NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Pocono

Pocono Raceway — August 5, 2012

Jeff Gordon

Winner

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jeff Gordon won the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Pocono at Pocono Raceway on August 5, 2012, leading 8 of 98 laps. Kasey Kahne finished second; Martin Truex, Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, August 5, 2012

Track

Pocono Raceway

Season

2012

Winner

Jeff Gordon

Leaders

10 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	27	+26	Jeff Gordon		98	—	Running	8	47
2	4	+2	Kasey Kahne		98	—	Running	1	43
3	15	+12	Martin Truex, Jr.		98	—	Running	—	41
4	31	+27	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	98	—	Running	8	41
5	28	+23	Tony Stewart		98	—	Running	—	39
6	9	+3	Ryan Newman		98	—	Running	—	38
7	17	+10	Carl Edwards		98	—	Running	—	37
8	19	+11	Clint Bowyer		98	—	Running	—	36
9	11	+2	Regan Smith		98	—	Running	—	35
10	5	-5	Marcos Ambrose		98	—	Running	—	34
11	3	-8	Paul Menard		98	—	Running	—	33
12	18	+6	Mark Martin		98	—	Running	—	32
13	14	+1	Joey Logano		98	—	Running	—	31
14	10	-4	Jimmie Johnson		98	—	Running	44	32
15	12	-3	Greg Biffle		98	—	Running	—	29
16	21	+5	Kevin Harvick		98	—	Running	—	28
17	16	-1	Jamie McMurray		98	—	Running	3	28
18	13	-5	Aric Almirola		98	—	Running	—	26
19	25	+6	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	98	—	Running	—	0
20	1	-19	Juan Pablo Montoya		98	—	Running	7	25
21	26	+5	David Gilliland		98	—	Running	—	23
22	23	+1	Jeff Burton		98	—	Running	—	22
23	7	-16	Matt Kenseth		98	—	Running	4	22
24	24	—	David Reutimann		97	—	Running	—	20
25	37	+12	Travis Kvapil		97	—	Running	—	19
26	22	-4	Landon Cassill		97	—	Running	—	18
27	39	+12	Bobby Labonte		96	—	Running	—	17
28	32	+4	David Ragan		96	—	Running	—	16
29	2	-27	Denny Hamlin		90	—	Running	3	16
30	6	-24	Kurt Busch		84	—	Running	3	15
31	41	+10	Jason A. White		81	—	DNF	—	0
32	8	-24	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		80	—	DNF	17	13
33	20	-13	Kyle Busch		74	—	DNF	—	11
34	36	+2	David Stremme		43	—	DNF	—	10
35	29	-6	Casey Mears		40	—	DNF	—	9
36	38	+2	Joe Nemechek		37	—	DNF	—	0
37	34	-3	Josh Wise		34	—	DNF	—	7
38	42	+4	Tony Raines		31	—	DNF	—	6
39	30	-9	Mike Bliss		29	—	DNF	—	0
40	35	-5	J.J. Yeley		27	—	DNF	—	4
41	43	+2	Mike Skinner		26	—	DNF	—	3
42	40	-2	Reed Sorenson		10	—	DNF	—	0
43	33	-10	Scott Riggs		9	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 8 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.7 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
3	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	3	+12.4	Coinflip
4	Brad Keselowski	11.2	4	+7.2	Moderate
13	Joey Logano	14.7	13	+1.7	Coinflip
14	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	14	+5.9	Moderate
29	Denny Hamlin	8.2	29	-20.8	High Confidence
33	Kyle Busch	17.0	33	-16.0	Coinflip
35	Casey Mears	16.9	35	-18.1	Coinflip
40	J.J. Yeley	28.8	40	-11.2	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jeff Gordon: has 47 career starts at Pocono Raceway with a 10.2 avg finish (6 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 38 career starts at Pocono Raceway with a 10.5 avg finish (7 wins), finishing P29 on the day.
Martin Truex, Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P15. Track history: 34 starts, 13.4 avg finish.

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