O'Reilly Series Preview Saturday, October 17, 2026

NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Playoff Race at Phoenix

Phoenix Raceway

Laps 200 Distance 200 mi Type short Coverage CW · 7:30 PM ET

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Pre-Race Race Day Post-Race

The Hook

Your watchlist, historical context, and race-week curiosities.

Your Drivers' Outlook

Historical Context

Denny Hamlin has 28 starts at Phoenix Raceway with 1 win and a 10.6 average finish.
Christopher Bell has 15 starts at Phoenix Raceway with 2 wins and a 11.7 average finish.
Kyle Larson has 19 starts at Phoenix Raceway with 1 win and a 8.6 average finish.

Based on O'Reilly Series results at Phoenix Raceway from 1982-2026.

The Story

The narrative arc, drivers to watch, and race-weekend color.

The Data

Schedule, predictions, entry list, track history, fantasy, and betting angles.

TV & Start Time

What channel is the NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Playoff Race at Phoenix on?

The NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Playoff Race at Phoenix airs on CW on Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET, broadcast from Phoenix Raceway. All 2026 NASCAR Xfinity (O'Reilly Auto Parts) Series races air exclusively on The CW, which is free over-the-air with a digital antenna.

What time does the NASCAR Xfinity race start today?

The NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Playoff Race at Phoenix green flag is set for 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, October 17, 2026, airing on CW. All NASCAR start times are listed in Eastern Time.

NR-Rating Track Rankings

#	Driver	Badge	Elo Rating	Starts	Wins	Last Finish
1	Kyle Larson	Prev Winner	1672	24	1	P3 (2026)
2	Denny Hamlin	Prev Winner	1650	29	2	P5 (2026)
3	Ryan Blaney	Prev Winner	1633	21	2	P1 (2026)
4	Joey Logano	Prev Winner	1616	29	4	P31 (2026)
5	Christopher Bell	Prev Winner	1615	13	2	P2 (2026)
6	Ty Gibbs		1577	7	0	P4 (2026)
7	Chase Elliott	Prev Winner	1560	20	1	P23 (2026)
8	William Byron	Prev Winner	1550	17	1	P7 (2026)
9	Ryan Preece		1541	14	0	P13 (2026)
10	Brad Keselowski		1541	29	0	P15 (2026)

NR-Rating: Elo-based rating from the NR-Rating prediction model. Higher = stronger at this track type. = Previous winner at this track

