NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Chicago

Chicagoland Speedway — July 12, 2008

Kyle Busch

Winner

267

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kyle Busch won the 2008 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Chicago at Chicagoland Speedway on July 12, 2008, leading 165 of 267 laps. Jimmie Johnson finished second; Kevin Harvick rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Saturday, July 12, 2008

Track

Chicagoland Speedway

Season

2008

Winner

Kyle Busch

Leaders

10 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	1	—	Kyle Busch		267	—	Running	165	195
2	5	+3	Jimmie Johnson		267	—	Running	15	175
3	13	+10	Kevin Harvick		267	—	Running	—	165
4	11	+7	Greg Biffle		267	—	Running	43	165
5	12	+7	Tony Stewart		267	—	Running	11	160
6	15	+9	Brian Vickers		267	—	Running	2	155
7	9	+2	Matt Kenseth		267	—	Running	7	151
8	14	+6	David Ragan		267	—	Running	—	142
9	19	+10	Martin Truex, Jr.		267	—	Running	2	143
10	17	+7	Ryan Newman	Dodge	267	—	Running	—	134
11	6	-5	Jeff Gordon		267	—	Running	6	135
12	26	+14	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	267	—	Running	—	127
13	39	+26	A.J. Allmendinger		267	—	Running	—	124
14	29	+15	David Reutimann		267	—	Running	—	121
15	8	-7	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	267	—	Running	—	118
16	2	-14	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		267	—	Running	—	115
17	16	-1	Mark Martin		267	—	Running	—	112
18	22	+4	Juan Pablo Montoya	Dodge	267	—	Running	—	109
19	3	-16	Jeff Burton		267	—	Running	—	106
20	38	+18	Scott Riggs		267	—	Running	—	103
21	24	+3	Jamie McMurray		267	—	Running	—	100
22	10	-12	Clint Bowyer		267	—	Running	—	97
23	30	+7	Dave Blaney		267	—	Running	—	94
24	40	+16	J.J. Yeley		267	—	Running	—	91
25	31	+6	Robby Gordon	Dodge	267	—	Running	—	88
26	27	+1	Paul Menard		267	—	Running	—	85
27	43	+16	Jason Leffler		267	—	Running	—	82
28	18	-10	Kurt Busch	Dodge	267	—	Running	1	84
29	20	-9	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	267	—	Running	—	76
30	42	+12	Patrick Carpentier	Dodge	266	—	Running	—	73
31	32	+1	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	266	—	Running	—	70
32	4	-28	Carl Edwards		266	—	Running	15	72
33	25	-8	Casey Mears		266	—	Running	—	64
34	33	-1	Regan Smith		266	—	Running	—	61
35	37	+2	Bill Elliott		266	—	Running	—	58
36	28	-8	Michael Waltrip		265	—	Running	—	55
37	35	-2	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	264	—	Running	—	52
38	36	-2	Terry Labonte	Dodge	264	—	Running	—	49
39	41	+2	Joe Nemechek		264	—	Running	—	46
40	7	-33	Denny Hamlin		263	—	Running	—	43
41	21	-20	Travis Kvapil		261	—	Running	—	40
42	23	-19	David Gilliland		259	—	Running	—	37
43	34	-9	Michael McDowell		259	—	Running	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 8 matched drivers, the model averaged 15.5 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Kyle Busch	16.9	1	+15.9	Coinflip
2	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	2	+17.9	Moderate
9	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	9	+6.4	Coinflip
13	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	13	+5.3	Moderate
24	J.J. Yeley	28.2	24	+4.2	High Confidence
33	Casey Mears	17.1	33	-15.9	Coinflip
40	Denny Hamlin	8.2	40	-31.8	High Confidence
43	Michael McDowell	16.2	43	-26.8	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kyle Busch: has 32 career starts at Chicagoland Speedway with a 9.5 avg finish (10 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 19 career starts at Chicagoland Speedway with a 14.4 avg finish (1 win), finishing P40 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P20. Track history: 20 starts, 9.3 avg finish.

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