FireKeepers Casino 400
Michigan International SpeedwayMichigan International Speedway is 2 miles of fast, sweeping D-shaped oval where momentum rules and horsepower matters. The 18-degree banking in the turns allows cars to run wide open through qualifying and much of the race, and the wide racing surface creates three and sometimes four grooves as tire wear builds over long green-flag runs. Michigan has been on the Cup schedule since 1969 and has long been known as a Ford stronghold — the Roush Racing teams of the early 2000s dominated this place, and Ford manufacturers have won more recent Michigan races than any other. David Pearson's 10 Michigan wins remain the all-time record, and Mark Martin's seven wins here cemented his reputation as a Michigan master. In the modern era, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, and Kyle Larson have all found victory lane at MIS. The 200-lap FireKeepers Casino 400 rewards drivers who can manage long green-flag stints, stretch fuel when necessary, and execute clean pit stops. Because the track is fast and the grooves are wide, side-by-side racing and long passes are common, making this one of the more watchable intermediate events of the season.
Your watchlist, historical context, and race-week curiosities.
Your Drivers' Outlook
Historical Context
- Tyler Reddick has 13 starts at Michigan International Speedway with 2 wins and a 17.8 average finish.
- Chase Elliott has 18 starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 11.3 average finish.
- Denny Hamlin has 42 starts at Michigan International Speedway with 6 wins and a 10.6 average finish.
Based on Cup Series results at Michigan International Speedway from 1949-2026.
Michigan International Speedway is one of the most unpredictable tracks in NASCAR with an average chaos score of 70.0.
Explore Michigan International Speedway statsMark Martin has led 1,393 laps at Michigan International Speedway — more than anyone else.
Mark Martin's statsThe narrative arc, drivers to watch, and race-weekend color.
Schedule, predictions, entry list, track history, fantasy, and betting angles.
TV & Start Time
What channel is the FireKeepers Casino 400 on?
The FireKeepers Casino 400 airs on Prime Video on Sunday, June 7, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET, broadcast from Michigan International Speedway. The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series schedule splits between FOX, FS1, TNT, NBC, USA, and Amazon Prime Video.
What time does the NASCAR Cup race start this race weekend?
The FireKeepers Casino 400 ran on Sunday, June 7, 2026 with a 3:00 PM ET green flag on Prime Video.
NR-Rating Track Rankings
| # | Driver | Elo Rating | Last Finish |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denny Hamlin | 1624 | P1 |
| 2 | Chase Elliott | 1617 | P32 |
| 3 | Tyler Reddick | 1597 | P35 |
| 4 | Chris Buescher | 1591 | P9 |
| 5 | Chase Briscoe | 1579 | P10 |
| 6 | Brad Keselowski | 1570 | P34 |
| 7 | William Byron | 1561 | P18 |
| 8 | Ryan Preece | 1544 | P28 |
| 9 | Bubba Wallace | 1543 | P3 |
| 10 | Christopher Bell | 1539 | P31 |
NR-Rating Predictions
Last updated: Mon, Jun 1, 2026, 11:25 AM ET
| # | Driver | Exp. Finish | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyler Reddick Best in Field | 6.2 | 18.2% |
| 2 | Chase Elliott | 7.8 | 17.8% |
| 3 | Denny Hamlin | 8.2 | 16.3% |
| 4 | Chris Buescher | 9.2 | 15.4% |
| 5 | Ryan Blaney | 9.2 | 12.7% |
| 6 | Ryan Preece | 10.1 | 10.9% |
| 7 | Christopher Bell | 10.7 | 9.6% |
| 8 | William Byron | 10.7 | 8.4% |
| 9 | Brad Keselowski | 11.2 | 7.6% |
| 10 | Chase Briscoe | 11.9 | 6.4% |
| 11 | Kyle Larson | 12.7 | 5.2% |
| 12 | Bubba Wallace | 12.7 | 5.1% |
| 13 | Carson Hocevar | 13.1 | 4.3% |
| 14 | Ross Chastain | 13.3 | 3.8% |
| 15 | Alex Bowman | 13.5 | 3.3% |
| 16 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 3.1% |
| 17 | Ty Gibbs | 14.5 | 3.0% |
| 18 | Joey Logano | 14.7 | 2.7% |
| 19 | Austin Cindric | 15.4 | 2.2% |
| 20 | Erik Jones | 16.7 | 1.7% |
| 21 | Casey Mears | 16.9 | 1.4% |
| 22 | Michael McDowell | 17.0 | 1.2% |
| 23 | Austin Dillon | 17.1 | 0.9% |
| 24 | Shane van Gisbergen | 18.3 | 0.7% |
| 25 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18.3 | 0.5% |
| 26 | Zane Smith | 19.1 | 0.5% |
| 27 | John Hunter Nemechek | 19.1 | 0.5% |
| 28 | Todd Gilliland | 19.1 | 0.4% |
| 29 | Jimmie Johnson | 19.9 | 0.4% |
| 30 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19.9 | 0.3% |
| 31 | Josh Berry | 22.9 | 0.2% |
| 32 | Connor Zilisch | 22.9 | 0.1% |
| 33 | Katherine Legge | 21.4 | 0.1% |
| 34 | Cole Custer | 22.9 | 0.1% |
| 35 | Noah Gragson | 21.4 | 0.1% |
| 36 | Riley Herbst | 21.4 | 0.1% |
| 37 | Ty Dillon | 23.4 | 0.1% |
| 38 | B.J. McLeod | 24.8 | 0.0% |
| 39 | Cody Ware | 56.1 | 0.0% |
Win probabilities reflect full-field Monte Carlo simulations. A 10% pWin means roughly 1-in-10 chance of winning — higher than most bettors realize for a 36-car field where the average driver has ~2.8% odds. Top 5 and Top 10 percentages similarly reflect simulated outcomes, not historical averages. Learn how the model works.
Predictions powered by NR-Rating model (MAE: 8.5 positions)
Prediction Scorecard
Anduril 250: Model picked Denny Hamlin at P1 → Actual P14
(0/5 top-5 hits)
33% top-5 hit rate across 17 races
History at Michigan International Speedway
Cup Series data from 1949-2026 (24 races)
Recent Results
| Year | Race | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | FireKeepers Casino 400 | Denny Hamlin |
| 2025 | FireKeepers Casino 400 | Denny Hamlin |
| 2024 | FireKeepers Casino 400 | Tyler Reddick |
| 2023 | FireKeepers Casino 400 | Chris Buescher |
| 2022 | FireKeepers Casino 400 | Kevin Harvick |
All Results at This Track
Laps Led Leaders
| Driver | Total Laps Led |
|---|---|
| Joey Logano | 590 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 291 |
| Brad Keselowski | 275 |
| Kyle Larson | 267 |
| Chase Elliott | 259 |
Track Type Tendencies
Intermediate tracks like Michigan International Speedway reward the complete package — car setup, pit strategy, and driver consistency all factor in. These are the races where elite teams separate themselves.
Track position and tire management are critical, especially in long green-flag runs.
Fantasy
High laps-led totals at this track
Strong avg finish but no wins — lower ownership