Dixie Vodka 400
Homestead-Miami Speedway — October 23, 2022
Kyle Larson
Winner
267
Laps
20
Entries
5
Leaders
Kyle Larson won the 2022 Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway on October 23, 2022, leading 199 of 267 laps. Ross Chastain finished second; A.J. Allmendinger rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, October 23, 2022
Track
Season
2022
Winner
Leaders
5 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21 | +20 | Kyle Larson |
| 2 | 8 | +6 | Ross Chastain |
| 3 | 26 | +23 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 4 | 25 | +21 | Austin Dillon |
| 5 | 19 | +14 | Brad Keselowski |
| 6 | 6 | — | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 7 | 13 | +6 | Denny Hamlin |
| 8 | 7 | -1 | Kevin Harvick |
| 9 | 3 | -6 | Kyle Busch |
| 10 | 14 | +4 | Daniel Suarez |
| 11 | 9 | -2 | Christopher Bell |
| 12 | 2 | -10 | William Byron |
| 13 | 18 | +5 | Chris Buescher |
| 14 | 15 | +1 | Chase Elliott |
| 15 | 32 | +17 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 16 | 24 | +8 | Michael McDowell |
| 17 | 1 | -16 | Ryan Blaney |
| 18 | 11 | -7 | Joey Logano |
| 19 | 20 | +1 | Austin Cindric |
| 20 | 17 | -3 | Harrison Burton |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 4 | 1 | — | 17 |
| Ross Chastain | 3 | 3 | — | 16 |
| Ryan Blaney | 1 | 5 | — | 16 |
| Christopher Bell | 7 | 2 | — | 13 |
| Chase Elliott | 6 | 6 | — | 10 |
| Joey Logano | 8 | 4 | — | 10 |
| Kyle Busch | 5 | 8 | — | 9 |
| William Byron | 2 | 13 | — | 9 |
| Kevin Harvick | 10 | 7 | — | 5 |
| Brad Keselowski | 9 | 10 | — | 3 |
| Kyle Larson | 15 | 9 | — | 2 |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 18 matched drivers, the model averaged 6.2 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Good
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Larson | 12.7 | 1 | +11.7 |
| 2 | Ross Chastain | 13.3 | 2 | +11.3 |
| 3 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18.3 | 3 | +15.3 |
| 4 | Austin Dillon | 17.1 | 4 | +13.1 |
| 5 | Brad Keselowski | 11.2 | 5 | +6.2 |
| 6 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 6 | +9.4 |
| 7 | Denny Hamlin | 8.2 | 7 | +1.2 |
| 9 | Kyle Busch | 17.0 | 9 | +8.0 |
| 10 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 10 | +4.0 |
| 11 | Christopher Bell | 10.7 | 11 | -0.3 |
| 12 | William Byron | 10.7 | 12 | -1.3 |
| 13 | Chris Buescher | 9.2 | 13 | -3.8 |
| 14 | Chase Elliott | 7.8 | 14 | -6.2 |
| 15 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19.9 | 15 | +4.9 |
| 16 | Michael McDowell | 17.0 | 16 | +1.0 |
| 17 | Ryan Blaney | 9.2 | 17 | -7.8 |
| 18 | Joey Logano | 14.7 | 18 | -3.3 |
| 19 | Austin Cindric | 15.4 | 19 | -3.6 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kyle Larson: has 20 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 7.8 avg finish (4 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 13 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 10.4 avg finish, finishing P14 on the day.
- A.J. Allmendinger: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P18. Track history: 19 starts, 13.3 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2022 Dixie Vodka 400?
Kyle Larson won the 2022 Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway driving for Hendrick Motorsports.
Where was the 2022 Dixie Vodka 400 held?
The 2022 Dixie Vodka 400 was held at Homestead-Miami Speedway on October 23, 2022.