Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire

New Hampshire Motor Speedway — September 20, 2009

Mark Martin

Winner

300

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Mark Martin won the 2009 Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire at New Hampshire Motor Speedway on September 20, 2009, leading 68 of 300 laps. Denny Hamlin finished second; Juan Pablo Montoya rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, September 20, 2009

Track

New Hampshire Motor Speedway

Season

2009

Winner

Mark Martin

Leaders

10 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	14	+13	Mark Martin		300	—	Running	68	190
2	4	+2	Denny Hamlin		300	—	Running	22	175
3	1	-2	Juan Pablo Montoya		300	—	Running	105	175
4	16	+12	Jimmie Johnson		300	—	Running	14	165
5	9	+4	Kyle Busch		300	—	Running	—	155
6	3	-3	Kurt Busch	Dodge	300	—	Running	33	155
7	18	+11	Ryan Newman		300	—	Running	1	151
8	35	+27	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	300	—	Running	—	142
9	22	+13	Greg Biffle		300	—	Running	—	138
10	17	+7	Clint Bowyer		300	—	Running	—	134
11	26	+15	Brian Vickers		300	—	Running	—	130
12	13	+1	David Reutimann		300	—	Running	—	127
13	19	+6	Casey Mears		300	—	Running	—	124
14	2	-12	Tony Stewart		300	—	Running	52	126
15	10	-5	Jeff Gordon		300	—	Running	—	118
16	32	+16	Jeff Burton		300	—	Running	—	115
17	5	-12	Carl Edwards		300	—	Running	2	117
18	29	+11	Jamie McMurray		300	—	Running	—	109
19	7	-12	Martin Truex, Jr.		300	—	Running	—	106
20	31	+11	Marcos Ambrose		300	—	Running	2	108
21	33	+12	Joey Logano		300	—	Running	—	100
22	8	-14	Bobby Labonte		300	—	Running	1	102
23	38	+15	Matt Kenseth		300	—	Running	—	94
24	28	+4	Robby Gordon		300	—	Running	—	91
25	34	+9	A.J. Allmendinger	Dodge	299	—	Running	—	88
26	41	+15	John Andretti		299	—	Running	—	85
27	21	-6	Michael Waltrip		298	—	Running	—	82
28	6	-22	David Stremme	Dodge	298	—	Running	—	79
29	39	+10	Aric Almirola	Dodge	297	—	Running	—	76
30	37	+7	Erik Darnell		297	—	Running	—	73
31	27	-4	Scott Speed		297	—	Running	—	70
32	12	-20	Kevin Harvick		295	—	Running	—	67
33	42	+9	David Ragan		287	—	Running	—	64
34	40	+6	Paul Menard		287	—	Running	—	61
35	23	-12	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		283	—	Running	—	58
36	25	-11	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	263	—	Running	—	55
37	24	-13	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	162	—	DNF	—	52
38	11	-27	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	66	—	DNF	—	49
39	30	-9	Mike Wallace		48	—	DNF	—	46
40	20	-20	Joe Nemechek		41	—	DNF	—	43
41	43	+2	Michael McDowell		36	—	DNF	—	40
42	15	-27	Dave Blaney		23	—	DNF	—	37
43	36	-7	Tony Raines		8	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 8 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.1 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Denny Hamlin	6.8	2	+4.8	High Confidence
4	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	4	+13.7	Moderate
5	Kyle Busch	15.6	5	+10.6	Coinflip
13	Casey Mears	18.0	13	+5.0	Moderate
19	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	19	-5.2	Coinflip
21	Joey Logano	12.1	21	-8.9	Coinflip
25	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	25	-6.7	Moderate
41	Michael McDowell	15.0	41	-26.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Mark Martin: has 10 career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a 15.0 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 35 career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a 10.1 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P2 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P18. Track history: 24 starts, 10.8 avg finish.

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