NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Charlotte

Charlotte Motor Speedway — October 15, 2011

Matt Kenseth

Winner

334

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Matt Kenseth won the 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Charlotte at Charlotte Motor Speedway on October 15, 2011, leading 46 of 334 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Carl Edwards rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Saturday, October 15, 2011

Track

Charlotte Motor Speedway

Season

2011

Winner

Matt Kenseth

Leaders

10 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	2	+1	Matt Kenseth		334	—	Running	46	47
2	25	+23	Kyle Busch		334	—	Running	111	44
3	3	—	Carl Edwards		334	—	Running	1	42
4	8	+4	Kasey Kahne		334	—	Running	—	40
5	12	+7	Marcos Ambrose		334	—	Running	—	39
6	14	+8	Kevin Harvick		334	—	Running	—	38
7	4	-3	A.J. Allmendinger		334	—	Running	—	37
8	1	-7	Tony Stewart		334	—	Running	94	37
9	17	+8	Denny Hamlin		334	—	Running	—	35
10	6	-4	Ryan Newman		334	—	Running	6	35
11	11	—	David Ragan		334	—	Running	1	34
12	16	+4	Joey Logano		334	—	Running	—	32
13	20	+7	Kurt Busch	Dodge	334	—	Running	—	31
14	32	+18	Juan Pablo Montoya		334	—	Running	2	31
15	5	-10	Greg Biffle		334	—	Running	68	30
16	26	+10	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	333	—	Running	—	28
17	7	-10	Paul Menard		333	—	Running	—	27
18	28	+10	Jeff Burton		333	—	Running	—	26
19	15	-4	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		333	—	Running	—	25
20	31	+11	Brian Vickers		333	—	Running	—	24
21	23	+2	Jeff Gordon		333	—	Running	—	23
22	38	+16	J.J. Yeley		333	—	Running	4	23
23	18	-5	Martin Truex, Jr.		332	—	Running	—	21
24	19	-5	Clint Bowyer		332	—	Running	—	20
25	21	-4	Regan Smith		332	—	Running	—	19
26	29	+3	David Reutimann		332	—	Running	—	18
27	27	—	Jamie McMurray		332	—	Running	—	17
28	30	+2	Landon Cassill		332	—	Running	—	0
29	22	-7	Bobby Labonte		331	—	Running	—	15
30	42	+12	Mike Bliss		331	—	Running	—	0
31	10	-21	Trevor Bayne		329	—	Running	—	0
32	24	-8	Casey Mears		323	—	Running	—	12
33	41	+8	Hermie Sadler		322	—	Running	—	0
34	9	-25	Jimmie Johnson		316	—	Running	1	11
35	35	—	Dave Blaney		292	—	Running	—	9
36	33	-3	David Gilliland		289	—	Running	—	8
37	13	-24	Mark Martin		287	—	Running	—	7
38	43	+5	Robby Gordon	Dodge	33	—	DNF	—	6
39	37	-2	Michael McDowell		30	—	DNF	—	5
40	34	-6	Travis Kvapil		27	—	DNF	—	0
41	36	-5	David Stremme		22	—	DNF	—	3
42	40	-2	Andy Lally	Dodge	20	—	DNF	—	0
43	39	-4	Joe Nemechek		11	—	DNF	—	0

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 10 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.0 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Kyle Busch	17.0	2	+15.0	Coinflip
7	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	7	+11.3	Moderate
9	Denny Hamlin	8.2	9	-0.8	High Confidence
12	Joey Logano	14.7	12	+2.7	Coinflip
16	Brad Keselowski	11.2	16	-4.8	Moderate
22	J.J. Yeley	28.8	22	+6.8	High Confidence
23	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	23	-7.6	Coinflip
32	Casey Mears	16.9	32	-15.1	Coinflip
34	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	34	-14.1	Moderate
39	Michael McDowell	17.0	39	-22.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Matt Kenseth: has 42 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 11.6 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 39 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 11.8 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P9 on the day.
Kyle Busch: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P17. Track history: 68 starts, 8.4 avg finish.

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