NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series at Talladega

Talladega Superspeedway — April 29, 2007

Jeff Gordon

Winner

192

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jeff Gordon won the 2007 NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series at Talladega at Talladega Superspeedway on April 29, 2007, leading 71 of 192 laps. Jimmie Johnson finished second; Kurt Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 20 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, April 29, 2007

Track

Talladega Superspeedway

Season

2007

Winner

Jeff Gordon

Leaders

20 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	1	—	Jeff Gordon		192	—	Running	71	195
2	8	+6	Jimmie Johnson		192	—	Running	12	175
3	26	+23	Kurt Busch	Dodge	192	—	Running	7	170
4	2	-2	David Gilliland		192	—	Running	—	160
5	25	+20	Jamie McMurray		192	—	Running	2	160
6	41	+35	Kevin Harvick		192	—	Running	—	150
7	36	+29	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		192	—	Running	2	151
8	20	+12	David Stremme	Dodge	192	—	Running	1	147
9	28	+19	Ryan Newman	Dodge	192	—	Running	—	138
10	37	+27	Martin Truex, Jr.		192	—	Running	—	134
11	9	-2	Scott Riggs	Dodge	192	—	Running	—	130
12	30	+18	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	192	—	Running	5	132
13	34	+21	Jeff Green		192	—	Running	3	129
14	17	+3	Matt Kenseth		192	—	Running	3	126
15	39	+24	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	192	—	Running	2	123
16	4	-12	Sterling Marlin		192	—	Running	16	120
17	10	-7	David Ragan		192	—	Running	1	117
18	23	+5	Kyle Petty	Dodge	192	—	Running	—	109
19	31	+12	J.J. Yeley		192	—	Running	—	106
20	35	+15	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	192	—	Running	—	103
21	3	-18	Denny Hamlin		192	—	Running	48	105
22	27	+5	Tony Raines		192	—	Running	—	97
23	18	-5	Jeremy Mayfield		192	—	Running	—	94
24	22	-2	Regan Smith		192	—	Running	1	96
25	29	+4	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	192	—	Running	—	88
26	6	-20	Kenny Wallace		192	—	Running	2	90
27	11	-16	Boris Said		191	—	Running	1	87
28	32	+4	Tony Stewart		190	—	Running	7	84
29	12	-17	Greg Biffle		190	—	Running	1	81
30	21	-9	Johnny Sauter		190	—	Running	—	73
31	24	-7	Juan Pablo Montoya	Dodge	187	—	Running	—	70
32	14	-18	David Reutimann		184	—	Running	—	67
33	5	-28	Ricky Rudd		155	—	DNF	—	64
34	42	+8	Jeff Burton		151	—	DNF	2	66
35	40	+5	Clint Bowyer		147	—	DNF	—	58
36	15	-21	Ward Burton		144	—	DNF	—	55
37	13	-24	Kyle Busch		130	—	DNF	—	52
38	33	-5	Joe Nemechek		130	—	DNF	—	49
39	7	-32	Casey Mears		124	—	DNF	5	51
40	43	+3	Dale Jarrett		38	—	DNF	—	43
41	38	-3	Robby Gordon		33	—	DNF	—	40
42	16	-26	Carl Edwards		27	—	DNF	—	37
43	19	-24	Paul Menard		22	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 6 matched drivers, the model averaged 13.4 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Jimmie Johnson	18.9	2	+16.9	Coinflip
10	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.1	10	+10.1	Coinflip
19	J.J. Yeley	25.2	19	+6.2	High Confidence
21	Denny Hamlin	16.0	21	-5.0	Coinflip
37	Kyle Busch	15.1	37	-21.9	Coinflip
39	Casey Mears	18.5	39	-20.5	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jeff Gordon: has 47 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 16.8 avg finish (6 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Kyle Busch: was the model’s top pick based on 54 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 18.1 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P37 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P19. Track history: 39 starts, 18.5 avg finish.

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