NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race
Phoenix Raceway, November 7, 2021
Kyle Larson
Winner
312
Laps
39
Entries
7
Leaders
Kyle Larson won the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race at Phoenix Raceway on November 7, 2021, leading 107 of 312 laps. Martin Truex, Jr. finished second; Denny Hamlin rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, November 7, 2021
Track
Season
2021
Winner
Leaders
7 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | — | Kyle Larson |
| 2 | 12 | +10 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 3 | 6 | +3 | Denny Hamlin |
| 4 | 4 | — | Ryan Blaney |
| 5 | 2 | -3 | Chase Elliott |
| 6 | 18 | +12 | Aric Almirola |
| 7 | 13 | +6 | Kyle Busch |
| 8 | 9 | +1 | Kevin Harvick |
| 9 | 8 | -1 | Christopher Bell |
| 10 | 11 | +1 | Brad Keselowski |
| 11 | 10 | -1 | Joey Logano |
| 12 | 15 | +3 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 13 | 7 | -6 | Cole Custer |
| 14 | 16 | +2 | Ross Chastain |
| 15 | 23 | +8 | Austin Dillon |
| 16 | 5 | -11 | Kurt Busch |
| 17 | 3 | -14 | William Byron |
| 18 | 14 | -4 | Alex Bowman |
| 19 | 20 | +1 | Tyler Reddick |
| 20 | 31 | +11 | Ryan Preece |
| 21 | 17 | -4 | Daniel Suarez |
| 22 | 27 | +5 | Erik Jones |
| 23 | 19 | -4 | Ryan Newman |
| 24 | 28 | +4 | Michael McDowell |
| 25 | 26 | +1 | Chris Buescher |
| 26 | 29 | +3 | Justin Haley |
| 27 | 32 | +5 | B.J. McLeod |
| 28 | 33 | +5 | Cody Ware |
| 29 | 34 | +5 | Joey Gase |
| 30 | 37 | +7 | Josh Bilicki |
| 31 | 38 | +7 | Garrett Smithley |
| 32 | 24 | -8 | Corey LaJoie |
| 33 | 36 | +3 | David Starr |
| 34 | 30 | -4 | Anthony Alfredo |
| 35 | 22 | -13 | Chase Briscoe |
| 36 | 21 | -15 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 37 | 35 | -2 | Quin Houff |
| 38 | 39 | +1 | Timmy Hill |
| 39 | 25 | -14 | Bubba Wallace |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Harvick | 2 | 6 | — | 14 |
| Ryan Blaney | 8 | 5 | — | 9 |
| William Byron | 6 | 10 | — | 6 |
| Brad Keselowski | — | 7 | — | 4 |
| Cole Custer | 7 | — | — | 4 |
| Kyle Busch | — | 8 | — | 3 |
| Joey Logano | — | 9 | — | 2 |
| Kurt Busch | 9 | — | — | 2 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 10 | — | — | 1 |
| Kyle Larson | 5 | 1 | — | — |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 1 | 4 | — | — |
| Denny Hamlin | 4 | 3 | — | — |
| Chase Elliott | 3 | 2 | — | — |
| Aric Almirola | — | — | — | — |
| Christopher Bell | — | — | — | — |
| Ross Chastain | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Bowman | — | — | — | — |
| Tyler Reddick | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Preece | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | — | — | — |
| Erik Jones | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Newman | — | — | — | — |
| Michael McDowell | — | — | — | — |
| Chris Buescher | — | — | — | — |
| Justin Haley | — | — | — | — |
| B.J. McLeod | — | — | — | — |
| Cody Ware | — | — | — | — |
| Joey Gase | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Bilicki | — | — | — | — |
| Garrett Smithley | — | — | — | — |
| Corey LaJoie | — | — | — | — |
| David Starr | — | — | — | — |
| Anthony Alfredo | — | — | — | — |
| Chase Briscoe | — | — | — | — |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Quin Houff | — | — | — | — |
| Timmy Hill | — | — | — | — |
| Bubba Wallace | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 31 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.0 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Larson | 10.3 | 1 | +9.3 |
| 2 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 14.0 | 2 | +12.0 |
| 3 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 3 | +3.8 |
| 4 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 4 | +2.8 |
| 5 | Chase Elliott | 9.9 | 5 | +4.9 |
| 9 | Christopher Bell | 8.3 | 9 | -0.7 |
| 10 | Brad Keselowski | 13.8 | 10 | +3.8 |
| 11 | Joey Logano | 10.3 | 11 | -0.7 |
| 13 | Cole Custer | 22.1 | 13 | +9.1 |
| 14 | Ross Chastain | 12.6 | 14 | -1.4 |
| 15 | Austin Dillon | 17.7 | 15 | +2.7 |
| 17 | William Byron | 10.8 | 17 | -6.2 |
| 18 | Alex Bowman | 15.6 | 18 | -2.4 |
| 19 | Tyler Reddick | 12.0 | 19 | -7.0 |
| 20 | Ryan Preece | 12.6 | 20 | -7.4 |
| 21 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 21 | -7.0 |
| 22 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 22 | -4.3 |
| 24 | Michael McDowell | 15.6 | 24 | -8.4 |
| 25 | Chris Buescher | 12.0 | 25 | -13.0 |
| 26 | Justin Haley | 21.2 | 26 | -4.8 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kyle Larson: has 19 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 8.6 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 28 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 10.6 avg finish (1 win), finishing P3 on the day.
- Martin Truex, Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P14. Track history: 16 starts, 11.4 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race?
Kyle Larson won the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race at Phoenix Raceway driving for Hendrick Motorsports.
Where was the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race held?
The 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race was held at Phoenix Raceway on November 7, 2021.