NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series at Bristol pres. by Pennzoil

Bristol Motor Speedway — August 25, 2007

Carl Edwards

Winner

500

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Carl Edwards won the 2007 NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series at Bristol pres. by Pennzoil at Bristol Motor Speedway on August 25, 2007, leading 182 of 500 laps. Kasey Kahne finished second; Clint Bowyer rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Saturday, August 25, 2007

Track

Bristol Motor Speedway

Season

2007

Winner

Carl Edwards

Leaders

8 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	6	+5	Carl Edwards		500	—	Running	182	190
2	1	-1	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	500	—	Running	305	180
3	15	+12	Clint Bowyer		500	—	Running	—	165
4	23	+19	Tony Stewart		500	—	Running	—	160
5	17	+12	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		500	—	Running	1	160
6	19	+13	Kurt Busch	Dodge	500	—	Running	2	155
7	7	—	Ryan Newman	Dodge	500	—	Running	2	151
8	22	+14	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	142
9	20	+11	Kyle Busch		500	—	Running	3	143
10	34	+24	Greg Biffle		500	—	Running	—	134
11	25	+14	Martin Truex, Jr.		500	—	Running	—	130
12	10	-2	Jeff Burton		500	—	Running	—	127
13	40	+27	J.J. Yeley		500	—	Running	—	124
14	36	+22	David Stremme	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	121
15	29	+14	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	118
16	13	-3	Kevin Harvick		500	—	Running	—	115
17	2	-15	Juan Pablo Montoya	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	112
18	11	-7	Scott Riggs	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	109
19	18	-1	Jeff Gordon		500	—	Running	2	111
20	24	+4	Robby Gordon		500	—	Running	3	108
21	9	-12	Jimmie Johnson		499	—	Running	—	100
22	30	+8	Casey Mears		498	—	Running	—	97
23	16	-7	Michael Waltrip		498	—	Running	—	94
24	41	+17	Paul Menard		498	—	Running	—	91
25	26	+1	Bill Elliott		498	—	Running	—	88
26	3	-23	Jamie McMurray		498	—	Running	—	85
27	39	+12	Jeff Green		498	—	Running	—	82
28	42	+14	Tony Raines		498	—	Running	—	79
29	21	-8	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	497	—	Running	—	76
30	27	-3	David Gilliland		497	—	Running	—	73
31	5	-26	Dave Blaney		496	—	Running	—	70
32	32	—	Kenny Wallace	Dodge	496	—	Running	—	67
33	14	-19	Ward Burton		494	—	Running	—	64
34	33	-1	Dale Jarrett		494	—	Running	—	61
35	43	+8	A.J. Allmendinger		491	—	Running	—	58
36	35	-1	Aric Almirola		485	—	Running	—	55
37	31	-6	Jeremy Mayfield		481	—	Running	—	52
38	8	-30	Ricky Rudd		478	—	Running	—	49
39	12	-27	Matt Kenseth		452	—	Running	—	46
40	28	-12	John Andretti	Dodge	416	—	DNF	—	43
41	4	-37	David Ragan		414	—	DNF	—	40
42	38	-4	Johnny Sauter		280	—	DNF	—	37
43	37	-6	Denny Hamlin		209	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 7 matched drivers, the model averaged 12.1 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
9	Kyle Busch	15.6	9	+6.6	Coinflip
11	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	11	+2.8	Coinflip
13	J.J. Yeley	28.1	13	+15.1	High Confidence
21	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	21	-3.3	Moderate
22	Casey Mears	18.0	22	-4.0	Moderate
35	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	35	-16.7	Moderate
43	Denny Hamlin	6.8	43	-36.2	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Carl Edwards: has 38 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 13.0 avg finish (6 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 48 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.3 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P43 on the day.
J.J. Yeley: was the biggest surprise, finishing P13 vs predicted P28. Track history: 37 starts, 28.0 avg finish.

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