NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Chicago

Chicagoland Speedway — July 11, 2009

Mark Martin

Winner

267

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Mark Martin won the 2009 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Chicago at Chicagoland Speedway on July 11, 2009, leading 195 of 267 laps. Jeff Gordon finished second; Kasey Kahne rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Saturday, July 11, 2009

Track

Chicagoland Speedway

Season

2009

Winner

Mark Martin

Leaders

6 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	14	+13	Mark Martin		267	—	Running	195	195
2	7	+5	Jeff Gordon		267	—	Running	—	170
3	15	+12	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	267	—	Running	2	170
4	32	+28	Tony Stewart		267	—	Running	1	165
5	4	-1	Denny Hamlin		267	—	Running	—	155
6	12	+6	Ryan Newman		267	—	Running	—	150
7	1	-6	Brian Vickers		267	—	Running	10	151
8	3	-5	Jimmie Johnson		267	—	Running	58	147
9	5	-4	Clint Bowyer		267	—	Running	—	138
10	19	+9	Juan Pablo Montoya		267	—	Running	—	134
11	10	-1	Marcos Ambrose		267	—	Running	—	130
12	9	-3	David Reutimann		267	—	Running	—	127
13	20	+7	A.J. Allmendinger	Dodge	267	—	Running	—	124
14	25	+11	Carl Edwards		267	—	Running	—	121
15	13	-2	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		267	—	Running	—	118
16	21	+5	Martin Truex, Jr.		267	—	Running	—	115
17	22	+5	Kurt Busch	Dodge	267	—	Running	—	112
18	24	+6	Joey Logano		267	—	Running	—	109
19	28	+9	Kevin Harvick		267	—	Running	—	106
20	37	+17	Michael Waltrip		266	—	Running	—	103
21	42	+21	Bobby Labonte		266	—	Running	—	100
22	30	+8	Jamie McMurray		266	—	Running	—	97
23	33	+10	Matt Kenseth		266	—	Running	—	94
24	11	-13	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	265	—	Running	—	91
25	17	-8	David Ragan		265	—	Running	—	88
26	36	+10	David Stremme	Dodge	265	—	Running	—	85
27	34	+7	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	265	—	Running	1	87
28	38	+10	Casey Mears		265	—	Running	—	79
29	8	-21	Bill Elliott		265	—	Running	—	76
30	40	+10	John Andretti		265	—	Running	—	73
31	35	+4	Greg Biffle		265	—	Running	—	70
32	29	-3	Brad Keselowski		265	—	Running	—	67
33	6	-27	Kyle Busch		257	—	Running	—	64
34	41	+7	Robby Gordon		237	—	Running	—	61
35	27	-8	Paul Menard		226	—	DNF	—	58
36	2	-34	Scott Speed		226	—	DNF	—	55
37	23	-14	Jeff Burton		224	—	DNF	—	52
38	16	-22	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	217	—	DNF	—	49
39	39	—	Mike Skinner		60	—	DNF	—	46
40	26	-14	Mike Bliss	Dodge	58	—	DNF	—	43
41	31	-10	Joe Nemechek		30	—	DNF	—	40
42	43	+1	David Gilliland		11	—	DNF	—	37
43	18	-25	Dave Blaney		10	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 8 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.0 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
5	Denny Hamlin	8.2	5	+3.2	High Confidence
8	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	8	+11.9	Moderate
13	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	13	+5.3	Moderate
16	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	16	-0.6	Coinflip
18	Joey Logano	14.7	18	-3.3	Coinflip
28	Casey Mears	16.9	28	-11.1	Coinflip
32	Brad Keselowski	11.2	32	-20.8	Moderate
33	Kyle Busch	17.0	33	-16.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Mark Martin: has 14 career starts at Chicagoland Speedway with a 12.4 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 19 career starts at Chicagoland Speedway with a 14.4 avg finish (1 win), finishing P5 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P8 vs predicted P20. Track history: 20 starts, 9.3 avg finish.

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