O'Reilly Series Preview Saturday, October 17, 2026

NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Playoff Race at Phoenix

Phoenix Raceway

Laps 200 Distance 200 mi Type short Coverage CW · 7:30 PM ET

asphalt

Surface

Race Date

Saturday, October 17, 2026

7:30 PM ET

Pre-Race Race Day Post-Race

The Hook

Your watchlist, historical context, and race-week curiosities.

Your Drivers' Outlook

Historical Context

Denny Hamlin has 28 starts at Phoenix Raceway with 1 win and a 10.6 average finish.
Ryan Blaney has 22 starts at Phoenix Raceway with 2 wins and a 9.8 average finish.
Christopher Bell has 15 starts at Phoenix Raceway with 2 wins and a 11.7 average finish.

Based on O'Reilly Series results at Phoenix Raceway from 1982-2026.

The Story

The narrative arc, drivers to watch, and race-weekend color.

The Data

Schedule, predictions, entry list, track history, fantasy, and betting angles.

TV & Start Time

What channel is the NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Playoff Race at Phoenix on?

The NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Playoff Race at Phoenix airs on CW on Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET, broadcast from Phoenix Raceway. All 2026 NASCAR Xfinity (O'Reilly Auto Parts) Series races air exclusively on The CW, which is free over-the-air with a digital antenna.

What time does the NASCAR Xfinity race start today?

The NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Playoff Race at Phoenix green flag is set for 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, October 17, 2026, airing on CW. All NASCAR start times are listed in Eastern Time.

NR-Rating Track Rankings

#	Driver	Badge	Elo Rating	Starts	Wins	Last Finish
1	Kyle Larson	Prev Winner	1656	24	1	P3(2026)
2	Ryan Blaney	Prev Winner	1646	21	2	P1(2026)
3	Denny Hamlin	Prev Winner	1642	29	2	P5(2026)
4	Joey Logano	Prev Winner	1605	29	4	P31(2026)
5	Christopher Bell	Prev Winner	1595	13	2	P2(2026)
6	Chase Elliott	Prev Winner	1582	20	1	P23(2026)
7	William Byron	Prev Winner	1560	17	1	P7(2026)
8	Ty Gibbs		1557	7	0	P4(2026)
9	Chase Briscoe	Prev Winner	1556	11	1	P37(2026)
10	Brad Keselowski		1535	29	0	P15(2026)

NR-Rating: Elo-based rating from the NR-Rating prediction model. Higher = stronger at this track type. = Previous winner at this track

