NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series at Michigan
Michigan International Speedway — August 19, 2007
Kurt Busch
Winner
203
Laps
43
Entries
10
Leaders
Kurt Busch won the 2007 NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series at Michigan at Michigan International Speedway on August 19, 2007, leading 92 of 203 laps. Martin Truex, Jr. finished second; Jimmie Johnson rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, August 19, 2007
Season
2007
Winner
Leaders
10 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | +14 | Kurt Busch |
| 2 | 14 | +12 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 3 | 7 | +4 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 4 | 21 | +17 | Matt Kenseth |
| 5 | 8 | +3 | Denny Hamlin |
| 6 | 17 | +11 | Dave Blaney |
| 7 | 13 | +6 | Carl Edwards |
| 8 | 18 | +10 | Brian Vickers |
| 9 | 4 | -5 | Bobby Labonte |
| 10 | 35 | +25 | Tony Stewart |
| 11 | 29 | +18 | Casey Mears |
| 12 | 39 | +27 | Dale Earnhardt, Jr. |
| 13 | 6 | -7 | Kyle Busch |
| 14 | 19 | +5 | Jeff Burton |
| 15 | 28 | +13 | Kevin Harvick |
| 16 | 34 | +18 | Ryan Newman |
| 17 | 9 | -8 | Clint Bowyer |
| 18 | 25 | +7 | David Ragan |
| 19 | 2 | -17 | Greg Biffle |
| 20 | 27 | +7 | Ward Burton |
| 21 | 20 | -1 | David Stremme |
| 22 | 40 | +18 | Jeff Green |
| 23 | 12 | -11 | David Reutimann |
| 24 | 30 | +6 | Robby Gordon |
| 25 | 31 | +6 | J.J. Yeley |
| 26 | 26 | — | Juan Pablo Montoya |
| 27 | 1 | -26 | Jeff Gordon |
| 28 | 24 | -4 | David Gilliland |
| 29 | 41 | +12 | Johnny Sauter |
| 30 | 36 | +6 | Jamie McMurray |
| 31 | 3 | -28 | Kasey Kahne |
| 32 | 5 | -27 | Elliott Sadler |
| 33 | 22 | -11 | Ricky Rudd |
| 34 | 37 | +3 | Tony Raines |
| 35 | 23 | -12 | Bill Elliott |
| 36 | 43 | +7 | Scott Riggs |
| 37 | 16 | -21 | John Andretti |
| 38 | 33 | -5 | Reed Sorenson |
| 39 | 38 | -1 | Paul Menard |
| 40 | 11 | -29 | Michael Waltrip |
| 41 | 42 | +1 | Chad McCumbee |
| 42 | 10 | -32 | Mark Martin |
| 43 | 32 | -11 | Joe Nemechek |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 6 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.9 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 2 | +13.4 |
| 3 | Jimmie Johnson | 19.9 | 3 | +16.9 |
| 5 | Denny Hamlin | 8.2 | 5 | +3.2 |
| 11 | Casey Mears | 16.9 | 11 | +5.9 |
| 13 | Kyle Busch | 17.0 | 13 | +4.0 |
| 25 | J.J. Yeley | 28.8 | 25 | +3.8 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kurt Busch: has 46 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 16.4 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 41 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 10.9 avg finish (5 wins), finishing P5 on the day.
- Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P20. Track history: 42 starts, 17.1 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2007 NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series at Michigan?
Kurt Busch won the 2007 NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series at Michigan at Michigan International Speedway.
Where was the 2007 NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series at Michigan held?
The 2007 NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series at Michigan was held at Michigan International Speedway on August 19, 2007.