Subway 500 at Martinsville

Martinsville Speedway — October 21, 2007

Jimmie Johnson

Winner

506

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jimmie Johnson won the 2007 Subway 500 at Martinsville at Martinsville Speedway on October 21, 2007, leading 147 of 506 laps. Ryan Newman finished second; Jeff Gordon rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, October 21, 2007

Track

Martinsville Speedway

Season

2007

Winner

Jimmie Johnson

Leaders

7 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	4	+3	Jimmie Johnson		506	—	Running	147	190
2	12	+10	Ryan Newman	Dodge	506	—	Running	—	170
3	1	-2	Jeff Gordon		506	—	Running	168	175
4	6	+2	Kyle Busch		506	—	Running	106	165
5	24	+19	Matt Kenseth		506	—	Running	—	155
6	30	+24	Denny Hamlin		506	—	Running	—	150
7	37	+30	Greg Biffle		506	—	Running	—	146
8	26	+18	Juan Pablo Montoya	Dodge	506	—	Running	9	147
9	21	+12	Clint Bowyer		506	—	Running	—	138
10	3	-7	Kevin Harvick		506	—	Running	—	134
11	20	+9	Carl Edwards		506	—	Running	—	130
12	18	+6	Jeff Burton		506	—	Running	51	132
13	34	+21	Tony Stewart		506	—	Running	—	124
14	10	-4	Tony Raines		506	—	Running	—	121
15	5	-10	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	506	—	Running	—	118
16	32	+16	Scott Riggs	Dodge	506	—	Running	—	115
17	19	+2	David Reutimann		506	—	Running	—	112
18	29	+11	Michael Waltrip		506	—	Running	—	109
19	2	-17	Martin Truex, Jr.		506	—	Running	—	106
20	22	+2	Casey Mears		506	—	Running	—	103
21	42	+21	Kyle Petty	Dodge	506	—	Running	—	100
22	16	-6	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	506	—	Running	—	97
23	7	-16	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		506	—	Running	24	99
24	35	+11	Paul Menard		505	—	Running	—	91
25	40	+15	David Gilliland		505	—	Running	—	88
26	41	+15	David Ragan		505	—	Running	—	85
27	23	-4	Ricky Rudd		504	—	Running	—	82
28	31	+3	Jeff Green		503	—	Running	1	84
29	13	-16	Johnny Sauter		503	—	Running	—	76
30	33	+3	Dale Jarrett		503	—	Running	—	73
31	11	-20	Kurt Busch	Dodge	501	—	Running	—	70
32	9	-23	Jamie McMurray		500	—	Running	—	67
33	15	-18	John Andretti	Dodge	492	—	Running	—	64
34	43	+9	Bill Elliott		483	—	Running	—	61
35	25	-10	A.J. Allmendinger		474	—	Running	—	58
36	17	-19	Dave Blaney		439	—	Running	—	55
37	38	+1	David Stremme	Dodge	410	—	DNF	—	52
38	36	-2	Ward Burton		406	—	DNF	—	49
39	39	—	Robby Gordon		390	—	DNF	—	46
40	14	-26	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	371	—	DNF	—	43
41	28	-13	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	259	—	DNF	—	40
42	8	-34	J.J. Yeley		258	—	DNF	—	37
43	27	-16	Aric Almirola		111	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 7 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.6 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	1	+16.7	Moderate
4	Kyle Busch	15.6	4	+11.6	Coinflip
6	Denny Hamlin	6.8	6	+0.8	High Confidence
19	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	19	-5.2	Coinflip
20	Casey Mears	18.0	20	-2.0	Moderate
35	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	35	-16.7	Moderate
42	J.J. Yeley	28.1	42	-13.9	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jimmie Johnson: has 36 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 8.7 avg finish (9 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 47 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 9.2 avg finish (8 wins), finishing P6 on the day.

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