NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Pocono

Pocono Raceway — June 7, 2009

Tony Stewart

Winner

200

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Tony Stewart won the 2009 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Pocono at Pocono Raceway on June 7, 2009, leading 39 of 200 laps. Carl Edwards finished second; David Reutimann rounded out the podium. The race featured 12 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, June 7, 2009

Track

Pocono Raceway

Season

2009

Winner

Tony Stewart

Leaders

12 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	1	—	Tony Stewart		200	—	Running	39	190
2	11	+9	Carl Edwards		200	—	Running	103	180
3	13	+10	David Reutimann		200	—	Running	—	165
4	2	-2	Jeff Gordon		200	—	Running	9	165
5	5	—	Ryan Newman		200	—	Running	1	160
6	20	+14	Marcos Ambrose		200	—	Running	—	150
7	3	-4	Jimmie Johnson		200	—	Running	31	151
8	15	+7	Juan Pablo Montoya		200	—	Running	—	142
9	10	+1	Jeff Burton		200	—	Running	—	138
10	26	+16	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	134
11	9	-2	Greg Biffle		200	—	Running	4	135
12	16	+4	Clint Bowyer		200	—	Running	—	127
13	22	+9	Jamie McMurray		200	—	Running	1	129
14	21	+7	Casey Mears		200	—	Running	1	126
15	14	-1	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	118
16	8	-8	Matt Kenseth		200	—	Running	6	120
17	32	+15	Michael Waltrip		200	—	Running	—	112
18	19	+1	Martin Truex, Jr.		200	—	Running	—	109
19	12	-7	Mark Martin		200	—	Running	1	111
20	25	+5	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	103
21	17	-4	Brian Vickers		200	—	Running	—	100
22	6	-16	Kyle Busch		200	—	Running	—	97
23	23	—	Joey Logano		200	—	Running	—	94
24	24	—	Kevin Harvick		200	—	Running	—	91
25	27	+2	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	200	—	Running	2	93
26	31	+5	David Ragan		200	—	Running	—	85
27	18	-9	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		200	—	Running	—	82
28	28	—	Bobby Labonte		200	—	Running	—	79
29	33	+4	Paul Menard		200	—	Running	—	76
30	30	—	A.J. Allmendinger	Dodge	199	—	Running	—	73
31	34	+3	Robby Gordon		199	—	Running	—	70
32	37	+5	Scott Speed		199	—	Running	—	67
33	42	+9	Regan Smith		198	—	Running	—	64
34	29	-5	David Stremme	Dodge	198	—	Running	—	61
35	35	—	John Andretti		198	—	Running	—	58
36	43	+7	Dexter Bean	Dodge	196	—	Running	—	55
37	4	-33	Kurt Busch	Dodge	182	—	Running	2	57
38	7	-31	Denny Hamlin		178	—	Running	—	49
39	36	-3	Sterling Marlin	Dodge	56	—	DNF	—	46
40	41	+1	Dave Blaney		37	—	DNF	—	43
41	39	-2	Joe Nemechek		36	—	DNF	—	40
42	38	-4	David Gilliland		34	—	DNF	—	37
43	40	-3	Patrick Carpentier		32	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 7 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.5 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
7	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	7	+12.9	Moderate
14	Casey Mears	16.9	14	+2.9	Coinflip
18	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	18	-2.6	Coinflip
22	Kyle Busch	17.0	22	-5.0	Coinflip
23	Joey Logano	14.7	23	-8.3	Coinflip
30	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	30	-11.7	Moderate
38	Denny Hamlin	8.2	38	-29.8	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Tony Stewart: has 36 career starts at Pocono Raceway with a 12.4 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 38 career starts at Pocono Raceway with a 10.5 avg finish (7 wins), finishing P38 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P7 vs predicted P20. Track history: 37 starts, 12.4 avg finish.

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