Dixie Vodka 400
Homestead-Miami Speedway, February 28, 2021
William Byron
Winner
267
Laps
38
Entries
9
Leaders
William Byron won the 2021 Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway on February 28, 2021, leading 102 of 267 laps. Tyler Reddick finished second; Martin Truex, Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, February 28, 2021
Track
Season
2021
Winner
Leaders
9 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31 | +30 | William Byron |
| 2 | 35 | +33 | Tyler Reddick |
| 3 | 9 | +6 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 4 | 17 | +13 | Kyle Larson |
| 5 | 4 | -1 | Kevin Harvick |
| 6 | 6 | — | Michael McDowell |
| 7 | 23 | +16 | Ryan Newman |
| 8 | 5 | -3 | Kurt Busch |
| 9 | 13 | +4 | Alex Bowman |
| 10 | 24 | +14 | Kyle Busch |
| 11 | 1 | -10 | Denny Hamlin |
| 12 | 22 | +10 | Austin Dillon |
| 13 | 15 | +2 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 14 | 11 | -3 | Chase Elliott |
| 15 | 21 | +6 | Daniel Suarez |
| 16 | 7 | -9 | Brad Keselowski |
| 17 | 32 | +15 | Ross Chastain |
| 18 | 30 | +12 | Chase Briscoe |
| 19 | 12 | -7 | Chris Buescher |
| 20 | 3 | -17 | Christopher Bell |
| 21 | 8 | -13 | Ryan Preece |
| 22 | 19 | -3 | Bubba Wallace |
| 23 | 10 | -13 | Cole Custer |
| 24 | 27 | +3 | Anthony Alfredo |
| 25 | 2 | -23 | Joey Logano |
| 26 | 20 | -6 | Justin Haley |
| 27 | 18 | -9 | Erik Jones |
| 28 | 37 | +9 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 29 | 14 | -15 | Ryan Blaney |
| 30 | 16 | -14 | Aric Almirola |
| 31 | 28 | -3 | Garrett Smithley |
| 32 | 26 | -6 | Cody Ware |
| 33 | 36 | +3 | Josh Bilicki |
| 34 | 34 | — | B.J. McLeod |
| 35 | 38 | +3 | Quin Houff |
| 36 | 25 | -11 | Corey LaJoie |
| 37 | 29 | -8 | James Davison |
| 38 | 33 | -5 | Timmy Hill |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Byron | 4 | 1 | — | 17 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 3 | 4 | — | 15 |
| Chris Buescher | 1 | 6 | — | 15 |
| Kyle Larson | 6 | 5 | — | 11 |
| Kurt Busch | 9 | 3 | — | 10 |
| Brad Keselowski | 2 | 10 | — | 10 |
| Denny Hamlin | — | 2 | — | 9 |
| Alex Bowman | 5 | 9 | — | 8 |
| Kevin Harvick | — | 7 | — | 4 |
| Joey Logano | 7 | — | — | 4 |
| Chase Elliott | 8 | — | — | 3 |
| Ryan Blaney | — | 8 | — | 3 |
| Austin Dillon | 10 | — | — | 1 |
| Tyler Reddick | — | — | — | — |
| Michael McDowell | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Newman | — | — | — | — |
| Kyle Busch | — | — | — | — |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | — | — | — |
| Ross Chastain | — | — | — | — |
| Chase Briscoe | — | — | — | — |
| Christopher Bell | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Preece | — | — | — | — |
| Bubba Wallace | — | — | — | — |
| Cole Custer | — | — | — | — |
| Anthony Alfredo | — | — | — | — |
| Justin Haley | — | — | — | — |
| Erik Jones | — | — | — | — |
| Matt DiBenedetto | — | — | — | — |
| Aric Almirola | — | — | — | — |
| Garrett Smithley | — | — | — | — |
| Cody Ware | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Bilicki | — | — | — | — |
| B.J. McLeod | — | — | — | — |
| Quin Houff | — | — | — | — |
| Corey LaJoie | — | — | — | — |
| James Davison | — | — | — | — |
| Timmy Hill | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 29 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.9 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Byron | 10.7 | 1 | +9.7 |
| 2 | Tyler Reddick | 11.2 | 2 | +9.2 |
| 3 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 3 | +12.4 |
| 4 | Kyle Larson | 13.1 | 4 | +9.1 |
| 6 | Michael McDowell | 16.9 | 6 | +10.9 |
| 9 | Alex Bowman | 16.2 | 9 | +7.2 |
| 11 | Denny Hamlin | 6.2 | 11 | -4.8 |
| 12 | Austin Dillon | 19.9 | 12 | +7.9 |
| 13 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19.9 | 13 | +6.9 |
| 14 | Chase Elliott | 10.1 | 14 | -3.9 |
| 15 | Daniel Suarez | 12.7 | 15 | -2.3 |
| 16 | Brad Keselowski | 15.4 | 16 | -0.6 |
| 17 | Ross Chastain | 14.5 | 17 | -2.5 |
| 18 | Chase Briscoe | 7.8 | 18 | -10.2 |
| 19 | Chris Buescher | 9.2 | 19 | -9.8 |
| 20 | Christopher Bell | 9.2 | 20 | -10.8 |
| 21 | Ryan Preece | 13.3 | 21 | -7.7 |
| 22 | Bubba Wallace | 12.7 | 22 | -9.3 |
| 23 | Cole Custer | 22.0 | 23 | -1.0 |
| 24 | Anthony Alfredo | 21.4 | 24 | -2.6 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- William Byron: has 10 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 11.1 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 27 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 10.5 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P11 on the day.
- Cody Ware: was the biggest surprise, finishing P32 vs predicted P57. Track history: 3 starts, 33.3 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2021 Dixie Vodka 400?
William Byron won the 2021 Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway driving for Hendrick Motorsports.
Where was the 2021 Dixie Vodka 400 held?
The 2021 Dixie Vodka 400 was held at Homestead-Miami Speedway on February 28, 2021.