NR-Rating Predictions

Last updated: Mon, Sep 28, 2026, 07:16 AM ET

#	Driver	Tier	Exp. Finish	Win %	Top 5 %	Top 10 %
1	Denny Hamlin Best in Field	Favorite	6.8	18.6%	57.4%	75.8%
2	Christopher Bell	Favorite	6.8	17.5%	56.5%	74.9%
3	Kyle Larson	Favorite	8.3	16.2%	54.5%	73.7%
4	Ryan Blaney	Favorite	8.6	15.7%	52.8%	72.4%
5	Ty Gibbs	Favorite	8.6	12.8%	49.1%	69.3%
6	Joey Logano	Favorite	9.9	11.7%	46.5%	67.7%
7	Chase Briscoe	Contender	10.3	9.7%	43.3%	65.5%
8	Tyler Reddick	Contender	10.3	8.4%	40.2%	63.6%
9	William Byron	Contender	10.8	7.3%	37.0%	61.2%
10	Ryan Preece	Contender	12.0	6.3%	35.1%	59.4%
11	Chase Elliott	Contender	12.0	5.0%	32.2%	57.6%
12	Bubba Wallace	Contender	12.6	4.5%	30.2%	55.3%
13	Chris Buescher	Contender	12.6	3.9%	27.2%	52.3%
14	Austin Cindric	Contender	13.8	3.4%	24.9%	50.2%
15	Brad Keselowski	Mid-Pack	13.8	3.4%	24.9%	50.2%
16	Ross Chastain	Mid-Pack	14.0	3.1%	21.9%	46.3%
17	Carson Hocevar	Mid-Pack	14.0	2.3%	18.3%	42.8%
18	Daniel Suarez	Mid-Pack	15.0	2.1%	17.0%	41.5%
19	Alex Bowman	Mid-Pack	15.0	2.0%	16.6%	41.0%
20	Michael McDowell	Mid-Pack	15.6	1.3%	12.9%	35.5%
21	Austin Dillon	Mid-Pack	17.0	0.9%	10.7%	32.6%
22	Josh Berry	Mid-Pack	17.1	0.8%	9.4%	29.4%
23	Todd Gilliland	Mid-Pack	17.7	0.5%	8.1%	25.8%
24	Jimmie Johnson	Mid-Pack	17.7	0.5%	7.9%	24.9%
25	Shane van Gisbergen	Mid-Pack	17.7	0.5%	8.1%	26.9%
26	Kevin Magnussen	Mid-Pack	19.0	0.4%	5.0%	20.3%
27	John Hunter Nemechek	Dark Horse	19.0	0.4%	5.0%	20.3%
28	Erik Jones	Dark Horse	18.3	0.4%	6.5%	22.3%
29	A.J. Allmendinger	Dark Horse	20.1	0.3%	4.4%	19.1%
30	Casey Mears	Dark Horse	18.3	0.3%	5.7%	21.0%
31	Katherine Legge	Dark Horse	21.0	0.3%	2.5%	13.7%
32	Noah Gragson	Dark Horse	21.0	0.2%	2.5%	13.1%
33	Zane Smith	Dark Horse	21.2	0.2%	2.3%	12.2%
34	Cole Custer	Dark Horse	22.0	0.2%	2.1%	9.7%
35	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Dark Horse	22.1	0.1%	1.8%	8.9%
36	Ty Dillon	Dark Horse	24.9	0.1%	0.7%	6.0%
37	Riley Herbst	Dark Horse	23.1	0.1%	1.0%	6.7%
38	B.J. McLeod	Dark Horse	24.9	0.1%	0.7%	5.5%
39	Connor Zilisch	Dark Horse	26.7	0.0%	0.4%	3.4%
40	Cody Ware	Dark Horse	37.3	0.0%	0.2%	0.9%

Win probabilities reflect full-field Monte Carlo simulations. A 10% pWin means roughly 1-in-10 chance of winning, higher than most bettors realize for a 36-car field where the average driver has ~2.8% odds. Top 5 and Top 10 percentages similarly reflect simulated outcomes, not historical averages. Learn how the model works.

Predictions powered by NR-Rating model (MAE: 8.5 positions)

Prediction Scorecard

Enjoy Illinois 300: Model picked Denny Hamlin at P1 → Actual P9

(0/5 top-5 hits)

35% top-5 hit rate across 8 races

History at Phoenix Raceway

O'Reilly Series data from 1982-2026 (11 races)

Recent Results

Year	Race	Winner	Margin	Team	Laps Led
2026	GOVX 200	Justin Allgaier	+0.449	JR Motorsports	11
2025	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix	Jesse Love	—		35
2025	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix	Aric Almirola	—		25
2024	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix	Riley Herbst	—		167
2024	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix	Chandler Smith	—		88

All Results at This Track

2026 Allgaier 2025 Love 2025 Almirola 2024 Herbst 2024 Smith 2023 Custer 2023 Smith 2022 Gibbs 2022 Gragson 2021 Hemric 2021 Cindric

Laps Led Leaders

Driver	Total Laps Led
Justin Allgaier	363
Cole Custer	202
Riley Herbst	167
Jesse Love	155
Ty Gibbs	126

Track Type Tendencies

short

Phoenix Raceway is a short track where driver skill and aggression take center stage. Passing requires contact, tempers run hot, and strategy around restarts and pit timing can make or break a race.

Short tracks historically produce the most lead changes and the closest finishes.