NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Pocono pres. by Cheez-It

Pocono Raceway — August 3, 2008

Carl Edwards

Winner

200

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Carl Edwards won the 2008 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Pocono pres. by Cheez-It at Pocono Raceway on August 3, 2008, leading 53 of 200 laps. Tony Stewart finished second; Jimmie Johnson rounded out the podium. The race featured 13 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, August 3, 2008

Track

Pocono Raceway

Season

2008

Winner

Carl Edwards

Leaders

13 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	15	+14	Carl Edwards		200	—	Running	53	190
2	20	+18	Tony Stewart		200	—	Running	—	170
3	1	-2	Jimmie Johnson		200	—	Running	34	170
4	21	+17	Kevin Harvick		200	—	Running	—	160
5	16	+11	David Ragan		200	—	Running	1	160
6	30	+24	Clint Bowyer		200	—	Running	—	150
7	7	—	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	200	—	Running	41	151
8	2	-6	Mark Martin		200	—	Running	55	152
9	41	+32	Jamie McMurray		200	—	Running	2	143
10	4	-6	Jeff Gordon		200	—	Running	—	134
11	5	-6	Matt Kenseth		200	—	Running	3	135
12	12	—	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		200	—	Running	1	132
13	9	-4	Greg Biffle		200	—	Running	2	129
14	6	-8	Ryan Newman	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	121
15	17	+2	Martin Truex, Jr.		200	—	Running	—	118
16	19	+3	Travis Kvapil		200	—	Running	—	115
17	34	+17	Chad McCumbee	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	112
18	18	—	Tony Raines		200	—	Running	—	109
19	31	+12	A.J. Allmendinger		200	—	Running	—	106
20	37	+17	Bill Elliott		200	—	Running	1	108
21	39	+18	Jeff Burton		200	—	Running	—	100
22	33	+11	Casey Mears		200	—	Running	—	97
23	14	-9	Denny Hamlin		200	—	Running	—	94
24	35	+11	Michael McDowell		200	—	Running	—	91
25	36	+11	Regan Smith		200	—	Running	—	88
26	26	—	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	85
27	29	+2	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	82
28	8	-20	Brian Vickers		199	—	Running	—	79
29	40	+11	Scott Riggs		199	—	Running	1	81
30	28	-2	David Reutimann		199	—	Running	—	73
31	24	-7	Dave Blaney		199	—	Running	—	70
32	25	-7	Terry Labonte	Dodge	199	—	Running	—	67
33	11	-22	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	199	—	Running	—	64
34	3	-31	David Gilliland		199	—	Running	—	61
35	32	-3	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	198	—	Running	—	58
36	27	-9	Kyle Busch		199	—	Running	—	55
37	38	+1	Robby Gordon	Dodge	198	—	Running	—	52
38	10	-28	Kurt Busch	Dodge	198	—	Running	5	54
39	43	+4	J.J. Yeley		196	—	Running	—	46
40	13	-27	Juan Pablo Montoya	Dodge	146	—	DNF	—	43
41	23	-18	Joe Nemechek		138	—	DNF	—	40
42	22	-20	Paul Menard		137	—	DNF	—	37
43	42	-1	Michael Waltrip		24	—	DNF	1	39

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.1 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
3	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	3	+16.9	Moderate
4	Kevin Harvick	11.2	4	+7.2	Coinflip
15	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	15	+0.4	Coinflip
19	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	19	-0.7	Moderate
22	Casey Mears	17.1	22	-4.9	Coinflip
23	Denny Hamlin	8.2	23	-14.8	High Confidence
24	Michael McDowell	16.7	24	-7.3	Coinflip
36	Kyle Busch	17.0	36	-19.0	Coinflip
39	J.J. Yeley	28.5	39	-10.5	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Carl Edwards: has 24 career starts at Pocono Raceway with a 14.6 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 38 career starts at Pocono Raceway with a 10.5 avg finish (7 wins), finishing P23 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P20. Track history: 37 starts, 12.4 avg finish.

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