NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series at Michigan

Michigan International Speedway — June 17, 2007

Carl Edwards

Winner

200

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Carl Edwards won the 2007 NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series at Michigan at Michigan International Speedway on June 17, 2007, leading 63 of 200 laps. Martin Truex, Jr. finished second; Tony Stewart rounded out the podium. The race featured 11 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, June 17, 2007

Track

Michigan International Speedway

Season

2007

Winner

Carl Edwards

Leaders

11 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	12	+11	Carl Edwards		200	—	Running	63	195
2	8	+6	Martin Truex, Jr.		200	—	Running	54	175
3	41	+38	Tony Stewart		200	—	Running	2	170
4	13	+9	Casey Mears		200	—	Running	1	165
5	23	+18	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		200	—	Running	1	160
6	3	-3	Kyle Busch		200	—	Running	—	150
7	19	+12	Kevin Harvick		200	—	Running	—	146
8	35	+27	Jamie McMurray		200	—	Running	—	142
9	6	-3	Jeff Gordon		200	—	Running	18	143
10	18	+8	Michael Waltrip		199	—	Running	1	139
11	21	+10	Bill Elliott		199	—	Running	—	130
12	38	+26	Paul Menard		199	—	Running	1	132
13	30	+17	Robby Gordon		199	—	Running	—	124
14	7	-7	Denny Hamlin		199	—	Running	1	126
15	40	+25	David Reutimann		199	—	Running	—	118
16	11	-5	Clint Bowyer		199	—	Running	—	115
17	20	+3	David Gilliland		199	—	Running	—	112
18	17	-1	Dave Blaney		199	—	Running	—	109
19	2	-17	Jimmie Johnson		199	—	Running	56	111
20	27	+7	Sterling Marlin		199	—	Running	—	103
21	34	+13	David Ragan		198	—	Running	—	100
22	25	+3	Ricky Rudd		198	—	Running	—	97
23	29	+6	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	198	—	Running	—	94
24	9	-15	Jeff Burton		198	—	Running	—	91
25	10	-15	Kurt Busch	Dodge	198	—	Running	2	93
26	28	+2	Johnny Sauter		198	—	Running	—	85
27	37	+10	John Andretti	Dodge	198	—	Running	—	82
28	1	-27	J.J. Yeley		198	—	Running	—	79
29	15	-14	Mark Martin		198	—	Running	—	76
30	5	-25	Joe Nemechek		198	—	Running	—	73
31	43	+12	A.J. Allmendinger		197	—	Running	—	70
32	36	+4	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	197	—	Running	—	67
33	22	-11	Scott Riggs	Dodge	197	—	Running	—	64
34	31	-3	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	197	—	Running	—	61
35	39	+4	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	196	—	Running	—	58
36	42	+6	Jeff Green		196	—	Running	—	55
37	4	-33	Ryan Newman	Dodge	196	—	Running	—	52
38	14	-24	Greg Biffle		192	—	Running	—	49
39	32	-7	Tony Raines		184	—	Running	—	46
40	24	-16	David Stremme	Dodge	183	—	Running	—	43
41	16	-25	Brian Vickers		140	—	DNF	—	40
42	26	-16	Matt Kenseth		78	—	DNF	—	37
43	33	-10	Juan Pablo Montoya	Dodge	67	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 7 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.2 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	2	+13.4	Coinflip
4	Casey Mears	16.9	4	+12.9	Coinflip
6	Kyle Busch	17.0	6	+11.0	Coinflip
14	Denny Hamlin	8.2	14	-5.8	High Confidence
19	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	19	+0.9	Moderate
28	J.J. Yeley	28.8	28	+0.8	High Confidence
31	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	31	-12.7	Moderate

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Carl Edwards: has 32 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 10.7 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 41 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 10.9 avg finish (5 wins), finishing P14 on the day.
Martin Truex, Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P15. Track history: 35 starts, 13.7 avg finish.

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