Dixie Vodka 400
Homestead-Miami Speedway — February 28, 2021
William Byron
Winner
267
Laps
22
Entries
9
Leaders
William Byron won the 2021 Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway on February 28, 2021, leading 102 of 267 laps. Tyler Reddick finished second; Martin Truex, Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, February 28, 2021
Track
Season
2021
Winner
Leaders
9 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | +1 | William Byron |
| 2 | 11 | +9 | Tyler Reddick |
| 3 | 15 | +12 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 4 | 32 | +28 | Kyle Larson |
| 5 | 4 | -1 | Kevin Harvick |
| 6 | 3 | -3 | Michael McDowell |
| 7 | 14 | +7 | Ryan Newman |
| 8 | 28 | +20 | Kurt Busch |
| 9 | 25 | +16 | Alex Bowman |
| 10 | 9 | -1 | Kyle Busch |
| 11 | 20 | +9 | Denny Hamlin |
| 12 | 6 | -6 | Austin Dillon |
| 13 | 23 | +10 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 14 | 17 | +3 | Chase Elliott |
| 15 | 21 | +6 | Daniel Suarez |
| 16 | 1 | -15 | Brad Keselowski |
| 17 | 24 | +7 | Ross Chastain |
| 18 | 19 | +1 | Chase Briscoe |
| 19 | 16 | -3 | Chris Buescher |
| 20 | 8 | -12 | Christopher Bell |
| 22 | 13 | -9 | Bubba Wallace |
| 25 | 29 | +4 | Joey Logano |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | 2 | 1 | — | 19 |
| Kyle Busch | 1 | 2 | — | 19 |
| Brad Keselowski | 4 | 4 | — | 14 |
| Tyler Reddick | 3 | 8 | — | 11 |
| Chase Elliott | 6 | 5 | — | 11 |
| Denny Hamlin | 9 | 3 | — | 10 |
| William Byron | 5 | 11 | — | 6 |
| Kevin Harvick | 7 | 10 | — | 5 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 12 | 7 | — | 4 |
| Christopher Bell | 10 | 9 | — | 3 |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 19 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.0 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Byron | 10.7 | 1 | +9.7 |
| 2 | Tyler Reddick | 6.2 | 2 | +4.2 |
| 3 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 3 | +12.4 |
| 4 | Kyle Larson | 12.7 | 4 | +8.7 |
| 6 | Michael McDowell | 17.0 | 6 | +11.0 |
| 9 | Alex Bowman | 13.5 | 9 | +4.5 |
| 10 | Kyle Busch | 17.0 | 10 | +7.0 |
| 11 | Denny Hamlin | 8.2 | 11 | -2.8 |
| 12 | Austin Dillon | 17.1 | 12 | +5.1 |
| 13 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19.9 | 13 | +6.9 |
| 14 | Chase Elliott | 7.8 | 14 | -6.2 |
| 15 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 15 | -1.0 |
| 16 | Brad Keselowski | 11.2 | 16 | -4.8 |
| 17 | Ross Chastain | 13.3 | 17 | -3.7 |
| 18 | Chase Briscoe | 11.9 | 18 | -6.1 |
| 19 | Chris Buescher | 9.2 | 19 | -9.8 |
| 20 | Christopher Bell | 10.7 | 20 | -9.3 |
| 22 | Bubba Wallace | 12.7 | 22 | -9.3 |
| 25 | Joey Logano | 14.7 | 25 | -10.3 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- William Byron: has 8 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 6.0 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Tyler Reddick: was the model’s top pick based on 12 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 6.3 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P2 on the day.
- Martin Truex, Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P15. Track history: 19 starts, 10.7 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2021 Dixie Vodka 400?
William Byron won the 2021 Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway driving for Hendrick Motorsports.
Where was the 2021 Dixie Vodka 400 held?
The 2021 Dixie Vodka 400 was held at Homestead-Miami Speedway on February 28, 2021.