Daytona 500

Daytona International Speedway — February 17, 2008

Ryan Newman

Winner

200

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Ryan Newman won the 2008 Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway on February 17, 2008, leading 8 of 200 laps. Kurt Busch finished second; Tony Stewart rounded out the podium. The race featured 16 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, February 17, 2008

Track

Daytona International Speedway

Season

2008

Winner

Ryan Newman

Leaders

16 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	7	+6	Ryan Newman	Dodge	200	—	Running	8	190
2	43	+41	Kurt Busch	Dodge	200	—	Running	9	175
3	6	+3	Tony Stewart		200	—	Running	16	170
4	24	+20	Kyle Busch		200	—	Running	86	170
5	5	—	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	200	—	Running	5	160
6	35	+29	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	150
7	10	+3	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	200	—	Running	1	151
8	26	+18	Robby Gordon	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	142
9	3	-6	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		200	—	Running	12	143
10	18	+8	Greg Biffle		200	—	Running	7	139
11	13	+2	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	130
12	23	+11	Brian Vickers		200	—	Running	—	127
13	36	+23	Jeff Burton		200	—	Running	9	129
14	16	+2	Kevin Harvick		200	—	Running	—	121
15	19	+4	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	118
16	20	+4	Dale Jarrett		200	—	Running	—	115
17	4	-13	Denny Hamlin		200	—	Running	32	117
18	42	+24	David Reutimann		200	—	Running	—	109
19	11	-8	Carl Edwards		200	—	Running	—	106
20	25	+5	Martin Truex, Jr.		200	—	Running	—	103
21	27	+6	Scott Riggs		200	—	Running	—	100
22	21	-1	Paul Menard		200	—	Running	—	97
23	33	+10	Jeremy Mayfield		200	—	Running	—	94
24	31	+7	Clint Bowyer		200	—	Running	4	96
25	37	+12	J.J. Yeley		200	—	Running	—	88
26	38	+12	Jamie McMurray		200	—	Running	—	85
27	1	-26	Jimmie Johnson		200	—	Running	1	87
28	32	+4	David Gilliland		200	—	Running	—	79
29	2	-27	Michael Waltrip		200	—	Running	3	81
30	30	—	Travis Kvapil		200	—	Running	—	73
31	12	-19	Mark Martin		200	—	Running	—	70
32	15	-17	Juan Pablo Montoya	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	67
33	40	+7	Dario Franchitti	Dodge	199	—	Running	—	64
34	39	+5	Kyle Petty	Dodge	197	—	Running	—	61
35	9	-26	Casey Mears		194	—	Running	—	58
36	28	-8	Matt Kenseth		194	—	Running	1	60
37	29	-8	Regan Smith		194	—	Running	—	52
38	34	-4	Dave Blaney		189	—	Running	1	54
39	8	-31	Jeff Gordon		186	—	Running	5	51
40	22	-18	John Andretti		184	—	Running	—	43
41	41	—	Joe Nemechek		171	—	Running	—	40
42	14	-28	David Ragan		161	—	DNF	—	37
43	17	-26	Kenny Wallace		141	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 8 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.3 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
4	Kyle Busch	16.0	4	+12.0	Coinflip
14	Kevin Harvick	20.0	14	+6.0	Coinflip
17	Denny Hamlin	17.4	17	+0.4	Coinflip
20	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.1	20	+0.1	Coinflip
25	J.J. Yeley	24.0	25	-1.0	High Confidence
27	Jimmie Johnson	19.4	27	-7.6	Coinflip
35	Casey Mears	19.4	35	-15.6	Coinflip
42	David Ragan	18.5	42	-23.5	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Ryan Newman: has 39 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 18.2 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Kyle Busch: was the model’s top pick based on 69 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 17.3 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P4 on the day.
Kyle Busch: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P16. Track history: 69 starts, 17.3 avg finish.

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