Daytona 500
Daytona International Speedway — February 14, 2021
Michael McDowell
Winner
200
Laps
22
Entries
13
Leaders
Michael McDowell won the 2021 Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway on February 14, 2021, leading 1 of 200 laps. Chase Elliott finished second; Austin Dillon rounded out the podium. The race featured 13 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, February 14, 2021
Season
2021
Winner
Leaders
13 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | +16 | Michael McDowell |
| 2 | 12 | +10 | Chase Elliott |
| 3 | 4 | +1 | Austin Dillon |
| 4 | 8 | +4 | Kevin Harvick |
| 5 | 25 | +20 | Denny Hamlin |
| 6 | 11 | +5 | Ryan Preece |
| 7 | 34 | +27 | Ross Chastain |
| 8 | 19 | +11 | Jamie McMurray |
| 9 | 16 | +7 | Corey LaJoie |
| 10 | 13 | +3 | Kyle Larson |
| 11 | 27 | +16 | Cole Custer |
| 12 | 9 | -3 | Joey Logano |
| 13 | 24 | +11 | Brad Keselowski |
| 14 | 10 | -4 | Kyle Busch |
| 15 | 39 | +24 | Austin Cindric |
| 16 | 5 | -11 | Christopher Bell |
| 17 | 6 | -11 | Bubba Wallace |
| 18 | 21 | +3 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 19 | 30 | +11 | Chase Briscoe |
| 20 | 28 | +8 | Joey Gase |
| 28 | 40 | +12 | Kaz Grala |
| 35 | 1 | -34 | Alex Bowman |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | 1 | 1 | — | 20 |
| Austin Dillon | 3 | 5 | — | 14 |
| Bubba Wallace | 7 | 3 | — | 12 |
| Kyle Larson | 4 | 8 | — | 10 |
| Kevin Harvick | 17 | 2 | — | 9 |
| Ryan Preece | 2 | 11 | — | 9 |
| Joey Logano | 8 | 6 | — | 8 |
| Chase Elliott | 14 | 4 | — | 7 |
| Christopher Bell | 6 | 18 | — | 5 |
| Michael McDowell | 15 | 7 | — | 4 |
| Ross Chastain | 9 | 13 | — | 2 |
| Kyle Busch | 12 | 9 | — | 2 |
| Cole Custer | 10 | 14 | — | 1 |
| Brad Keselowski | 11 | 10 | — | 1 |
| Austin Cindric | 5 | 12 | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 19 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.8 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael McDowell | 20.0 | 1 | +19.0 |
| 2 | Chase Elliott | 10.4 | 2 | +8.4 |
| 3 | Austin Dillon | 23.4 | 3 | +20.4 |
| 5 | Denny Hamlin | 16.0 | 5 | +11.0 |
| 6 | Ryan Preece | 21.1 | 6 | +15.1 |
| 7 | Ross Chastain | 17.4 | 7 | +10.4 |
| 9 | Corey LaJoie | 23.3 | 9 | +14.3 |
| 10 | Kyle Larson | 18.5 | 10 | +8.5 |
| 11 | Cole Custer | 23.4 | 11 | +12.4 |
| 12 | Joey Logano | 20.5 | 12 | +8.5 |
| 13 | Brad Keselowski | 16.0 | 13 | +3.0 |
| 14 | Kyle Busch | 15.1 | 14 | +1.1 |
| 15 | Austin Cindric | 20.1 | 15 | +5.1 |
| 16 | Christopher Bell | 17.4 | 16 | +1.4 |
| 17 | Bubba Wallace | 16.0 | 17 | -1.0 |
| 18 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 18.5 | 18 | +0.5 |
| 19 | Chase Briscoe | 21.7 | 19 | +2.7 |
| 20 | Joey Gase | 23.7 | 20 | +3.7 |
| 35 | Alex Bowman | 15.1 | 35 | -19.9 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Michael McDowell: has 38 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 20.1 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 30 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 15.9 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P2 on the day.
- Austin Dillon: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P23. Track history: 36 starts, 14.7 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2021 Daytona 500?
Michael McDowell won the 2021 Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway driving for Front Row Motorsports.
Where was the 2021 Daytona 500 held?
The 2021 Daytona 500 was held at Daytona International Speedway on February 14, 2021.