Dixie Vodka 400

Homestead-Miami Speedway, February 28, 2021

William Byron
Winner
267
Laps
38
Entries
9
Leaders

William Byron won the 2021 Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway on February 28, 2021, leading 102 of 267 laps. Tyler Reddick finished second; Martin Truex, Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Sunday, February 28, 2021
Season
2021
Winner
Leaders
9 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 31 +30 William Byron
2 35 +33 Tyler Reddick
3 9 +6 Martin Truex, Jr.
4 17 +13 Kyle Larson
5 4 -1 Kevin Harvick
6 6 Michael McDowell
7 23 +16 Ryan Newman
8 5 -3 Kurt Busch
9 13 +4 Alex Bowman
10 24 +14 Kyle Busch
11 1 -10 Denny Hamlin
12 22 +10 Austin Dillon
13 15 +2 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
14 11 -3 Chase Elliott
15 21 +6 Daniel Suarez
16 7 -9 Brad Keselowski
17 32 +15 Ross Chastain
18 30 +12 Chase Briscoe
19 12 -7 Chris Buescher
20 3 -17 Christopher Bell
21 8 -13 Ryan Preece
22 19 -3 Bubba Wallace
23 10 -13 Cole Custer
24 27 +3 Anthony Alfredo
25 2 -23 Joey Logano
26 20 -6 Justin Haley
27 18 -9 Erik Jones
28 37 +9 Matt DiBenedetto
29 14 -15 Ryan Blaney
30 16 -14 Aric Almirola
31 28 -3 Garrett Smithley
32 26 -6 Cody Ware
33 36 +3 Josh Bilicki
34 34 B.J. McLeod
35 38 +3 Quin Houff
36 25 -11 Corey LaJoie
37 29 -8 James Davison
38 33 -5 Timmy Hill
Stage Results
Driver Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage Pts
William Byron 4 1 17
Martin Truex, Jr. 3 4 15
Chris Buescher 1 6 15
Kyle Larson 6 5 11
Kurt Busch 9 3 10
Brad Keselowski 2 10 10
Denny Hamlin 2 9
Alex Bowman 5 9 8
Kevin Harvick 7 4
Joey Logano 7 4
Chase Elliott 8 3
Ryan Blaney 8 3
Austin Dillon 10 1
Tyler Reddick
Michael McDowell
Ryan Newman
Kyle Busch
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Daniel Suarez
Ross Chastain
Chase Briscoe
Christopher Bell
Ryan Preece
Bubba Wallace
Cole Custer
Anthony Alfredo
Justin Haley
Erik Jones
Matt DiBenedetto
Aric Almirola
Garrett Smithley
Cody Ware
Josh Bilicki
B.J. McLeod
Quin Houff
Corey LaJoie
James Davison
Timmy Hill
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 29 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.9 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 William Byron 10.7 1 +9.7
2 Tyler Reddick 11.2 2 +9.2
3 Martin Truex, Jr. 15.4 3 +12.4
4 Kyle Larson 13.1 4 +9.1
6 Michael McDowell 16.9 6 +10.9
9 Alex Bowman 16.2 9 +7.2
11 Denny Hamlin 6.2 11 -4.8
12 Austin Dillon 19.9 12 +7.9
13 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 19.9 13 +6.9
14 Chase Elliott 10.1 14 -3.9
15 Daniel Suarez 12.7 15 -2.3
16 Brad Keselowski 15.4 16 -0.6
17 Ross Chastain 14.5 17 -2.5
18 Chase Briscoe 7.8 18 -10.2
19 Chris Buescher 9.2 19 -9.8
20 Christopher Bell 9.2 20 -10.8
21 Ryan Preece 13.3 21 -7.7
22 Bubba Wallace 12.7 22 -9.3
23 Cole Custer 22.0 23 -1.0
24 Anthony Alfredo 21.4 24 -2.6

(showing top 20 finishers)

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • William Byron: has 10 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 11.1 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 27 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 10.5 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P11 on the day.
  • Cody Ware: was the biggest surprise, finishing P32 vs predicted P57. Track history: 3 starts, 33.3 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2021 Dixie Vodka 400?
William Byron won the 2021 Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway driving for Hendrick Motorsports.
Where was the 2021 Dixie Vodka 400 held?
The 2021 Dixie Vodka 400 was held at Homestead-Miami Speedway on February 28, 2021.