NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series at Pocono pres. by Rush Hour 3

Pocono Raceway — August 5, 2007

Kurt Busch

Winner

200

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kurt Busch won the 2007 NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series at Pocono pres. by Rush Hour 3 at Pocono Raceway on August 5, 2007, leading 175 of 200 laps. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. finished second; Denny Hamlin rounded out the podium. The race featured 11 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, August 5, 2007

Track

Pocono Raceway

Season

2007

Winner

Kurt Busch

Leaders

11 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	2	+1	Kurt Busch	Dodge	200	—	Running	175	195
2	1	-1	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		200	—	Running	8	175
3	6	+3	Denny Hamlin		200	—	Running	—	165
4	11	+7	Jeff Gordon		200	—	Running	—	160
5	7	+2	Jimmie Johnson		200	—	Running	—	155
6	24	+18	Tony Stewart		200	—	Running	—	150
7	4	-3	Ryan Newman	Dodge	200	—	Running	1	151
8	15	+7	Clint Bowyer		200	—	Running	1	147
9	25	+16	Mark Martin		200	—	Running	—	138
10	8	-2	Casey Mears		200	—	Running	—	134
11	18	+7	Jeff Burton		200	—	Running	—	130
12	3	-9	Kyle Busch		200	—	Running	2	132
13	20	+7	Ricky Rudd		200	—	Running	—	124
14	37	+23	Matt Kenseth		200	—	Running	1	126
15	17	+2	Tony Raines		200	—	Running	—	118
16	9	-7	Juan Pablo Montoya	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	115
17	23	+6	Kevin Harvick		200	—	Running	—	112
18	21	+3	Bill Elliott		200	—	Running	1	114
19	32	+13	Jeff Green		200	—	Running	4	111
20	19	-1	Dave Blaney		200	—	Running	—	103
21	29	+8	Carl Edwards		200	—	Running	—	100
22	13	-9	Martin Truex, Jr.		200	—	Running	1	102
23	12	-11	Greg Biffle		200	—	Running	—	94
24	16	-8	Scott Riggs	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	91
25	34	+9	David Stremme	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	88
26	35	+9	Paul Menard		200	—	Running	—	85
27	5	-22	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	82
28	10	-18	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	200	—	Running	5	84
29	28	-1	Brian Vickers		200	—	Running	—	76
30	26	-4	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	199	—	Running	1	78
31	43	+12	Jeremy Mayfield		199	—	Running	—	70
32	14	-18	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	198	—	Running	—	67
33	36	+3	David Ragan		198	—	Running	—	64
34	42	+8	Kyle Petty	Dodge	198	—	Running	—	61
35	27	-8	J.J. Yeley		198	—	Running	—	58
36	41	+5	Johnny Sauter		198	—	Running	—	55
37	30	-7	P.J. Jones		198	—	Running	—	52
38	39	+1	Michael Waltrip		194	—	Running	—	49
39	33	-6	David Gilliland		192	—	Running	—	46
40	22	-18	Jamie McMurray		177	—	Running	—	43
41	31	-10	David Reutimann		159	—	DNF	—	40
42	40	-2	Dale Jarrett		151	—	DNF	—	37
43	38	-5	Ward Burton		109	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 6 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.5 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
3	Denny Hamlin	8.2	3	+5.2	High Confidence
5	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	5	+14.9	Moderate
10	Casey Mears	16.9	10	+6.9	Coinflip
12	Kyle Busch	17.0	12	+5.0	Coinflip
22	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	22	-6.6	Coinflip
35	J.J. Yeley	28.8	35	-6.2	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kurt Busch: has 41 career starts at Pocono Raceway with a 14.3 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 38 career starts at Pocono Raceway with a 10.5 avg finish (7 wins), finishing P3 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P5 vs predicted P20. Track history: 37 starts, 12.4 avg finish.

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