Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami

Homestead-Miami Speedway — November 18, 2007

Matt Kenseth

Winner

267

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Matt Kenseth won the 2007 Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami at Homestead-Miami Speedway on November 18, 2007, leading 214 of 267 laps. Kurt Busch finished second; Denny Hamlin rounded out the podium. The race featured 11 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, November 18, 2007

Track

Homestead-Miami Speedway

Season

2007

Winner

Matt Kenseth

Leaders

11 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	4	+3	Matt Kenseth		267	—	Running	214	195
2	5	+3	Kurt Busch	Dodge	267	—	Running	17	175
3	32	+29	Denny Hamlin		267	—	Running	19	170
4	11	+7	Jeff Gordon		267	—	Running	—	160
5	10	+5	Carl Edwards		267	—	Running	—	155
6	15	+9	Martin Truex, Jr.		267	—	Running	3	155
7	1	-6	Jimmie Johnson		267	—	Running	1	151
8	9	+1	Jeff Burton		267	—	Running	—	142
9	6	-3	Mark Martin		267	—	Running	—	138
10	7	-3	David Ragan		267	—	Running	1	139
11	30	+19	David Stremme	Dodge	267	—	Running	—	130
12	23	+11	Dave Blaney		267	—	Running	2	132
13	37	+24	Greg Biffle		267	—	Running	—	124
14	25	+11	Jamie McMurray		267	—	Running	1	126
15	33	+18	Juan Pablo Montoya	Dodge	267	—	Running	—	118
16	21	+5	Casey Mears		267	—	Running	1	120
17	26	+9	Dale Jarrett		266	—	Running	—	112
18	2	-16	Ryan Newman	Dodge	266	—	Running	7	114
19	8	-11	Kevin Harvick		266	—	Running	—	106
20	18	-2	Kyle Busch		266	—	Running	1	108
21	38	+17	Ricky Rudd		266	—	Running	—	100
22	27	+5	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	266	—	Running	—	97
23	36	+13	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	266	—	Running	—	94
24	3	-21	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	265	—	Running	—	91
25	35	+10	David Reutimann		265	—	Running	—	88
26	34	+8	Jeremy Mayfield		265	—	Running	—	85
27	41	+14	Robby Gordon		264	—	Running	—	82
28	43	+15	Bill Elliott		264	—	Running	—	79
29	42	+13	Tony Raines		264	—	Running	—	76
30	14	-16	Tony Stewart		264	—	Running	—	73
31	24	-7	J.J. Yeley		263	—	Running	—	70
32	12	-20	David Gilliland		263	—	Running	—	67
33	16	-17	Sterling Marlin		263	—	Running	—	64
34	40	+6	Kyle Petty	Dodge	263	—	Running	—	61
35	39	+4	Paul Menard		262	—	Running	—	58
36	13	-23	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		261	—	Running	—	55
37	29	-8	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	254	—	Running	—	52
38	31	-7	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	250	—	Running	—	49
39	19	-20	Clint Bowyer		242	—	Running	—	46
40	28	-12	Patrick Carpentier	Dodge	225	—	DNF	—	43
41	22	-19	Johnny Sauter		157	—	DNF	—	40
42	17	-25	Brian Vickers		154	—	DNF	—	37
43	20	-23	Johnny Benson		73	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 6 matched drivers, the model averaged 5.6 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Good

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
3	Denny Hamlin	8.2	3	+5.2	High Confidence
6	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	6	+9.4	Coinflip
7	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	7	+12.9	Moderate
16	Casey Mears	16.9	16	+0.9	Coinflip
20	Kyle Busch	17.0	20	-3.0	Coinflip
31	J.J. Yeley	28.8	31	-2.2	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Matt Kenseth: has 32 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 13.3 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 27 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 10.5 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P3 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P7 vs predicted P20. Track history: 23 starts, 15.2 avg finish.

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