NR-Rating Predictions

Last updated: Sun, Aug 16, 2026, 07:09 AM ET

#	Driver	Tier	Exp. Finish	Win %	Top 5 %	Top 10 %
1	Denny Hamlin Best in Field	Favorite	6.8	18.6%	57.4%	75.8%
2	Ryan Blaney	Favorite	6.8	17.5%	56.5%	74.9%
3	Christopher Bell	Favorite	8.3	16.2%	54.5%	73.7%
4	Chase Briscoe	Favorite	8.6	15.7%	52.8%	72.5%
5	Ty Gibbs	Favorite	8.6	12.8%	49.1%	69.3%
6	Chase Elliott	Favorite	9.9	11.6%	46.4%	67.5%
7	Joey Logano	Contender	10.3	9.7%	43.3%	65.5%
8	Kyle Larson	Contender	10.3	8.4%	40.2%	63.6%
9	William Byron	Contender	10.8	7.0%	36.5%	60.8%
10	Chris Buescher	Contender	12.0	6.2%	35.0%	59.3%
11	Tyler Reddick	Contender	12.0	5.0%	31.9%	57.6%
12	Ryan Preece	Contender	12.6	4.4%	30.2%	55.1%
13	Ross Chastain	Contender	12.6	3.5%	26.4%	51.6%
14	Bubba Wallace	Contender	12.6	3.5%	25.0%	50.4%
15	Brad Keselowski	Mid-Pack	13.8	3.1%	23.6%	49.1%
16	Daniel Suarez	Mid-Pack	14.0	2.8%	20.8%	45.5%
17	Austin Cindric	Mid-Pack	14.0	2.3%	18.0%	42.8%
18	Carson Hocevar	Mid-Pack	15.6	1.7%	14.8%	38.0%
19	Alex Bowman	Mid-Pack	15.6	1.7%	14.8%	38.0%
20	Michael McDowell	Mid-Pack	15.6	1.1%	12.5%	35.6%
21	Shane van Gisbergen	Mid-Pack	17.0	0.9%	11.6%	33.1%
22	Austin Dillon	Mid-Pack	17.7	0.6%	8.6%	27.4%
23	Todd Gilliland	Mid-Pack	17.7	0.6%	8.2%	26.3%
24	Erik Jones	Mid-Pack	17.7	0.5%	7.9%	24.8%
25	Jimmie Johnson	Mid-Pack	18.0	0.4%	7.0%	23.2%
26	John Hunter Nemechek	Mid-Pack	19.0	0.4%	4.8%	19.8%
27	Casey Mears	Dark Horse	18.3	0.4%	6.3%	21.6%
28	Josh Berry	Dark Horse	19.0	0.4%	5.0%	20.0%
29	Kevin Magnussen	Dark Horse	19.0	0.4%	5.0%	20.3%
30	A.J. Allmendinger	Dark Horse	20.1	0.3%	4.2%	18.6%
31	Katherine Legge	Dark Horse	21.0	0.3%	2.6%	13.7%
32	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Dark Horse	20.4	0.3%	2.6%	14.2%
33	Zane Smith	Dark Horse	20.2	0.2%	3.3%	16.5%
34	Riley Herbst	Dark Horse	21.7	0.1%	2.4%	11.0%
35	Cole Custer	Dark Horse	22.1	0.1%	1.9%	8.8%
36	Ty Dillon	Dark Horse	23.1	0.1%	1.2%	7.6%
37	Connor Zilisch	Dark Horse	23.0	0.1%	1.4%	7.8%
38	Noah Gragson	Dark Horse	22.1	0.1%	1.8%	8.8%
39	B.J. McLeod	Dark Horse	24.9	0.1%	0.7%	6.1%
40	Cody Ware	Dark Horse	37.3	0.0%	0.2%	0.9%

Win probabilities reflect full-field Monte Carlo simulations. A 10% pWin means roughly 1-in-10 chance of winning, higher than most bettors realize for a 36-car field where the average driver has ~2.8% odds. Top 5 and Top 10 percentages similarly reflect simulated outcomes, not historical averages. Learn how the model works.

Predictions powered by NR-Rating model (MAE: 8.5 positions)

Prediction Scorecard

Anduril 250: Model picked Chase Elliott at P1 → Actual P12

(1/5 top-5 hits)

37% top-5 hit rate across 13 races

History at Phoenix Raceway

O'Reilly Series data from 1982-2026 (11 races)

Recent Results

Year	Race	Winner	Margin	Team	Laps Led
2026	GOVX 200	Justin Allgaier	+0.449	JR Motorsports	11
2025	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix	Jesse Love	—		35
2025	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix	Aric Almirola	—		25
2024	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix	Riley Herbst	—		167
2024	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix	Chandler Smith	—		88

All Results at This Track

2026 Allgaier 2025 Love 2025 Almirola 2024 Herbst 2024 Smith 2023 Custer 2023 Smith 2022 Gibbs 2022 Gragson 2021 Hemric 2021 Cindric

Laps Led Leaders

Driver	Total Laps Led
Justin Allgaier	363
Cole Custer	202
Riley Herbst	167
Jesse Love	155
Ty Gibbs	126

Track Type Tendencies

short

Phoenix Raceway is a short track where driver skill and aggression take center stage. Passing requires contact, tempers run hot, and strategy around restarts and pit timing can make or break a race.

Short tracks historically produce the most lead changes and the closest finishes.