NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series at Chicago

Chicagoland Speedway — July 15, 2007

Tony Stewart

Winner

267

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Tony Stewart won the 2007 NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series at Chicago at Chicagoland Speedway on July 15, 2007, leading 108 of 267 laps. Matt Kenseth finished second; Carl Edwards rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, July 15, 2007

Track

Chicagoland Speedway

Season

2007

Winner

Tony Stewart

Leaders

9 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	19	+18	Tony Stewart		267	—	Running	108	195
2	10	+8	Matt Kenseth		267	—	Running	1	175
3	25	+22	Carl Edwards		267	—	Running	—	165
4	14	+10	Kevin Harvick		267	—	Running	54	165
5	1	-4	Casey Mears		267	—	Running	5	160
6	35	+29	Kurt Busch	Dodge	267	—	Running	2	155
7	23	+16	Jeff Burton		267	—	Running	—	146
8	3	-5	Ryan Newman	Dodge	267	—	Running	—	142
9	11	+2	Jeff Gordon		267	—	Running	—	138
10	7	-3	Clint Bowyer		267	—	Running	1	139
11	33	+22	Greg Biffle		267	—	Running	—	130
12	22	+10	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	267	—	Running	—	127
13	6	-7	Kyle Busch		267	—	Running	—	124
14	4	-10	Mark Martin		267	—	Running	—	121
15	30	+15	Juan Pablo Montoya	Dodge	267	—	Running	—	118
16	42	+26	David Gilliland		267	—	Running	—	115
17	13	-4	Denny Hamlin		267	—	Running	—	112
18	9	-9	John Andretti	Dodge	267	—	Running	—	109
19	5	-14	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		267	—	Running	2	111
20	12	-8	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	266	—	Running	—	103
21	41	+20	Ricky Rudd		266	—	Running	—	100
22	18	-4	Johnny Sauter		266	—	Running	—	97
23	37	+14	Sterling Marlin		266	—	Running	—	94
24	40	+16	Tony Raines		265	—	Running	—	91
25	32	+7	David Ragan		265	—	Running	—	88
26	20	-6	Jeremy Mayfield		265	—	Running	—	85
27	29	+2	Jeff Green		265	—	Running	—	82
28	17	-11	Bill Elliott		265	—	Running	—	79
29	27	-2	Joe Nemechek		264	—	Running	—	76
30	28	-2	Michael Waltrip		264	—	Running	—	73
31	26	-5	Chad Chaffin	Dodge	263	—	Running	—	70
32	24	-8	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	262	—	Running	—	67
33	31	-2	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	260	—	Running	—	64
34	38	+4	David Stremme	Dodge	257	—	Running	—	61
35	36	+1	J.J. Yeley		243	—	Running	—	58
36	39	+3	Robby Gordon		225	—	DNF	—	55
37	8	-29	Jimmie Johnson		222	—	DNF	82	57
38	34	-4	Jamie McMurray		214	—	DNF	—	49
39	2	-37	Martin Truex, Jr.		211	—	DNF	12	51
40	15	-25	Dave Blaney		199	—	DNF	—	43
41	43	+2	Ward Burton		197	—	DNF	—	40
42	16	-26	Paul Menard		132	—	DNF	—	37
43	21	-22	David Reutimann		43	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 6 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.9 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
5	Casey Mears	16.9	5	+11.9	Coinflip
13	Kyle Busch	17.0	13	+4.0	Coinflip
17	Denny Hamlin	8.2	17	-8.8	High Confidence
35	J.J. Yeley	28.8	35	-6.2	High Confidence
37	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	37	-17.1	Moderate
39	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	39	-23.6	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Tony Stewart: has 18 career starts at Chicagoland Speedway with a 10.4 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 19 career starts at Chicagoland Speedway with a 14.4 avg finish (1 win), finishing P17 on the day.
Casey Mears: was the biggest surprise, finishing P5 vs predicted P17. Track history: 18 starts, 23.3 avg finish.

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