Daytona 500
Daytona International Speedway, February 14, 2021
Michael McDowell
Winner
200
Laps
40
Entries
13
Leaders
Michael McDowell won the 2021 Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway on February 14, 2021, leading 1 of 200 laps. Chase Elliott finished second; Austin Dillon rounded out the podium. The race featured 13 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, February 14, 2021
Season
2021
Winner
Leaders
13 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | +16 | Michael McDowell |
| 2 | 12 | +10 | Chase Elliott |
| 3 | 4 | +1 | Austin Dillon |
| 4 | 8 | +4 | Kevin Harvick |
| 5 | 25 | +20 | Denny Hamlin |
| 6 | 11 | +5 | Ryan Preece |
| 7 | 34 | +27 | Ross Chastain |
| 8 | 19 | +11 | Jamie McMurray |
| 9 | 16 | +7 | Corey LaJoie |
| 10 | 13 | +3 | Kyle Larson |
| 11 | 27 | +16 | Cole Custer |
| 12 | 9 | -3 | Joey Logano |
| 13 | 24 | +11 | Brad Keselowski |
| 14 | 10 | -4 | Kyle Busch |
| 15 | 39 | +24 | Austin Cindric |
| 16 | 5 | -11 | Christopher Bell |
| 17 | 6 | -11 | Bubba Wallace |
| 18 | 21 | +3 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 19 | 30 | +11 | Chase Briscoe |
| 20 | 28 | +8 | Joey Gase |
| 21 | 35 | +14 | Cody Ware |
| 22 | 20 | -2 | Kurt Busch |
| 23 | 38 | +15 | B.J. McLeod |
| 24 | 37 | +13 | Josh Bilicki |
| 25 | 26 | +1 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 26 | 2 | -24 | William Byron |
| 27 | 29 | +2 | Tyler Reddick |
| 28 | 40 | +12 | Kaz Grala |
| 29 | 33 | +4 | Quin Houff |
| 30 | 14 | -16 | Ryan Blaney |
| 31 | 22 | -9 | Chris Buescher |
| 32 | 36 | +4 | Anthony Alfredo |
| 33 | 23 | -10 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 34 | 3 | -31 | Aric Almirola |
| 35 | 1 | -34 | Alex Bowman |
| 36 | 15 | -21 | Daniel Suarez |
| 37 | 18 | -19 | David Ragan |
| 38 | 7 | -31 | Ryan Newman |
| 39 | 31 | -8 | Erik Jones |
| 40 | 32 | -8 | Derrike Cope |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | 1 | 1 | — | 20 |
| Austin Dillon | 3 | 5 | — | 14 |
| Bubba Wallace | 7 | 3 | — | 12 |
| Kyle Larson | 4 | 8 | — | 10 |
| Kevin Harvick | — | 2 | — | 9 |
| Ryan Preece | 2 | — | — | 9 |
| Joey Logano | 8 | 6 | — | 8 |
| Chase Elliott | — | 4 | — | 7 |
| Christopher Bell | 6 | — | — | 5 |
| Michael McDowell | — | 7 | — | 4 |
| Ross Chastain | 9 | — | — | 2 |
| Kyle Busch | — | 9 | — | 2 |
| Cole Custer | 10 | — | — | 1 |
| Brad Keselowski | — | 10 | — | 1 |
| Jamie McMurray | — | — | — | — |
| Corey LaJoie | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Cindric | 5 | — | — | — |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Chase Briscoe | — | — | — | — |
| Joey Gase | — | — | — | — |
| Cody Ware | — | — | — | — |
| Kurt Busch | — | — | — | — |
| B.J. McLeod | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Bilicki | — | — | — | — |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| William Byron | — | — | — | — |
| Tyler Reddick | — | — | — | — |
| Kaz Grala | — | — | — | — |
| Quin Houff | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Blaney | — | — | — | — |
| Chris Buescher | — | — | — | — |
| Anthony Alfredo | — | — | — | — |
| Matt DiBenedetto | — | — | — | — |
| Aric Almirola | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Bowman | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | — | — | — |
| David Ragan | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Newman | — | — | — | — |
| Erik Jones | — | — | — | — |
| Derrike Cope | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 29 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.8 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael McDowell | 19.2 | 1 | +18.2 |
| 2 | Chase Elliott | 13.6 | 2 | +11.6 |
| 3 | Austin Dillon | 21.1 | 3 | +18.1 |
| 5 | Denny Hamlin | 15.1 | 5 | +10.1 |
| 6 | Ryan Preece | 21.1 | 6 | +15.1 |
| 7 | Ross Chastain | 16.0 | 7 | +9.0 |
| 9 | Corey LaJoie | 23.3 | 9 | +14.3 |
| 10 | Kyle Larson | 20.1 | 10 | +10.1 |
| 11 | Cole Custer | 22.9 | 11 | +11.9 |
| 12 | Joey Logano | 18.5 | 12 | +6.5 |
| 13 | Brad Keselowski | 18.5 | 13 | +5.5 |
| 15 | Austin Cindric | 19.4 | 15 | +4.4 |
| 16 | Christopher Bell | 15.1 | 16 | -0.9 |
| 17 | Bubba Wallace | 16.9 | 17 | -0.1 |
| 18 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 18.5 | 18 | +0.5 |
| 19 | Chase Briscoe | 20.5 | 19 | +1.5 |
| 20 | Joey Gase | 23.7 | 20 | +3.7 |
| 21 | Cody Ware | 25.5 | 21 | +4.5 |
| 23 | B.J. McLeod | 25.5 | 23 | +2.5 |
| 24 | Josh Bilicki | 23.7 | 24 | -0.3 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Michael McDowell: has 36 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 20.2 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 26 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 16.5 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P30 on the day.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2021 Daytona 500?
Michael McDowell won the 2021 Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway driving for Front Row Motorsports.
Where was the 2021 Daytona 500 held?
The 2021 Daytona 500 was held at Daytona International Speedway on February 14, 2021.