NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series at Watkins Glen

Watkins Glen International — August 12, 2007

Tony Stewart

Winner

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Tony Stewart won the 2007 NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series at Watkins Glen at Watkins Glen International on August 12, 2007, leading 20 of 90 laps. Denny Hamlin finished second; Jimmie Johnson rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, August 12, 2007

Track

Watkins Glen International

Season

2007

Winner

Tony Stewart

Leaders

6 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	5	+4	Tony Stewart		90	—	Running	20	190
2	2	—	Denny Hamlin		90	—	Running	—	170
3	7	+4	Jimmie Johnson		90	—	Running	—	165
4	26	+22	Ron Fellows		90	—	Running	—	160
5	29	+24	Robby Gordon		90	—	Running	—	155
6	12	+6	Martin Truex, Jr.		90	—	Running	—	150
7	8	+1	Kyle Busch		90	—	Running	—	146
8	6	-2	Carl Edwards		90	—	Running	—	142
9	1	-8	Jeff Gordon		90	—	Running	51	148
10	16	+6	Greg Biffle		90	—	Running	—	134
11	13	+2	Kurt Busch	Dodge	90	—	Running	—	130
12	3	-9	Matt Kenseth		90	—	Running	—	127
13	15	+2	Ryan Newman	Dodge	90	—	Running	—	124
14	39	+25	Boris Said		90	—	Running	—	121
15	19	+4	Casey Mears		90	—	Running	—	118
16	11	-5	Clint Bowyer		90	—	Running	—	115
17	23	+6	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	90	—	Running	—	112
18	21	+3	J.J. Yeley		90	—	Running	—	109
19	31	+12	Paul Menard		90	—	Running	—	106
20	32	+12	Jeff Green		90	—	Running	—	103
21	25	+4	David Stremme	Dodge	90	—	Running	—	100
22	40	+18	Patrick Carpentier	Dodge	90	—	Running	7	102
23	34	+11	Johnny Sauter		90	—	Running	—	94
24	20	-4	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	90	—	Running	4	96
25	41	+16	P.J. Jones		90	—	Running	—	88
26	28	+2	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	90	—	Running	—	85
27	42	+15	Jeremy Mayfield		90	—	Running	2	87
28	24	-4	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	90	—	Running	—	79
29	37	+8	Dale Jarrett		90	—	Running	—	76
30	38	+8	Terry Labonte		90	—	Running	—	73
31	43	+12	Kenny Wallace		90	—	Running	—	70
32	22	-10	David Ragan		90	—	Running	—	67
33	30	-3	David Gilliland		90	—	Running	—	64
34	17	-17	Jamie McMurray		89	—	Running	6	66
35	35	—	Dave Blaney		89	—	Running	—	58
36	9	-27	Kevin Harvick		84	—	Running	—	55
37	10	-27	Regan Smith		82	—	Running	—	52
38	27	-11	Ricky Rudd		77	—	Running	—	49
39	18	-21	Juan Pablo Montoya	Dodge	72	—	DNF	—	46
40	4	-36	Jeff Burton		72	—	DNF	—	43
41	36	-5	Brian Vickers		69	—	DNF	—	40
42	14	-28	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		63	—	DNF	—	37
43	33	-10	Kyle Petty	Dodge	56	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 6 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.4 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Denny Hamlin	16.7	2	+14.7	Moderate
3	Jimmie Johnson	16.7	3	+13.7	Moderate
6	Martin Truex, Jr.	16.5	6	+10.5	Coinflip
7	Kyle Busch	13.0	7	+6.0	Coinflip
15	Casey Mears	16.7	15	+1.7	Moderate
18	J.J. Yeley	21.9	18	+3.9	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Tony Stewart: has 17 career starts at Watkins Glen International with a 9.6 avg finish (5 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Kyle Busch: was the model’s top pick based on 31 career starts at Watkins Glen International with a 13.5 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P7 on the day.
Denny Hamlin: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P17. Track history: 24 starts, 17.6 avg finish.

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