Foxwoods Resort Casino 301
New Hampshire Motor Speedway, July 18, 2021
Aric Almirola
Winner
293
Laps
37
Entries
10
Leaders
Aric Almirola won the 2021 Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway on July 18, 2021, leading 25 of 293 laps. Christopher Bell finished second; Brad Keselowski rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, July 18, 2021
Season
2021
Winner
Leaders
10 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | +21 | Aric Almirola |
| 2 | 9 | +7 | Christopher Bell |
| 3 | 11 | +8 | Brad Keselowski |
| 4 | 15 | +11 | Joey Logano |
| 5 | 7 | +2 | Ryan Blaney |
| 6 | 12 | +6 | Kevin Harvick |
| 7 | 10 | +3 | Kyle Larson |
| 8 | 20 | +12 | Ross Chastain |
| 9 | 5 | -4 | Alex Bowman |
| 10 | 6 | -4 | Denny Hamlin |
| 11 | 14 | +3 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 12 | 2 | -10 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 13 | 8 | -5 | Tyler Reddick |
| 14 | 21 | +7 | Cole Custer |
| 15 | 29 | +14 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 16 | 4 | -12 | Kurt Busch |
| 17 | 13 | -4 | Austin Dillon |
| 18 | 3 | -15 | Chase Elliott |
| 19 | 24 | +5 | Erik Jones |
| 20 | 31 | +11 | Daniel Suarez |
| 21 | 16 | -5 | William Byron |
| 22 | 25 | +3 | Ryan Preece |
| 23 | 26 | +3 | Corey LaJoie |
| 24 | 28 | +4 | Ryan Newman |
| 25 | 23 | -2 | Michael McDowell |
| 26 | 18 | -8 | Bubba Wallace |
| 27 | 19 | -8 | Chase Briscoe |
| 28 | 30 | +2 | Justin Haley |
| 29 | 17 | -12 | Chris Buescher |
| 30 | 32 | +2 | B.J. McLeod |
| 31 | 34 | +3 | Cody Ware |
| 32 | 27 | -5 | Anthony Alfredo |
| 33 | 33 | — | Garrett Smithley |
| 34 | 35 | +1 | Josh Bilicki |
| 35 | 36 | +1 | Quin Houff |
| 36 | 37 | +1 | James Davison |
| 37 | 1 | -36 | Kyle Busch |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Keselowski | 2 | 1 | — | 19 |
| Ryan Blaney | 1 | 3 | — | 18 |
| Kevin Harvick | 4 | 2 | — | 16 |
| Chase Elliott | 3 | 6 | — | 13 |
| Denny Hamlin | 7 | 4 | — | 11 |
| Tyler Reddick | 5 | 8 | — | 9 |
| Aric Almirola | — | 5 | — | 6 |
| Christopher Bell | 6 | — | — | 5 |
| Kyle Larson | 10 | 7 | — | 5 |
| Ross Chastain | 8 | 9 | — | 5 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 9 | — | — | 2 |
| Kurt Busch | — | 10 | — | 1 |
| Joey Logano | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Bowman | — | — | — | — |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Cole Custer | — | — | — | — |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Erik Jones | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | — | — | — |
| William Byron | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Preece | — | — | — | — |
| Corey LaJoie | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Newman | — | — | — | — |
| Michael McDowell | — | — | — | — |
| Bubba Wallace | — | — | — | — |
| Chase Briscoe | — | — | — | — |
| Justin Haley | — | — | — | — |
| Chris Buescher | — | — | — | — |
| B.J. McLeod | — | — | — | — |
| Cody Ware | — | — | — | — |
| Anthony Alfredo | — | — | — | — |
| Garrett Smithley | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Bilicki | — | — | — | — |
| Quin Houff | — | — | — | — |
| James Davison | — | — | — | — |
| Kyle Busch | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 28 matched drivers, the model averaged 6.8 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Good
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Christopher Bell | 8.3 | 2 | +6.3 |
| 3 | Brad Keselowski | 13.8 | 3 | +10.8 |
| 4 | Joey Logano | 10.3 | 4 | +6.3 |
| 5 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 5 | +1.8 |
| 7 | Kyle Larson | 10.3 | 7 | +3.3 |
| 8 | Ross Chastain | 12.6 | 8 | +4.6 |
| 9 | Alex Bowman | 15.6 | 9 | +6.6 |
| 10 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 10 | -3.2 |
| 12 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 14.0 | 12 | +2.0 |
| 13 | Tyler Reddick | 12.0 | 13 | -1.0 |
| 14 | Cole Custer | 22.1 | 14 | +8.1 |
| 15 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.4 | 15 | +5.4 |
| 17 | Austin Dillon | 17.7 | 17 | +0.7 |
| 18 | Chase Elliott | 9.9 | 18 | -8.1 |
| 19 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 19 | -1.3 |
| 20 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 20 | -6.0 |
| 21 | William Byron | 10.8 | 21 | -10.2 |
| 22 | Ryan Preece | 12.6 | 22 | -9.4 |
| 23 | Corey LaJoie | 24.9 | 23 | +1.9 |
| 25 | Michael McDowell | 15.6 | 25 | -9.4 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Aric Almirola: has 26 career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a 19.4 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 14 career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a 13.3 avg finish (1 win), finishing P5 on the day.
- Brad Keselowski: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P14. Track history: 34 starts, 9.6 avg finish.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2021 Foxwoods Resort Casino 301?
Aric Almirola won the 2021 Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway driving for McAnally-Hilgemann Racing.
Where was the 2021 Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 held?
The 2021 Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 was held at New Hampshire Motor Speedway on July 18, 2021.