NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Kansas

Kansas Speedway — June 5, 2011

Brad Keselowski

Winner

267

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Brad Keselowski won the 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Kansas at Kansas Speedway on June 5, 2011, leading 9 of 267 laps. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. finished second; Denny Hamlin rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, June 5, 2011

Track

Kansas Speedway

Season

2011

Winner

Brad Keselowski

Leaders

9 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	25	+24	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	267	—	Running	9	47
2	28	+26	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		267	—	Running	—	42
3	15	+12	Denny Hamlin		267	—	Running	34	42
4	22	+18	Jeff Gordon		267	—	Running	—	40
5	7	+2	Carl Edwards		267	—	Running	29	40
6	21	+15	Matt Kenseth		267	—	Running	—	38
7	31	+24	Jimmie Johnson		267	—	Running	—	37
8	13	+5	Tony Stewart		267	—	Running	20	37
9	1	-8	Kurt Busch	Dodge	267	—	Running	152	37
10	14	+4	Greg Biffle		267	—	Running	—	34
11	10	-1	Kevin Harvick		267	—	Running	—	33
12	3	-9	Kyle Busch		267	—	Running	11	33
13	19	+6	David Ragan		267	—	Running	—	31
14	17	+3	Kasey Kahne		267	—	Running	—	30
15	12	-3	Ryan Newman		267	—	Running	—	29
16	4	-12	Brian Vickers		267	—	Running	—	28
17	2	-15	Juan Pablo Montoya		266	—	Running	10	28
18	27	+9	Clint Bowyer		266	—	Running	—	26
19	9	-10	Paul Menard		266	—	Running	—	25
20	8	-12	Martin Truex, Jr.		266	—	Running	—	24
21	18	-3	Mark Martin		266	—	Running	—	23
22	23	+1	David Reutimann		266	—	Running	—	22
23	5	-18	Joey Logano		266	—	Running	—	21
24	11	-13	Regan Smith		266	—	Running	—	20
25	16	-9	Jeff Burton		266	—	Running	—	19
26	35	+9	Marcos Ambrose		266	—	Running	—	18
27	26	-1	A.J. Allmendinger		266	—	Running	—	17
28	20	-8	Bobby Labonte		266	—	Running	—	16
29	6	-23	Jamie McMurray		266	—	Running	—	15
30	40	+10	Patrick Carpentier		265	—	Running	—	0
31	39	+8	Andy Lally		265	—	Running	—	13
32	42	+10	Dave Blaney		264	—	Running	—	12
33	38	+5	David Gilliland		263	—	Running	—	11
34	30	-4	Travis Kvapil		243	—	Running	—	0
35	24	-11	Landon Cassill		190	—	DNF	1	0
36	41	+5	Johnny Sauter	Dodge	101	—	DNF	—	0
37	33	-4	Casey Mears		100	—	DNF	1	8
38	32	-6	J.J. Yeley		38	—	DNF	—	6
39	29	-10	David Stremme		37	—	DNF	—	5
40	43	+3	Mike Skinner		34	—	DNF	—	0
41	37	-4	Michael McDowell		33	—	DNF	—	3
42	36	-6	Scott Riggs		20	—	DNF	—	0
43	34	-9	Joe Nemechek		19	—	DNF	—	0

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 10 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.8 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Brad Keselowski	11.2	1	+10.2	Moderate
3	Denny Hamlin	8.2	3	+5.2	High Confidence
7	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	7	+12.9	Moderate
12	Kyle Busch	17.0	12	+5.0	Coinflip
20	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	20	-4.6	Coinflip
23	Joey Logano	14.7	23	-8.3	Coinflip
27	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	27	-8.7	Moderate
37	Casey Mears	16.9	37	-20.1	Coinflip
38	J.J. Yeley	28.8	38	-9.2	High Confidence
41	Michael McDowell	17.0	41	-24.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Brad Keselowski: has 43 career starts at Kansas Speedway with a 14.8 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 42 career starts at Kansas Speedway with a 12.9 avg finish (5 wins), finishing P3 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P7 vs predicted P20. Track history: 26 starts, 9.2 avg finish.

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