Brickyard 400

Indianapolis Motor Speedway — July 29, 2012

Jimmie Johnson

Winner

160

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jimmie Johnson won the 2012 Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on July 29, 2012, leading 99 of 160 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Greg Biffle rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, July 29, 2012

Track

Indianapolis Motor Speedway

Season

2012

Winner

Jimmie Johnson

Leaders

9 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	6	+5	Jimmie Johnson		160	—	Running	99	48
2	7	+5	Kyle Busch		160	—	Running	3	43
3	5	+2	Greg Biffle		160	—	Running	4	42
4	20	+16	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		160	—	Running	—	40
5	9	+4	Jeff Gordon		160	—	Running	1	40
6	1	-5	Denny Hamlin		160	—	Running	27	39
7	11	+4	Ryan Newman		160	—	Running	—	37
8	17	+9	Martin Truex, Jr.		160	—	Running	—	36
9	22	+13	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	160	—	Running	22	36
10	28	+18	Tony Stewart		160	—	Running	—	34
11	19	+8	Mark Martin		160	—	Running	—	33
12	15	+3	Kasey Kahne		160	—	Running	—	32
13	27	+14	Kevin Harvick		160	—	Running	—	31
14	8	-6	Paul Menard		160	—	Running	—	30
15	33	+18	Clint Bowyer		160	—	Running	—	29
16	24	+8	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	160	—	Running	—	0
17	18	+1	Trevor Bayne		160	—	Running	—	0
18	14	-4	Regan Smith		160	—	Running	—	26
19	4	-15	Aric Almirola		160	—	Running	—	25
20	23	+3	Marcos Ambrose		160	—	Running	—	24
21	12	-9	Juan Pablo Montoya		160	—	Running	—	23
22	16	-6	Jamie McMurray		160	—	Running	—	22
23	32	+9	Dave Blaney		160	—	Running	—	21
24	26	+2	David Stremme		160	—	Running	—	20
25	38	+13	Landon Cassill		160	—	Running	2	20
26	29	+3	Bobby Labonte		160	—	Running	1	19
27	31	+4	David Gilliland		160	—	Running	—	17
28	36	+8	David Ragan		160	—	Running	—	16
29	2	-27	Carl Edwards		156	—	Running	—	15
30	42	+12	Ken Schrader		156	—	Running	—	14
31	37	+6	Stephen Leicht		154	—	Running	—	13
32	21	-11	Jeff Burton		151	—	Running	—	12
33	3	-30	Joey Logano		144	—	Running	—	11
34	25	-9	Casey Mears		137	—	Running	—	10
35	10	-25	Matt Kenseth		132	—	DNF	1	10
36	13	-23	Kurt Busch		126	—	DNF	—	8
37	30	-7	Travis Kvapil		40	—	DNF	—	7
38	34	-4	Scott Speed		23	—	DNF	—	6
39	41	+2	J.J. Yeley		20	—	DNF	—	5
40	35	-5	Josh Wise		19	—	DNF	—	4
41	40	-1	Scott Riggs		14	—	DNF	—	3
42	39	-3	Mike Skinner		11	—	DNF	—	2
43	43	—	Mike Bliss		5	—	DNF	—	0

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 8 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.4 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	1	+18.9	Moderate
2	Kyle Busch	17.0	2	+15.0	Coinflip
6	Denny Hamlin	8.2	6	+2.2	High Confidence
8	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	8	+7.4	Coinflip
9	Brad Keselowski	11.2	9	+2.2	Moderate
33	Joey Logano	14.7	33	-18.3	Coinflip
34	Casey Mears	16.9	34	-17.1	Coinflip
39	J.J. Yeley	28.8	39	-10.2	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jimmie Johnson: has 16 career starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway with a 14.5 avg finish (4 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 19 career starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway with a 14.5 avg finish, finishing P6 on the day.

Track Preview →