NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at New Hampshire

New Hampshire Motor Speedway — September 25, 2011

Tony Stewart

Winner

300

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Tony Stewart won the 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at New Hampshire at New Hampshire Motor Speedway on September 25, 2011, leading 2 of 300 laps. Brad Keselowski finished second; Greg Biffle rounded out the podium. The race featured 15 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, September 25, 2011

Track

New Hampshire Motor Speedway

Season

2011

Winner

Tony Stewart

Leaders

15 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	20	+19	Tony Stewart		300	—	Running	2	47
2	16	+14	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	300	—	Running	1	43
3	4	+1	Greg Biffle		300	—	Running	—	41
4	7	+3	Jeff Gordon		300	—	Running	78	42
5	3	-2	Brian Vickers		300	—	Running	4	40
6	27	+21	Matt Kenseth		300	—	Running	—	38
7	26	+19	David Ragan		300	—	Running	1	38
8	23	+15	Carl Edwards		300	—	Running	—	36
9	31	+22	Juan Pablo Montoya		300	—	Running	2	36
10	17	+7	Regan Smith		300	—	Running	3	35
11	8	-3	Kyle Busch		300	—	Running	—	33
12	6	-6	Kevin Harvick		300	—	Running	1	33
13	18	+5	Jeff Burton		300	—	Running	—	31
14	24	+10	Joey Logano		300	—	Running	—	30
15	2	-13	Kasey Kahne		300	—	Running	43	30
16	9	-7	Martin Truex, Jr.		300	—	Running	3	29
17	12	-5	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		300	—	Running	—	27
18	10	-8	Jimmie Johnson		300	—	Running	1	27
19	15	-4	Bobby Labonte		299	—	Running	—	25
20	14	-6	Paul Menard		299	—	Running	—	24
21	13	-8	A.J. Allmendinger		299	—	Running	—	23
22	5	-17	Kurt Busch	Dodge	299	—	Running	4	23
23	25	+2	Jamie McMurray		299	—	Running	—	21
24	21	-3	Mark Martin		299	—	Running	46	21
25	1	-24	Ryan Newman		299	—	Running	62	20
26	11	-15	Clint Bowyer		298	—	Running	49	19
27	32	+5	J.J. Yeley		298	—	Running	—	17
28	19	-9	David Reutimann		298	—	Running	—	16
29	28	-1	Denny Hamlin		298	—	Running	—	15
30	29	-1	Marcos Ambrose		297	—	Running	—	14
31	40	+9	Mike Bliss		296	—	Running	—	0
32	33	+1	David Gilliland		296	—	Running	—	12
33	30	-3	Landon Cassill		294	—	Running	—	0
34	42	+8	Andy Lally		284	—	Running	—	10
35	22	-13	Dave Blaney		80	—	DNF	—	9
36	39	+3	Joe Nemechek		38	—	DNF	—	0
37	35	-2	Michael McDowell		35	—	DNF	—	7
38	34	-4	David Stremme		32	—	DNF	—	6
39	41	+2	Josh Wise		29	—	DNF	—	0
40	36	-4	Robby Gordon	Dodge	28	—	DNF	—	4
41	43	+2	Scott Speed		23	—	DNF	—	0
42	37	-5	Casey Mears		19	—	DNF	—	2
43	38	-5	Travis Kvapil		10	—	DNF	—	0

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 10 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.1 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Brad Keselowski	12.0	2	+10.0	Coinflip
11	Kyle Busch	15.6	11	+4.6	Coinflip
14	Joey Logano	12.1	14	-1.9	Coinflip
16	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	16	-2.2	Coinflip
18	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	18	-0.3	Moderate
21	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	21	-2.7	Moderate
27	J.J. Yeley	28.1	27	+1.1	High Confidence
29	Denny Hamlin	6.8	29	-22.2	High Confidence
37	Michael McDowell	15.0	37	-22.0	Coinflip
42	Casey Mears	18.0	42	-24.0	Moderate

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Tony Stewart: has 20 career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a 10.7 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 35 career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a 10.1 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P29 on the day.

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