Daytona 500

Daytona International Speedway — February 18, 2007

Kevin Harvick

Winner

202

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kevin Harvick won the 2007 Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway on February 18, 2007, leading 4 of 202 laps. Mark Martin finished second; Jeff Burton rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, February 18, 2007

Track

Daytona International Speedway

Season

2007

Winner

Kevin Harvick

Leaders

9 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	34	+33	Kevin Harvick		202	—	Running	4	190
2	26	+24	Mark Martin		202	—	Running	26	175
3	7	+4	Jeff Burton		202	—	Running	—	165
4	22	+18	Mike Wallace		202	—	Running	—	160
5	35	+30	David Ragan		202	—	Running	—	155
6	30	+24	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	202	—	Running	—	150
7	28	+21	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	202	—	Running	—	146
8	1	-7	David Gilliland		202	—	Running	18	147
9	18	+9	Joe Nemechek		202	—	Running	—	138
10	42	+32	Jeff Gordon		202	—	Running	—	134
11	6	-5	David Stremme	Dodge	202	—	Running	—	130
12	12	—	J.J. Yeley		202	—	Running	—	127
13	33	+20	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	202	—	Running	—	124
14	23	+9	Boris Said		202	—	Running	—	121
15	39	+24	Robby Gordon		202	—	Running	—	118
16	41	+25	Johnny Sauter		202	—	Running	—	115
17	38	+21	Sterling Marlin		202	—	Running	—	112
18	11	-7	Clint Bowyer		202	—	Running	—	109
19	36	+17	Juan Pablo Montoya	Dodge	202	—	Running	—	106
20	17	-3	Casey Mears		202	—	Running	—	103
21	27	+6	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	202	—	Running	—	100
22	43	+21	Dale Jarrett		202	—	Running	—	97
23	14	-9	Carl Edwards		202	—	Running	—	94
24	8	-16	Kyle Busch		202	—	Running	4	96
25	25	—	Greg Biffle		202	—	Running	—	88
26	2	-24	Ricky Rudd		202	—	Running	—	85
27	10	-17	Matt Kenseth		202	—	Running	6	87
28	9	-19	Denny Hamlin		201	—	Running	—	79
29	13	-16	Martin Truex, Jr.		201	—	Running	13	81
30	15	-15	Michael Waltrip		200	—	Running	—	73
31	24	-7	Jamie McMurray		195	—	Running	—	70
32	5	-27	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		195	—	Running	—	67
33	20	-13	Tony Raines		195	—	Running	—	64
34	37	+3	Dave Blaney		186	—	Running	—	61
35	19	-16	Ken Schrader		185	—	Running	—	58
36	31	-5	Jeff Green		181	—	Running	—	55
37	32	-5	Scott Riggs	Dodge	179	—	Running	—	52
38	16	-22	Ryan Newman	Dodge	175	—	Running	1	54
39	21	-18	Jimmie Johnson		173	—	Running	—	46
40	40	—	David Reutimann		173	—	Running	—	43
41	4	-37	Kurt Busch	Dodge	166	—	DNF	95	50
42	29	-13	Kyle Petty	Dodge	160	—	DNF	—	37
43	3	-40	Tony Stewart		152	—	DNF	35	39

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 6 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.8 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
12	J.J. Yeley	25.2	12	+13.2	High Confidence
20	Casey Mears	18.5	20	-1.5	Coinflip
24	Kyle Busch	15.1	24	-8.9	Coinflip
28	Denny Hamlin	16.0	28	-12.0	Coinflip
29	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.1	29	-8.9	Coinflip
39	Jimmie Johnson	18.9	39	-20.1	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kevin Harvick: has 58 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 13.9 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Kyle Busch: was the model’s top pick based on 69 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 17.3 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P24 on the day.
J.J. Yeley: was the biggest surprise, finishing P12 vs predicted P25. Track history: 37 starts, 22.9 avg finish.

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