NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Watkins Glen

Watkins Glen International — August 14, 2011

Marcos Ambrose

Winner

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Marcos Ambrose won the 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Watkins Glen at Watkins Glen International on August 14, 2011, leading 21 of 92 laps. Brad Keselowski finished second; Kyle Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, August 14, 2011

Track

Watkins Glen International

Season

2011

Winner

Marcos Ambrose

Leaders

8 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	3	+2	Marcos Ambrose		92	—	Running	21	47
2	12	+10	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	92	—	Running	2	43
3	1	-2	Kyle Busch		92	—	Running	49	43
4	9	+5	Martin Truex, Jr.		92	—	Running	—	40
5	13	+8	Joey Logano		92	—	Running	—	39
6	23	+17	Kevin Harvick		92	—	Running	—	38
7	5	-2	Juan Pablo Montoya		92	—	Running	4	38
8	2	-6	A.J. Allmendinger		92	—	Running	8	37
9	40	+31	Jeff Burton		92	—	Running	—	35
10	4	-6	Jimmie Johnson		92	—	Running	1	35
11	19	+8	Clint Bowyer		92	—	Running	1	34
12	8	-4	Carl Edwards		92	—	Running	—	32
13	17	+4	Jeff Gordon		92	—	Running	6	32
14	24	+10	Matt Kenseth		92	—	Running	—	30
15	25	+10	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		92	—	Running	—	29
16	6	-10	Ryan Newman		92	—	Running	—	28
17	14	-3	Jamie McMurray		92	—	Running	—	27
18	20	+2	Brian Vickers		92	—	Running	—	26
19	11	-8	Bobby Labonte		92	—	Running	—	25
20	26	+6	Casey Mears		92	—	Running	—	24
21	36	+15	Andy Lally		92	—	Running	—	23
22	15	-7	Boris Said		92	—	Running	—	22
23	10	-13	Regan Smith		92	—	Running	—	21
24	31	+7	Robby Gordon	Dodge	92	—	Running	—	20
25	22	-3	Mark Martin		92	—	Running	—	19
26	18	-8	Kasey Kahne		92	—	Running	—	18
27	7	-20	Tony Stewart		92	—	Running	—	17
28	16	-12	David Ragan		91	—	Running	—	16
29	39	+10	David Reutimann		91	—	Running	—	15
30	38	+8	Ron Fellows		91	—	Running	—	0
31	28	-3	Greg Biffle		91	—	Running	—	13
32	32	—	Paul Menard		85	—	Running	—	12
33	41	+8	David Gilliland		79	—	Running	—	11
34	43	+9	Terry Labonte		78	—	DNF	—	10
35	35	—	Andrew Ranger		75	—	DNF	—	0
36	42	+6	Denny Hamlin		65	—	DNF	—	8
37	34	-3	T.J. Bell		58	—	DNF	—	7
38	27	-11	Kurt Busch	Dodge	48	—	DNF	—	6
39	29	-10	Scott Speed		45	—	DNF	—	0
40	21	-19	Joe Nemechek		12	—	DNF	—	0
41	33	-8	Michael McDowell		7	—	DNF	—	3
42	30	-12	J.J. Yeley		5	—	DNF	—	2
43	37	-6	Mike Skinner		4	—	DNF	—	0

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 10 matched drivers, the model averaged 13.1 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Brad Keselowski	16.7	2	+14.7	High Confidence
3	Kyle Busch	13.0	3	+10.0	Coinflip
4	Martin Truex, Jr.	16.5	4	+12.5	Coinflip
5	Joey Logano	12.7	5	+7.7	Moderate
8	A.J. Allmendinger	16.5	8	+8.5	Coinflip
10	Jimmie Johnson	16.7	10	+6.7	Moderate
20	Casey Mears	16.7	20	-3.3	Moderate
36	Denny Hamlin	16.7	36	-19.3	Moderate
41	Michael McDowell	13.0	41	-28.0	Moderate
42	J.J. Yeley	21.9	42	-20.1	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Marcos Ambrose: has 11 career starts at Watkins Glen International with a 5.4 avg finish (5 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Joey Logano: was the model’s top pick based on 23 career starts at Watkins Glen International with a 13.2 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P5 on the day.
Brad Keselowski: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P17. Track history: 24 starts, 13.3 avg finish.

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