NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Charlotte

Charlotte Motor Speedway — May 30, 2010

Kurt Busch

Winner

400

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kurt Busch won the 2010 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Charlotte at Charlotte Motor Speedway on May 30, 2010, leading 252 of 400 laps. Jamie McMurray finished second; Kyle Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 17 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, May 30, 2010

Track

Charlotte Motor Speedway

Season

2010

Winner

Kurt Busch

Leaders

17 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	2	+1	Kurt Busch	Dodge	400	—	Running	252	195
2	27	+25	Jamie McMurray		400	—	Running	29	175
3	9	+6	Kyle Busch		400	—	Running	36	170
4	11	+7	Mark Martin		400	—	Running	—	160
5	6	+1	David Reutimann		400	—	Running	3	160
6	15	+9	Jeff Gordon		400	—	Running	3	155
7	10	+3	Clint Bowyer		400	—	Running	3	151
8	33	+25	Paul Menard		400	—	Running	—	142
9	1	-8	Ryan Newman		400	—	Running	11	143
10	16	+6	Matt Kenseth		400	—	Running	7	139
11	23	+12	Kevin Harvick		400	—	Running	—	130
12	4	-8	Kasey Kahne		400	—	Running	—	127
13	8	-5	Joey Logano		400	—	Running	1	129
14	18	+4	A.J. Allmendinger		400	—	Running	—	121
15	26	+11	Tony Stewart		400	—	Running	1	123
16	31	+15	Carl Edwards		400	—	Running	—	115
17	14	-3	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	400	—	Running	—	112
18	7	-11	Denny Hamlin		400	—	Running	3	114
19	32	+13	Regan Smith		400	—	Running	—	106
20	37	+17	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	400	—	Running	2	108
21	39	+18	Elliott Sadler		400	—	Running	—	100
22	24	+2	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		400	—	Running	10	102
23	3	-20	Martin Truex, Jr.		400	—	Running	1	99
24	35	+11	David Ragan		400	—	Running	1	96
25	12	-13	Jeff Burton		399	—	Running	—	88
26	28	+2	David Gilliland		398	—	Running	1	90
27	25	-2	Bill Elliott		397	—	Running	—	82
28	41	+13	Travis Kvapil		397	—	Running	—	79
29	13	-16	Casey Mears		396	—	Running	—	76
30	21	-9	Scott Speed		395	—	Running	—	73
31	38	+7	Bobby Labonte		395	—	Running	—	70
32	40	+8	Greg Biffle		394	—	Running	—	67
33	36	+3	Robby Gordon		394	—	Running	—	64
34	43	+9	J.J. Yeley		393	—	Running	—	61
35	42	+7	Kevin Conway		393	—	Running	—	58
36	34	-2	Marcos Ambrose		375	—	Running	—	55
37	5	-32	Jimmie Johnson		364	—	Running	36	57
38	20	-18	Juan Pablo Montoya		306	—	DNF	—	49
39	19	-20	Joe Nemechek		46	—	DNF	—	46
40	29	-11	Todd Bodine		41	—	DNF	—	43
41	22	-19	Johnny Sauter		37	—	DNF	—	40
42	30	-12	Michael McDowell		34	—	DNF	—	37
43	17	-26	Dave Blaney		25	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 10 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.6 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
3	Kyle Busch	17.0	3	+14.0	Coinflip
13	Joey Logano	14.7	13	+1.7	Coinflip
14	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	14	+4.3	Moderate
18	Denny Hamlin	8.2	18	-9.8	High Confidence
20	Brad Keselowski	11.2	20	-8.8	Moderate
23	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	23	-7.6	Coinflip
29	Casey Mears	16.9	29	-12.1	Coinflip
34	J.J. Yeley	28.8	34	-5.2	High Confidence
37	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	37	-17.1	Moderate
42	Michael McDowell	17.0	42	-25.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kurt Busch: has 23 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 14.7 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 39 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 11.8 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P18 on the day.
Kyle Busch: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P17. Track history: 68 starts, 8.4 avg finish.

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