Hollywood Casino 400
Kansas Speedway, October 24, 2021
Kyle Larson
Winner
267
Laps
40
Entries
8
Leaders
Kyle Larson won the 2021 Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway on October 24, 2021, leading 130 of 267 laps. Chase Elliott finished second; Kevin Harvick rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, October 24, 2021
Track
Season
2021
Winner
Leaders
8 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | — | Kyle Larson |
| 2 | 5 | +3 | Chase Elliott |
| 3 | 11 | +8 | Kevin Harvick |
| 4 | 13 | +9 | Kurt Busch |
| 5 | 6 | +1 | Denny Hamlin |
| 6 | 9 | +3 | William Byron |
| 7 | 7 | — | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 8 | 10 | +2 | Christopher Bell |
| 9 | 8 | -1 | Joey Logano |
| 10 | 14 | +4 | Austin Dillon |
| 11 | 25 | +14 | Alex Bowman |
| 12 | 21 | +9 | Chris Buescher |
| 13 | 24 | +11 | Ross Chastain |
| 14 | 27 | +13 | Bubba Wallace |
| 15 | 16 | +1 | Daniel Suarez |
| 16 | 18 | +2 | Michael McDowell |
| 17 | 3 | -14 | Brad Keselowski |
| 18 | 22 | +4 | Cole Custer |
| 19 | 19 | — | Chase Briscoe |
| 20 | 40 | +20 | Parker Kligerman |
| 21 | 32 | +11 | Ryan Preece |
| 22 | 12 | -10 | Tyler Reddick |
| 23 | 15 | -8 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 24 | 28 | +4 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 25 | 23 | -2 | Corey LaJoie |
| 26 | 20 | -6 | Aric Almirola |
| 27 | 31 | +4 | Ryan Newman |
| 28 | 4 | -24 | Kyle Busch |
| 29 | 17 | -12 | Erik Jones |
| 30 | 26 | -4 | B.J. McLeod |
| 31 | 36 | +5 | Cody Ware |
| 32 | 39 | +7 | Joey Gase |
| 33 | 30 | -3 | Josh Bilicki |
| 34 | 38 | +4 | David Starr |
| 35 | 35 | — | Quin Houff |
| 36 | 34 | -2 | Ryan Ellis |
| 37 | 2 | -35 | Ryan Blaney |
| 38 | 29 | -9 | Anthony Alfredo |
| 39 | 33 | -6 | Justin Haley |
| 40 | 37 | -3 | Chad Finchum |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Byron | 2 | 1 | — | 19 |
| Kyle Larson | 1 | 3 | — | 18 |
| Chase Elliott | 3 | 2 | — | 17 |
| Kurt Busch | 4 | 4 | — | 14 |
| Kevin Harvick | 6 | 5 | — | 11 |
| Denny Hamlin | 5 | 8 | — | 9 |
| Alex Bowman | 7 | 7 | — | 8 |
| Tyler Reddick | 10 | 6 | — | 6 |
| Ross Chastain | 8 | 10 | — | 4 |
| Bubba Wallace | — | 9 | — | 2 |
| Kyle Busch | 9 | — | — | 2 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Christopher Bell | — | — | — | — |
| Joey Logano | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Chris Buescher | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | — | — | — |
| Michael McDowell | — | — | — | — |
| Brad Keselowski | — | — | — | — |
| Cole Custer | — | — | — | — |
| Chase Briscoe | — | — | — | — |
| Parker Kligerman | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Preece | — | — | — | — |
| Matt DiBenedetto | — | — | — | — |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Corey LaJoie | — | — | — | — |
| Aric Almirola | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Newman | — | — | — | — |
| Erik Jones | — | — | — | — |
| B.J. McLeod | — | — | — | — |
| Cody Ware | — | — | — | — |
| Joey Gase | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Bilicki | — | — | — | — |
| David Starr | — | — | — | — |
| Quin Houff | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Ellis | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Blaney | — | — | — | — |
| Anthony Alfredo | — | — | — | — |
| Justin Haley | — | — | — | — |
| Chad Finchum | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 31 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.2 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Larson | 13.1 | 1 | +12.1 |
| 2 | Chase Elliott | 10.1 | 2 | +8.1 |
| 5 | Denny Hamlin | 6.2 | 5 | +1.2 |
| 6 | William Byron | 10.7 | 6 | +4.7 |
| 7 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 7 | +8.4 |
| 8 | Christopher Bell | 9.2 | 8 | +1.2 |
| 9 | Joey Logano | 11.9 | 9 | +2.9 |
| 10 | Austin Dillon | 19.9 | 10 | +9.9 |
| 11 | Alex Bowman | 16.2 | 11 | +5.2 |
| 12 | Chris Buescher | 9.2 | 12 | -2.8 |
| 13 | Ross Chastain | 14.5 | 13 | +1.5 |
| 14 | Bubba Wallace | 12.7 | 14 | -1.3 |
| 15 | Daniel Suarez | 12.7 | 15 | -2.3 |
| 16 | Michael McDowell | 16.9 | 16 | +0.9 |
| 17 | Brad Keselowski | 15.4 | 17 | -1.6 |
| 18 | Cole Custer | 22.0 | 18 | +4.0 |
| 19 | Chase Briscoe | 7.8 | 19 | -11.2 |
| 21 | Ryan Preece | 13.3 | 21 | -7.7 |
| 22 | Tyler Reddick | 11.2 | 22 | -10.8 |
| 24 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19.9 | 24 | -4.1 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kyle Larson: has 26 career starts at Kansas Speedway with a 12.8 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 40 career starts at Kansas Speedway with a 12.4 avg finish (5 wins), finishing P5 on the day.
- Cody Ware: was the biggest surprise, finishing P31 vs predicted P57. Track history: 9 starts, 32.7 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2021 Hollywood Casino 400?
Kyle Larson won the 2021 Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway driving for Hendrick Motorsports.
Where was the 2021 Hollywood Casino 400 held?
The 2021 Hollywood Casino 400 was held at Kansas Speedway on October 24, 2021.