NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Las Vegas

Las Vegas Motor Speedway — March 1, 2009

Kyle Busch

Winner

285

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kyle Busch won the 2009 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Las Vegas at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on March 1, 2009, leading 51 of 285 laps. Clint Bowyer finished second; Jeff Burton rounded out the podium. The race featured 12 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, March 1, 2009

Track

Las Vegas Motor Speedway

Season

2009

Winner

Kyle Busch

Leaders

12 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	1	—	Kyle Busch		285	—	Running	51	190
2	37	+35	Clint Bowyer		285	—	Running	9	175
3	14	+11	Jeff Burton		285	—	Running	61	170
4	4	—	David Reutimann		285	—	Running	—	160
5	17	+12	Bobby Labonte		285	—	Running	—	155
6	28	+22	Jeff Gordon		285	—	Running	17	155
7	24	+17	Greg Biffle		285	—	Running	40	151
8	21	+13	Brian Vickers		285	—	Running	—	142
9	38	+29	Jamie McMurray		285	—	Running	—	138
10	31	+21	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		285	—	Running	—	134
11	7	-4	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	285	—	Running	1	135
12	9	-3	Kevin Harvick		285	—	Running	9	132
13	20	+7	Joey Logano		285	—	Running	1	129
14	30	+16	David Gilliland		285	—	Running	—	121
15	32	+17	Robby Gordon		285	—	Running	1	123
16	12	-4	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	285	—	Running	—	115
17	16	-1	Carl Edwards		285	—	Running	2	117
18	11	-7	David Stremme	Dodge	284	—	Running	—	109
19	18	-1	Regan Smith		284	—	Running	—	106
20	5	-15	Marcos Ambrose		284	—	Running	—	103
21	42	+21	Scott Speed		284	—	Running	—	100
22	34	+12	Denny Hamlin		284	—	Running	—	97
23	2	-21	Kurt Busch	Dodge	284	—	Running	1	99
24	3	-21	Jimmie Johnson		284	—	Running	92	101
25	6	-19	Ryan Newman		283	—	Running	—	88
26	10	-16	Tony Stewart		283	—	Running	—	85
27	15	-12	Michael Waltrip		283	—	Running	—	82
28	29	+1	John Andretti		283	—	Running	—	79
29	33	+4	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	283	—	Running	—	76
30	41	+11	Casey Mears		282	—	Running	—	73
31	23	-8	Juan Pablo Montoya		281	—	Running	—	70
32	25	-7	Martin Truex, Jr.		281	—	Running	—	67
33	19	-14	A.J. Allmendinger	Dodge	281	—	Running	—	64
34	39	+5	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	278	—	Running	—	61
35	36	+1	Paul Menard		269	—	Running	—	58
36	26	-10	Max Papis		258	—	Running	—	55
37	43	+6	Todd Bodine		227	—	DNF	—	52
38	13	-25	Brad Keselowski		221	—	DNF	—	49
39	27	-12	Aric Almirola		143	—	DNF	—	46
40	8	-32	Mark Martin		121	—	DNF	—	43
41	22	-19	Joe Nemechek		102	—	DNF	—	40
42	35	-7	David Ragan		72	—	DNF	—	37
43	40	-3	Matt Kenseth		6	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 8 matched drivers, the model averaged 13.4 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Kyle Busch	17.0	1	+16.0	Coinflip
13	Joey Logano	14.7	13	+1.7	Coinflip
22	Denny Hamlin	8.2	22	-13.8	High Confidence
24	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	24	-4.1	Moderate
30	Casey Mears	16.9	30	-13.1	Coinflip
32	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	32	-16.6	Coinflip
33	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	33	-14.7	Moderate
38	Brad Keselowski	11.2	38	-26.8	Moderate

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kyle Busch: has 52 career starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with a 11.3 avg finish (7 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 37 career starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with a 13.2 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P22 on the day.

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