NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series at Pocono

Pocono Raceway — June 10, 2007

Jeff Gordon

Winner

106

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jeff Gordon won the 2007 NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series at Pocono at Pocono Raceway on June 10, 2007, leading 26 of 106 laps. Ryan Newman finished second; Martin Truex, Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, June 10, 2007

Track

Pocono Raceway

Season

2007

Winner

Jeff Gordon

Leaders

8 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	18	+17	Jeff Gordon		106	—	Running	26	190
2	1	-1	Ryan Newman	Dodge	106	—	Running	20	175
3	3	—	Martin Truex, Jr.		106	—	Running	1	170
4	12	+8	Casey Mears		106	—	Running	2	165
5	6	+1	Tony Stewart		106	—	Running	3	160
6	2	-4	Denny Hamlin		106	—	Running	49	160
7	34	+27	Mark Martin		106	—	Running	1	151
8	4	-4	Kyle Busch		106	—	Running	—	142
9	24	+15	Matt Kenseth		106	—	Running	—	138
10	5	-5	Clint Bowyer		106	—	Running	—	134
11	19	+8	Kevin Harvick		106	—	Running	—	130
12	13	+1	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		106	—	Running	—	127
13	10	-3	Jeff Burton		106	—	Running	—	124
14	32	+18	Carl Edwards		106	—	Running	4	126
15	33	+18	Joe Nemechek		106	—	Running	—	118
16	27	+11	Kurt Busch	Dodge	106	—	Running	—	115
17	11	-6	J.J. Yeley		106	—	Running	—	112
18	31	+13	Scott Riggs	Dodge	106	—	Running	—	109
19	26	+7	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	106	—	Running	—	106
20	38	+18	Juan Pablo Montoya	Dodge	106	—	Running	—	103
21	15	-6	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	106	—	Running	—	100
22	8	-14	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	106	—	Running	—	97
23	29	+6	David Stremme	Dodge	106	—	Running	—	94
24	22	-2	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	106	—	Running	—	91
25	35	+10	Chad McCumbee	Dodge	106	—	Running	—	88
26	36	+10	David Ragan		106	—	Running	—	85
27	30	+3	Ricky Rudd		106	—	Running	—	82
28	21	-7	Paul Menard		106	—	Running	—	79
29	25	-4	Jamie McMurray		106	—	Running	—	76
30	41	+11	Greg Biffle		106	—	Running	—	73
31	42	+11	Sterling Marlin		106	—	Running	—	70
32	39	+7	Jeff Green		106	—	Running	—	67
33	20	-13	Ward Burton		106	—	Running	—	64
34	16	-18	David Gilliland		106	—	Running	—	61
35	9	-26	Brian Vickers		106	—	Running	—	58
36	17	-19	Tony Raines		106	—	Running	—	55
37	43	+6	Bill Elliott		105	—	Running	—	52
38	23	-15	David Reutimann		105	—	Running	—	49
39	28	-11	A.J. Allmendinger		104	—	Running	—	46
40	40	—	Johnny Sauter		103	—	Running	—	43
41	37	-4	Robby Gordon		103	—	Running	—	40
42	7	-35	Jimmie Johnson		97	—	Running	—	37
43	14	-29	Dave Blaney		55	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 7 matched drivers, the model averaged 13.0 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
3	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	3	+12.4	Coinflip
4	Casey Mears	16.9	4	+12.9	Coinflip
6	Denny Hamlin	8.2	6	+2.2	High Confidence
8	Kyle Busch	17.0	8	+9.0	Coinflip
17	J.J. Yeley	28.8	17	+11.8	High Confidence
39	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	39	-20.7	Moderate
42	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	42	-22.1	Moderate

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jeff Gordon: has 47 career starts at Pocono Raceway with a 10.2 avg finish (6 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 38 career starts at Pocono Raceway with a 10.5 avg finish (7 wins), finishing P6 on the day.
Casey Mears: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P17. Track history: 29 starts, 23.3 avg finish.

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