Toyota/Save Mart 350
Sonoma Raceway — June 6, 2021
Kyle Larson
Winner
92
Laps
21
Entries
7
Leaders
Kyle Larson won the 2021 Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway on June 6, 2021, leading 57 of 92 laps. Chase Elliott finished second; Martin Truex, Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.
Race Details
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | +3 | Kyle Larson |
| 2 | 11 | +9 | Chase Elliott |
| 3 | 9 | +6 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 4 | 2 | -2 | Joey Logano |
| 5 | 20 | +15 | Kyle Busch |
| 6 | 17 | +11 | Kurt Busch |
| 7 | 12 | +5 | Ross Chastain |
| 8 | 6 | -2 | Denny Hamlin |
| 9 | 10 | +1 | Alex Bowman |
| 10 | 3 | -7 | Ryan Blaney |
| 11 | 22 | +11 | Erik Jones |
| 12 | 21 | +9 | Daniel Suarez |
| 13 | 16 | +3 | Austin Dillon |
| 14 | 26 | +12 | Bubba Wallace |
| 15 | 1 | -14 | Brad Keselowski |
| 16 | 24 | +8 | Chris Buescher |
| 17 | 27 | +10 | Chase Briscoe |
| 18 | 29 | +11 | Corey LaJoie |
| 19 | 13 | -6 | Tyler Reddick |
| 20 | 19 | -1 | Cole Custer |
| 35 | 15 | -20 | William Byron |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | 2 | 4 | — | 16 |
| Joey Logano | 1 | 9 | — | 12 |
| Denny Hamlin | 3 | 8 | — | 11 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 24 | 1 | — | 10 |
| Tyler Reddick | 4 | 17 | — | 7 |
| Kyle Busch | 6 | 10 | — | 6 |
| Chase Briscoe | 25 | 5 | — | 6 |
| William Byron | 5 | 11 | — | 6 |
| Ross Chastain | 30 | 6 | — | 5 |
| Alex Bowman | 7 | 18 | — | 4 |
| Chase Elliott | 8 | 33 | — | 3 |
| Austin Dillon | 9 | 15 | — | 2 |
| Erik Jones | 10 | 24 | — | 1 |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 20 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.5 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Larson | 12.9 | 1 | +11.9 |
| 2 | Chase Elliott | 7.2 | 2 | +5.2 |
| 3 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 16.5 | 3 | +13.5 |
| 4 | Joey Logano | 12.7 | 4 | +8.7 |
| 5 | Kyle Busch | 13.0 | 5 | +8.0 |
| 7 | Ross Chastain | 16.2 | 7 | +9.2 |
| 8 | Denny Hamlin | 16.7 | 8 | +8.7 |
| 9 | Alex Bowman | 16.7 | 9 | +7.7 |
| 10 | Ryan Blaney | 12.7 | 10 | +2.7 |
| 11 | Erik Jones | 21.4 | 11 | +10.4 |
| 12 | Daniel Suarez | 16.8 | 12 | +4.8 |
| 13 | Austin Dillon | 21.4 | 13 | +8.4 |
| 14 | Bubba Wallace | 16.7 | 14 | +2.7 |
| 15 | Brad Keselowski | 16.7 | 15 | +1.7 |
| 16 | Chris Buescher | 10.2 | 16 | -5.8 |
| 17 | Chase Briscoe | 16.7 | 17 | -0.3 |
| 18 | Corey LaJoie | 21.4 | 18 | +3.4 |
| 19 | Tyler Reddick | 11.2 | 19 | -7.8 |
| 20 | Cole Custer | 25.7 | 20 | +5.7 |
| 35 | William Byron | 11.5 | 35 | -23.5 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kyle Larson: has 9 career starts at Sonoma Raceway with a 12.6 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 8 career starts at Sonoma Raceway with a 8.9 avg finish, finishing P2 on the day.
- Martin Truex, Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P17. Track history: 7 starts, 15.3 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2021 Toyota/Save Mart 350?
Kyle Larson won the 2021 Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway driving for Hendrick Motorsports.
Where was the 2021 Toyota/Save Mart 350 held?
The 2021 Toyota/Save Mart 350 was held at Sonoma Raceway on June 6, 2021.