O'Reilly Series Preview Saturday, October 17, 2026

NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Playoff Race at Phoenix

Phoenix Raceway

Laps 200 Distance 200 mi Type short Coverage CW · 7:30 PM ET

asphalt

Surface

Race Date

Saturday, October 17, 2026

7:30 PM ET

Pre-Race Race Day Post-Race

Band A · The Hook

Your watchlist, historical context, and race-week curiosities.

Your Drivers' Outlook

Historical Context

Denny Hamlin has 29 starts at Phoenix Raceway with 1 win and a 11.5 average finish.
Ryan Blaney has 20 starts at Phoenix Raceway with 2 wins and a 7.8 average finish.
Chase Elliott has 18 starts at Phoenix Raceway with 1 win and a 11.6 average finish.

Based on O'Reilly Series results at Phoenix Raceway from 1982-2026.

DID YOU KNOW?

Kyle Busch has won 7 times at Phoenix Raceway with a 7.1 average finish.

See Kyle Busch's full stats

LAST TIME HERE

The last Cup race at Phoenix Raceway was the 2026 Straight Talk Wireless 500 (chaos score: 75.5).

Track history

Band B · The Story

The narrative arc, drivers to watch, and race-weekend color.

Band C · The Data

Schedule, predictions, entry list, track history, fantasy, and betting angles.

TV & Start Time

What channel is the NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Playoff Race at Phoenix on?

The NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Playoff Race at Phoenix airs on CW on Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET, broadcast from Phoenix Raceway. All 2026 NASCAR Xfinity (O'Reilly Auto Parts) Series races air exclusively on The CW, which is free over-the-air with a digital antenna.

What time does the NASCAR Xfinity race start today?

The NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Playoff Race at Phoenix green flag is set for 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, October 17, 2026, airing on CW. All NASCAR start times are listed in Eastern Time.

NR-Rating Track Rankings

#	Driver	Badge	Elo Rating	Starts	Wins	Last Finish
1	Kyle Larson	Prev Winner	1656	27	1	P3(2026)
2	Ryan Blaney	Prev Winner	1648	19	2	P1(2026)
3	Denny Hamlin	Prev Winner	1623	30	2	P5(2026)
4	Christopher Bell	Prev Winner	1594	12	2	P2(2026)
5	Joey Logano	Prev Winner	1577	30	4	P31(2026)
6	Chase Elliott	Prev Winner	1575	19	1	P23(2026)
7	William Byron	Prev Winner	1550	17	1	P7(2026)
8	Ty Gibbs		1544	6	0	P4(2026)
9	Ross Chastain	Prev Winner	1539	12	1	P28(2026)
10	Brad Keselowski		1536	29	0	P15(2026)

NR-Rating: Elo-based rating from the NR-Rating prediction model. Higher = stronger at this track type. = Previous winner at this track

