Brickyard 400 pres. by Golden Corral

Indianapolis Motor Speedway — July 26, 2009

Jimmie Johnson

Winner

160

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jimmie Johnson won the 2009 Brickyard 400 pres. by Golden Corral at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on July 26, 2009, leading 24 of 160 laps. Mark Martin finished second; Tony Stewart rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, July 26, 2009

Track

Indianapolis Motor Speedway

Season

2009

Winner

Jimmie Johnson

Leaders

7 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	16	+15	Jimmie Johnson		160	—	Running	24	190
2	1	-1	Mark Martin		160	—	Running	14	175
3	7	+4	Tony Stewart		160	—	Running	2	170
4	12	+8	Greg Biffle		160	—	Running	—	160
5	6	+1	Brian Vickers		160	—	Running	2	160
6	19	+13	Kevin Harvick		160	—	Running	—	150
7	8	+1	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	160	—	Running	—	146
8	5	-3	David Reutimann		160	—	Running	—	142
9	22	+13	Jeff Gordon		160	—	Running	—	138
10	25	+15	Matt Kenseth		160	—	Running	—	134
11	2	-9	Juan Pablo Montoya		160	—	Running	116	140
12	18	+6	Joey Logano		160	—	Running	—	127
13	9	-4	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	160	—	Running	—	124
14	17	+3	Ryan Newman		160	—	Running	—	121
15	41	+26	Carl Edwards		160	—	Running	—	118
16	21	+5	David Stremme	Dodge	160	—	Running	—	115
17	13	-4	Martin Truex, Jr.		160	—	Running	—	112
18	10	-8	Clint Bowyer		160	—	Running	—	109
19	27	+8	Casey Mears		160	—	Running	1	111
20	33	+13	A.J. Allmendinger	Dodge	160	—	Running	—	103
21	24	+3	Jamie McMurray		160	—	Running	—	100
22	11	-11	Marcos Ambrose		160	—	Running	—	97
23	31	+8	Bobby Labonte		160	—	Running	—	94
24	29	+5	David Ragan		160	—	Running	—	91
25	38	+13	Jeff Burton		159	—	Running	—	88
26	4	-22	Bill Elliott		159	—	Running	—	85
27	40	+13	Kurt Busch	Dodge	159	—	Running	—	82
28	32	+4	Robby Gordon		159	—	Running	—	79
29	28	-1	Paul Menard		158	—	Running	—	76
30	37	+7	David Gilliland		158	—	Running	1	78
31	26	-5	Scott Speed		157	—	Running	—	70
32	35	+3	John Andretti		156	—	Running	—	67
33	43	+10	Terry Labonte		154	—	Running	—	64
34	14	-20	Denny Hamlin		144	—	Running	—	61
35	23	-12	Michael Waltrip		139	—	Running	—	58
36	3	-33	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		127	—	DNF	—	55
37	15	-22	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	118	—	DNF	—	52
38	20	-18	Kyle Busch		112	—	DNF	—	49
39	36	-3	Regan Smith		108	—	DNF	—	46
40	42	+2	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	45	—	DNF	—	43
41	39	-2	Mike Skinner		35	—	DNF	—	40
42	34	-8	Dave Blaney		23	—	DNF	—	37
43	30	-13	Joe Nemechek		21	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 7 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.5 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	1	+18.9	Moderate
12	Joey Logano	14.7	12	+2.7	Coinflip
17	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	17	-1.6	Coinflip
19	Casey Mears	16.9	19	-2.1	Coinflip
20	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	20	-1.7	Moderate
34	Denny Hamlin	8.2	34	-25.8	High Confidence
38	Kyle Busch	17.0	38	-21.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jimmie Johnson: has 16 career starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway with a 14.5 avg finish (4 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 19 career starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway with a 14.5 avg finish, finishing P34 on the day.

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