1 | 14 | +1.1 |
| 15 | Timmy Hill | 22.8 | 15 | +7.8 |
| 17 | Joey Gase | 23.7 | 17 | +6.7 |
| 18 | Brad Keselowski | 16.0 | 18 | -2.0 |
| 19 | Cody Ware | 27.9 | 19 | +8.9 |
| 22 | Chris Buescher | 13.6 | 22 | -8.4 |
| 23 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 20.1 | 23 | -2.9 |
| 24 | Bubba Wallace | 16.0 | 24 | -8.0 |
| 25 | Ryan Blaney | 13.9 | 25 | -11.1 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Denny Hamlin: has 44 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 17.9 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 22 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 14.3 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P5 on the day.
- Ty Dillon: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P21. Track history: 24 starts, 17.1 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2020 YellaWood 500?
Denny Hamlin won the 2020 YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Where was the 2020 YellaWood 500 held?
The 2020 YellaWood 500 was held at Talladega Superspeedway on October 4, 2020.