NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at New Hampshire

New Hampshire Motor Speedway — June 28, 2009

Joey Logano

Winner

273

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Joey Logano won the 2009 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at New Hampshire at New Hampshire Motor Speedway on June 28, 2009, leading 10 of 273 laps. Jeff Gordon finished second; Kurt Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 14 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, June 28, 2009

Track

New Hampshire Motor Speedway

Season

2009

Winner

Joey Logano

Leaders

14 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	24	+23	Joey Logano		273	—	Running	10	190
2	2	—	Jeff Gordon		273	—	Running	64	175
3	4	+1	Kurt Busch	Dodge	273	—	Running	28	170
4	14	+10	David Reutimann		273	—	Running	—	160
5	1	-4	Tony Stewart		273	—	Running	40	160
6	36	+30	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	273	—	Running	—	150
7	9	+2	Kyle Busch		273	—	Running	—	146
8	26	+18	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	273	—	Running	—	142
9	3	-6	Jimmie Johnson		273	—	Running	93	148
10	13	+3	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	273	—	Running	—	134
11	21	+10	Casey Mears		273	—	Running	—	130
12	12	—	Juan Pablo Montoya		273	—	Running	6	132
13	20	+7	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		273	—	Running	—	124
14	11	-3	Mark Martin		273	—	Running	1	126
15	7	-8	Denny Hamlin		273	—	Running	1	123
16	35	+19	John Andretti		273	—	Running	—	115
17	27	+10	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	273	—	Running	1	117
18	8	-10	Greg Biffle		273	—	Running	1	114
19	5	-14	Carl Edwards		273	—	Running	—	106
20	16	-4	Clint Bowyer		273	—	Running	—	103
21	28	+7	Bobby Labonte		273	—	Running	9	105
22	10	-12	Matt Kenseth		273	—	Running	—	97
23	18	-5	Marcos Ambrose		273	—	Running	—	94
24	29	+5	Michael Waltrip		273	—	Running	—	91
25	34	+9	Robby Gordon		272	—	Running	1	93
26	23	-3	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	272	—	Running	1	90
27	43	+16	Regan Smith		272	—	Running	—	82
28	32	+4	David Stremme	Dodge	272	—	Running	—	79
29	6	-23	Ryan Newman		270	—	Running	17	81
30	33	+3	Paul Menard		267	—	Running	—	73
31	15	-16	Jeff Burton		251	—	Running	—	70
32	30	-2	A.J. Allmendinger	Dodge	238	—	Running	—	67
33	19	-14	Jamie McMurray		237	—	Running	—	64
34	25	-9	Kevin Harvick		231	—	DNF	—	61
35	17	-18	Brian Vickers		190	—	DNF	—	58
36	37	+1	Scott Speed		189	—	DNF	—	55
37	22	-15	Martin Truex, Jr.		174	—	DNF	—	52
38	31	-7	David Ragan		174	—	DNF	—	49
39	39	—	Joe Nemechek		67	—	DNF	—	46
40	38	-2	David Gilliland		48	—	DNF	—	43
41	42	+1	Tony Raines		30	—	DNF	—	40
42	40	-2	Dave Blaney		29	—	DNF	—	37
43	41	-2	Patrick Carpentier		14	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 8 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.8 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Joey Logano	12.1	1	+11.1	Coinflip
6	Brad Keselowski	12.0	6	+6.0	Coinflip
7	Kyle Busch	15.6	7	+8.6	Coinflip
9	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	9	+8.7	Moderate
11	Casey Mears	18.0	11	+7.0	Moderate
15	Denny Hamlin	6.8	15	-8.2	High Confidence
32	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	32	-13.7	Moderate
37	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	37	-23.2	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Joey Logano: has 28 career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a 13.0 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 35 career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a 10.1 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P15 on the day.

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