Allstate 400 at the Brickyard

Indianapolis Motor Speedway — July 29, 2007

Tony Stewart

Winner

160

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Tony Stewart won the 2007 Allstate 400 at the Brickyard at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on July 29, 2007, leading 65 of 160 laps. Juan Pablo Montoya finished second; Jeff Gordon rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, July 29, 2007

Track

Indianapolis Motor Speedway

Season

2007

Winner

Tony Stewart

Leaders

6 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	14	+13	Tony Stewart		160	—	Running	65	195
2	2	—	Juan Pablo Montoya	Dodge	160	—	Running	—	170
3	21	+18	Jeff Gordon		160	—	Running	—	165
4	18	+14	Kyle Busch		160	—	Running	17	165
5	1	-4	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	160	—	Running	16	160
6	13	+7	Mark Martin		160	—	Running	—	150
7	20	+13	Kevin Harvick		160	—	Running	18	151
8	7	-1	Jeff Burton		160	—	Running	—	142
9	27	+18	Dave Blaney		160	—	Running	—	138
10	31	+21	Matt Kenseth		160	—	Running	—	134
11	6	-5	Kurt Busch	Dodge	160	—	Running	—	130
12	33	+21	Martin Truex, Jr.		160	—	Running	—	127
13	26	+13	Clint Bowyer		160	—	Running	—	124
14	40	+26	Ward Burton		160	—	Running	—	121
15	8	-7	Greg Biffle		160	—	Running	11	123
16	30	+14	David Ragan		160	—	Running	—	115
17	38	+21	David Gilliland		160	—	Running	—	112
18	35	+17	Carl Edwards		160	—	Running	—	109
19	29	+10	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	160	—	Running	—	106
20	28	+8	Paul Menard		160	—	Running	—	103
21	25	+4	Brian Vickers		160	—	Running	—	100
22	10	-12	Denny Hamlin		159	—	Running	—	97
23	32	+9	Bill Elliott		159	—	Running	—	94
24	37	+13	Ricky Rudd		159	—	Running	—	91
25	36	+11	Ken Schrader	Dodge	159	—	Running	—	88
26	12	-14	David Stremme	Dodge	158	—	Running	—	85
27	42	+15	Robby Gordon		157	—	Running	—	82
28	17	-11	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	155	—	Running	—	79
29	16	-13	Scott Riggs	Dodge	154	—	Running	—	76
30	43	+13	Terry Labonte		150	—	Running	—	73
31	22	-9	Scott Wimmer		145	—	Running	—	70
32	41	+9	Kyle Petty	Dodge	141	—	Running	—	67
33	15	-18	Jamie McMurray		139	—	Running	—	64
34	4	-30	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		136	—	Running	33	66
35	9	-26	Casey Mears		132	—	DNF	—	58
36	23	-13	J.J. Yeley		120	—	DNF	—	55
37	39	+2	Johnny Sauter		100	—	DNF	—	52
38	34	-4	David Reutimann		92	—	DNF	—	49
39	19	-20	Jimmie Johnson		59	—	DNF	—	46
40	5	-35	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	39	—	DNF	—	43
41	11	-30	Tony Raines		39	—	DNF	—	40
42	3	-39	Ryan Newman	Dodge	20	—	DNF	—	37
43	24	-19	Jeff Green		13	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 6 matched drivers, the model averaged 12.4 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
4	Kyle Busch	17.0	4	+13.0	Coinflip
12	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	12	+3.4	Coinflip
22	Denny Hamlin	8.2	22	-13.8	High Confidence
35	Casey Mears	16.9	35	-18.1	Coinflip
36	J.J. Yeley	28.8	36	-7.2	High Confidence
39	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	39	-19.1	Moderate

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Tony Stewart: has 17 career starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway with a 10.2 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 19 career starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway with a 14.5 avg finish, finishing P22 on the day.
Kyle Busch: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P17. Track history: 23 starts, 10.3 avg finish.

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