NR-Rating Predictions

Last updated: Wed, May 13, 2026, 07:50 AM ET

#	Driver	Tier	Exp. Finish	Win %	Top 5 %	Top 10 %
1	Denny Hamlin Best in Field	Favorite	6.8	18.6%	57.4%	75.8%
2	Ryan Blaney	Favorite	6.8	17.5%	56.5%	74.9%
3	Chase Elliott	Favorite	8.3	16.2%	54.5%	73.7%
4	Kyle Larson	Favorite	8.6	13.2%	49.6%	69.7%
5	Christopher Bell	Favorite	8.6	13.2%	49.6%	69.7%
6	Tyler Reddick	Favorite	9.9	11.5%	46.2%	67.5%
7	Chris Buescher	Contender	10.3	9.5%	42.9%	65.3%
8	William Byron	Contender	10.3	8.2%	38.9%	62.3%
9	Ryan Preece	Contender	10.8	7.0%	36.4%	60.8%
10	Brad Keselowski	Contender	12.0	5.5%	33.9%	58.6%
11	Joey Logano	Contender	12.1	4.9%	31.2%	56.4%
12	Ty Gibbs	Contender	12.6	4.3%	29.9%	54.7%
13	Chase Briscoe	Contender	12.6	3.5%	26.2%	51.2%
14	Ross Chastain	Contender	13.8	3.4%	24.9%	50.2%
15	Bubba Wallace	Mid-Pack	14.0	2.7%	20.6%	45.7%
16	Alex Bowman	Mid-Pack	14.0	2.7%	20.6%	45.7%
17	Carson Hocevar	Mid-Pack	14.7	2.4%	17.8%	42.8%
18	Michael McDowell	Mid-Pack	15.0	2.1%	16.7%	41.1%
19	Daniel Suarez	Mid-Pack	15.6	1.7%	15.2%	38.3%
20	Kyle Busch	Mid-Pack	15.6	1.3%	13.3%	35.5%
21	Austin Dillon	Mid-Pack	17.0	0.8%	10.2%	30.9%
22	Austin Cindric	Mid-Pack	17.0	0.8%	10.8%	32.6%
23	Todd Gilliland	Mid-Pack	17.1	0.7%	9.1%	28.8%
24	Casey Mears	Mid-Pack	18.0	0.6%	7.3%	23.8%
25	Erik Jones	Mid-Pack	17.7	0.5%	8.1%	25.8%
26	Shane van Gisbergen	Mid-Pack	18.3	0.4%	6.4%	21.9%
27	Josh Berry	Dark Horse	19.0	0.4%	5.0%	20.3%
28	John Hunter Nemechek	Dark Horse	20.1	0.3%	4.2%	18.6%
29	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Dark Horse	20.1	0.3%	4.2%	18.6%
30	A.J. Allmendinger	Dark Horse	18.3	0.3%	5.7%	21.0%
31	Connor Zilisch	Dark Horse	21.2	0.2%	2.4%	11.9%
32	Katherine Legge	Dark Horse	21.2	0.2%	2.4%	12.4%
33	Zane Smith	Dark Horse	20.2	0.2%	3.3%	16.3%
34	Noah Gragson	Dark Horse	23.0	0.1%	1.5%	8.1%
35	Riley Herbst	Dark Horse	22.1	0.1%	1.9%	8.6%
36	Cole Custer	Dark Horse	23.0	0.1%	1.6%	8.4%
37	Ty Dillon	Dark Horse	24.3	0.1%	0.8%	6.0%
38	B.J. McLeod	Dark Horse	25.6	0.0%	0.6%	4.3%
39	Cody Ware	Dark Horse	29.8	0.0%	0.1%	1.0%

Win probabilities reflect full-field Monte Carlo simulations. A 10% pWin means roughly 1-in-10 chance of winning — higher than most bettors realize for a 36-car field where the average driver has ~2.8% odds. Top 5 and Top 10 percentages similarly reflect simulated outcomes, not historical averages. Learn how the model works.

Predictions powered by NR-Rating model (MAE: 8.5 positions)

Prediction Scorecard

Go Bowling at The Glen: Model picked Chase Elliott at P1 → Actual P24

(1/5 top-5 hits)

38% top-5 hit rate across 11 races

History at Phoenix Raceway

O'Reilly Series data from 1982-2026 (11 races)

Recent Results

Year	Race	Winner	Margin	Team	Laps Led
2026	GOVX 200	Justin Allgaier	+0.449	JR Motorsports	11
2025	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix	Jesse Love	—		35
2025	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix	Aric Almirola	—		25
2024	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix	Riley Herbst	—		167
2024	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix	Chandler Smith	—		88

All Results at This Track

2026 Allgaier 2025 Love 2025 Almirola 2024 Herbst 2024 Smith 2023 Custer 2023 Smith 2022 Gibbs 2022 Gragson 2021 Hemric 2021 Cindric

Laps Led Leaders

Driver	Total Laps Led
Justin Allgaier	363
Cole Custer	202
Riley Herbst	167
Jesse Love	155
Ty Gibbs	126

Track Type Tendencies

short

Phoenix Raceway is a short track where driver skill and aggression take center stage. Passing requires contact, tempers run hot, and strategy around restarts and pit timing can make or break a race.

Short tracks historically produce the most lead changes and the closest finishes.