NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Chicago

Chicagoland Speedway — September 18, 2011

Tony Stewart

Winner

267

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Tony Stewart won the 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Chicago at Chicagoland Speedway on September 18, 2011, leading 35 of 267 laps. Kevin Harvick finished second; Dale Earnhardt, Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, September 18, 2011

Track

Chicagoland Speedway

Season

2011

Winner

Tony Stewart

Leaders

10 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	26	+25	Tony Stewart		267	—	Running	35	47
2	30	+28	Kevin Harvick		267	—	Running	—	42
3	19	+16	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		267	—	Running	—	41
4	5	+1	Carl Edwards		267	—	Running	39	41
5	6	+1	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	267	—	Running	4	40
6	3	-3	Kurt Busch	Dodge	267	—	Running	64	40
7	21	+14	Clint Bowyer		267	—	Running	—	37
8	4	-4	Ryan Newman		267	—	Running	18	37
9	25	+16	Mark Martin		267	—	Running	—	35
10	12	+2	Jimmie Johnson		267	—	Running	39	35
11	15	+4	David Ragan		267	—	Running	—	33
12	24	+12	Kasey Kahne		267	—	Running	—	32
13	8	-5	Brian Vickers		267	—	Running	—	31
14	16	+2	Juan Pablo Montoya		267	—	Running	—	30
15	22	+7	Jeff Burton		267	—	Running	—	29
16	10	-6	Joey Logano		267	—	Running	—	28
17	13	-4	Regan Smith		267	—	Running	—	27
18	20	+2	Martin Truex, Jr.		267	—	Running	14	27
19	17	-2	Marcos Ambrose		267	—	Running	—	25
20	2	-18	Paul Menard		267	—	Running	—	24
21	1	-20	Matt Kenseth		266	—	Running	46	24
22	9	-13	Kyle Busch		266	—	Running	7	23
23	28	+5	Trevor Bayne		266	—	Running	—	0
24	23	-1	Jeff Gordon		265	—	Running	—	20
25	42	+17	Mike Bliss		265	—	Running	—	0
26	7	-19	Greg Biffle		265	—	Running	—	18
27	18	-9	A.J. Allmendinger		265	—	Running	—	17
28	40	+12	Andy Lally		265	—	Running	—	16
29	41	+12	Casey Mears		265	—	Running	—	15
30	31	+1	Landon Cassill		264	—	Running	—	0
31	27	-4	Denny Hamlin		264	—	Running	—	13
32	29	-3	David Reutimann		263	—	Running	—	12
33	39	+6	Dave Blaney		263	—	Running	—	11
34	32	-2	J.J. Yeley		263	—	Running	1	11
35	35	—	Scott Speed		260	—	Running	—	0
36	38	+2	David Gilliland		259	—	Running	—	8
37	11	-26	Bobby Labonte		236	—	Running	—	7
38	14	-24	Jamie McMurray		163	—	DNF	—	6
39	37	-2	Robby Gordon	Dodge	77	—	DNF	—	5
40	36	-4	Joe Nemechek		45	—	DNF	—	0
41	34	-7	David Stremme		44	—	DNF	—	3
42	43	+1	Josh Wise		41	—	DNF	—	0
43	33	-10	Michael McDowell		25	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 10 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.0 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
5	Brad Keselowski	11.2	5	+6.2	Moderate
10	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	10	+9.9	Moderate
16	Joey Logano	14.7	16	-1.3	Coinflip
18	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	18	-2.6	Coinflip
22	Kyle Busch	17.0	22	-5.0	Coinflip
27	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	27	-8.7	Moderate
29	Casey Mears	16.9	29	-12.1	Coinflip
31	Denny Hamlin	8.2	31	-22.8	High Confidence
34	J.J. Yeley	28.8	34	-5.2	High Confidence
43	Michael McDowell	17.0	43	-26.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Tony Stewart: has 18 career starts at Chicagoland Speedway with a 10.4 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 19 career starts at Chicagoland Speedway with a 14.4 avg finish (1 win), finishing P31 on the day.

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